US embassy cable - 04KINSHASA1380

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001380 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: DECL:1.6X.6 
TAGS: PHUM, CG, PGOV PREL, MONUC 
SUBJECT: N. KIVU MILITARY/POLITICAL SITUATION 
 
REF: A. KINSHASA 1117 B. KINSHASA 1376 AND 1377 
 
Classified By: Poloff Meghan Moore for Reasons 1.5 B and D 
 
1. (C) Summary: Poloff, DATT and British DATT visited 
Kisangani and Goma July 19-22 to meet with N. Kivu governor 
Serufuli, N. Kivu Regional Military Commander Obedi, and 
MONUC elements. Obedi no longer appears loyal to the 
transition government, and Serufuli's loyalties are opaque. 
MONUC Goma miloff morale was poor. In recent weeks, MONUC 
Kinshasa has done a poor job separating the important rumors 
from the junk. End Summary. 
 
Kisangani 
--------- 
 
2. (C) On July 19, MONUC miloffs briefed on the current 
situation, operations, and challenges in Orientale (septels 
DAO). Ex-ANC (military wing of the RCD/G) Deputy Military 
Commander said that he had worked with Nkunda in the past and 
that Nkunda was professional and competent, but not a 
charismatic leader and was supported by someone else. He 
added that Nkunda was loyal to principles and if he had made 
an agreement with someone, he would 'go to the end.' Local 
human rights group Groupe Lotus told poloff that human rights 
in Kisangani had improved, but civilians outside the city 
were still subject to abuses by soldiers. For example, ex-ANC 
soldiers man numerous checkpoints along the Congo River, 
collecting taxes from travelers, and stealing merchandise and 
personal belongings from those who cannot pay. Groupe Lotus 
estimates that a traveler from Kisangani to Ubundu (about 60 
miles) pays 2000FC ($5) and goes through 10 checkpoints. 
 
Brigadier General Obedi 
----------------------- 
 
3. (C) N. Kivu Regional Military Commander Obedi 
disingenuously presented himself as an apolitical team player 
who could be counted on to respond to his Kinshasa-based 
military hierarchy. He said he was firmly with the transition 
government, would execute orders from his military 
hierarchy-- including to arrest Nkunda if he entered Goma-- 
and would attack any elements who attempted to enter his 
province. He qualified these statements by saying he could 
not guarantee his troops would follow him, does not receive 
regular military instructions from Kinshasa, the Nkunda 
affair is really about military integration, and there are 
serious reports that 107 Rwandaphones have been killed by 
troops loyal to FARDC S. Kivu Commander Mabe outside Kalehe. 
(Comment: His actions do not support his claims. He failed to 
attend a mid-July Kinshasa meeting of eastern military 
commanders, his brother-in-law Nkunda continues to move 
freely in N. Kivu, and Nkunda used large numbers of ex-ANC 
(RCD/G military wing) N. Kivu troops during his June 
occupation of Bukavu (Ref A). Obedi's claim that his older 
brother's death prevented his attendance at the mid-July 
Kinshasa meeting is dubious at best. End comment). MONUC and 
DATT report that the FARDC is likely to declare Obedi a rebel 
commander in the next few days. 
 
Governor Serufuli 
----------------- 
 
4. (C) N. Kivu Governor Serufuli also appears to be trying to 
keep his options open. On the one hand, he raised RCD/G 
standard complaints that the transition government's failure 
to adequately address the legitimate concerns of ex-ANC 
officers has contributed to the current crisis, raised 
questions about alleged massacres of Rwandaphones by FARDC 
troops and suggested poloff meet with dissident RCD/G 
parliamentarians. He said he has not negotiated between 
Kabila and Nkunda because it is a military problem and he is 
busy working on political issues. On the other hand, he has 
agreed to work with MONUC to repatriate Rwandan Hutu (FDLR) 
elements, and said that Nkunda has two choices-- arrest or 
exile. Serufuli said he favors exile, although he thinks it 
is unlikely that Nkunda will be able to find a country of 
refuge. 
 
Poor MONUC Goma Morale 
---------------------- 
 
5. (C) On July 21, MONUC miloffs briefed on the current 
situation, operations, and challenges (septels DAO) in N. 
Kivu. MONUC Goma miloff and poloff morale was poor. Miloffs 
were pessimistic about the future of the transition, 
elections, and MONUC's revised mandate. MONUC poloff and 
miloffs complained about Kinshasa/field relations and said 
that oftentimes MONUC-Kinshasa believes 'unfounded rumors' 
rather than its staff in the field. On June 21, the Indian 
Aviation Contingent flew 4 sorties at a cost of $50,000 to 
chase down unfounded rumors of 10,000 troops marching on 
Bukavu-- despite US, UK and MONUC field offices reports that 
there were no significant troop movements along the 
Goma-Bukavu road, and indeed the Indian Aviation Contingent 
reported no unusual activity along the road. On June 22, Emb 
team conducted a low-level flight over the area of Kalehe and 
saw no unusual activity, concentrations of people, vehicles, 
boats, or evidence of burned-out buildings. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6. (C) By accident or design, Obedi apparently has become yet 
another ex-ANC dissident commander. As a result, any FARDC 
eastern DRC offensive will probably target Nkunda in northern 
S. Kivu and Obedi in Goma. Serufuli, however, remains a 
wildcard who is motivated by self-interest and the desire to 
maintain his regional power base. He is a shrewd, calculating 
actor who is unlikely to commit firmly to either camp until 
he knows who will win. Although MONUC field offices 
consistently report that Kinshasa does not understand 
dynamics on the ground and changes their messages before 
sending them to New York, assertions that HQ does not trust 
field reporting is a further troubling development. In recent 
weeks, MONUC-Kinshasa has done a poor job of separating the 
important rumors to be verified from the junk. Chasing 10,000 
ghost soldiers from Bukavu to Goma was a waste of $50,000 and 
valuable flight hours. Timely verification of whether FARDC 
S. Kivu Commander Mabe's troops have killed up to 100 
Rwandaphone civilians outside Kalehe would have been a better 
use of MONUC's resources. 
MEECE