US embassy cable - 01ABUJA2151

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002151 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2011 
TAGS: PGOV, EAGR, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: GOVERNOR OF KEBBI'S THOUGHTS ON THE 
NIGERIAN POLITICAL SCENE 
 
 
REF: ABUJA 1446 
 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter; Reasons 1.5 (b) 
and (d). 
 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: The Governor of Kebbi, Mohammed Aleiro, 
called on Ambassador Jeter on August 26.  Aleiro was in Abuja 
prior to his trip with President Obasanjo to China.  In 
addition to a discussion of Kebbi-specific issues, Aleiro 
stated that he did not believe Babangida would run against 
Obasanjo in 2003.  He also said rumors that Governor Makarfi 
would challenge the Vice President for his position were 
untrue.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
2. (C) The Governor of Kebbi, Mohammed Aleiro, called on 
Ambassador Jeter on August 26.  Aleiro thanked the Ambassador 
for his June trip to Kebbi State (Reftel), and hoped to have 
further discussions regarding agriculture, education, and 
health care for Kebbi.  The Ambassador informed the Governor 
about the Embassy's Self-Help program, the recently signed 
USD 18.5m agreement between USAID and the National Planning 
Commission and other assistance efforts by the Mission.  The 
Ambassador also offered to arrange a meeting for the Governor 
and his staff with USAID to discuss agricultural development, 
education and healthcare.  Aleiro asked about the value of a 
trip to the United States to seek investment and cooperative 
agreements for Kebbi.  Ambassador Jeter noted that other 
governors had done so with some success, and offered to help 
arrange a visit if the Governor was so inclined. 
 
 
3. (C) The Ambassador mentioned his desire to recommend to 
the President a national conference on HIV/AIDS, which would 
include all of Nigeria's governors and relevant Cabinet 
officials, to sensitize the Nigerian populace on the issue. 
Governor Aleiro was extremely supportive, and stated that he 
would begin discussing this idea with his fellow governors. 
The Ambassador also mentioned that it appeared as though 
Peace Corps would be returning to Nigeria, and offered that 
Kebbi State might be a good place for the Corps to consider, 
once it begins to expand its operations out of Plateau State. 
 Aleiro agreed, and pointed out that Kebbi did not suffer 
from the type of security concerns of many other states. 
 
 
4. (C) The Ambassador, noting that he understood that 
President Obasanjo had originally been the "candidate of the 
North," asked if it was true that the President was now 
unpopular in the North.  Aleiro, who belongs to the 
"opposition APP party," said this was "quite true," but 
opined that there was no viable alternative to Obasanjo. 
Obasanjo had kept Nigeria united and had sustained democracy. 
 Aleiro further explained that there was a "certain group in 
the North" that had always been in or been connected to power 
in Nigeria, but were not in power now.  This group, the 
Governor lamented, was agitating against the President. 
However, Obasanjo had opposed resource control efforts by the 
South-South states, a position supported by Northerners, and 
many in the South-East.  Obasanjo's strong federalism was 
also in the interest of the North, the Governor added.  While 
Obasanjo had demonstrated poor performance on roads, 
electricity, universal basic education and security thus far, 
the Governor praised the President's firm support for 
stability and national unity, positions that were critical 
for Nigeria, especially now.  Thus, Aleiro wanted Obasanjo to 
continue as President. 
 
 
5. (C) The Ambassador asked whether the Governor believed 
former Head of State Babangida (IBB) would run against 
Obasanjo in 2003.  Aleiro said no, and flatly remarked, 
"(His) record in government is nothing to write home about." 
Aleiro said IBB might push a candidate he could control, but 
thought most of IBB's political machinations were for his own 
security and assets; a hedge against any who might try to use 
him as a political scapegoat.  Eventually, all of IBB's 
political associations would merge with PDP (the President's 
party), Aleiro thought.  He added that the south-west, and in 
fact all of Nigeria, would never forget Babangida's annulment 
of the election in 1993, which had been accepted as free and 
fair throughout Nigeria. 
 
 
6. (C) Ambassador Jeter asked the Governor about complaints 
of the North being marginalized in Nigerian politics.  Aleiro 
dismissed this as a "misperception of time and situation" 
among certain groups in the North.  The North had ruled 
Nigeria for a long time, and now had to accept that power 
needed to be shared in the country. 
 
 
7. (C) The Ambassador then asked if the Governor believed the 
President might select another running-mate in the place of 
Vice President Atiku Abubakar, such as Governor Makarfi of 
Kaduna State.  Aleiro stated that a lot of influential 
individuals were pushing Makarfi to challenge the Vice 
President, but he did not believe Makarfi would do so. 
(Makarfi, in fact, has publicly disavowed any intention of 
challenging the VP.)  First, Atiku was a consummate 
politician, and the President could not run a campaign 
successfully without him.  The VP had huge political backing 
from many within the PDP, formerly the People's Democratic 
Movement, and was seen as the political successor of the late 
Shehu Yusa Yar'adua.  The VP was also extremely loyal to the 
President.  Secondly, according to Aleiro, Makarfi had stated 
both to the VP directly and to others that he would not 
campaign for the VP's job.  According to Aleiro, Makarfi had 
said he was not interested in the job as long as Atiku was in 
it, and was more focused on continuing as governor in his 
State. 
 
 
8. (C) COMMENT: Aleiro's comments were revealing.  It was a 
surprise to hear a Northern Governor, and a member of the APP 
party, unambiguously and strongly state his support for 
President Obasanjo.  His criticisms, as well as his 
compliments, of the present Administration were thoughtful, 
and seemed to be an honest assessment.  END COMMENT. 
Jeter