US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2367

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002367 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, VE 
SUBJECT: THE CART BEFORE THE HORSE: OPPOSITION PLANS 
PRIMARY FOR AUGUST 29 
 
REF: CARACAS 2248 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Acting Deputy Chief of Mission, for R 
easons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) If the August 15 presidential recall referendum 
passes, opposition leaders propose a primary election, to 
select a unified opposition candidate for the follow-on 
presidential election.  Beyond the apparent front-runner, 
Miranda State governor Enrique Mendoza, other opposition 
leaders inside and outside the Coordinadora Democratica (CD) 
have indicated that they will run in the primary.  The 
biggest challenge for the opposition will be maintaining 
unity before, during, and after the primary.  End summary. 
 
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Si "Si," Opposition Primary Quickly Follows 
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2. (C) If President Hugo Chavez loses the presidential recall 
referendum August 15, a follow-on presidential election must 
occur within thirty days according to the Constitution. 
Opposition leaders have proposed an open primary shortly 
after the August 15 referendum to elect a candidate to 
compete against Chavez in the presidential election.  (Note: 
Opposition leaders presume that Chavez will be able to run in 
the election although no official decision has been made by 
the Supreme Court.)  Fernando Martinez Mottola, consultant to 
the Coordinadora Democratica and leader of the group drafting 
the opposition's Governance Accord, told poloff on July 15 
that the Accord will define the process for the primary.  The 
Accord, released on July 25, is designed to provide a set of 
guiding principles for a transition government, but will also 
set guidelines for an opposition primary.  The Accord states 
that the unified candidate will be "selected through a 
primary election and the candidate will promise not to seek 
immediate re-election in 2006."  The guiding political, 
economic, and social principles are more broad than Plan 
Consenso Pais (reftel), but it shares the same short-term, 
transition period time horizon. 
 
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Open to All 
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3. (C) Martinez asserted that the primary would be open to 
all Venezuelans.  Americo Martin, a CD leader and possible 
transition president candidate, told poloff on July 8 that he 
supported an open primary.  Martin discounted the possibility 
of Chavez supporters skewing an open primary by 
participating.  Alejandro Armas told poloff on July 16 that 
he supports a closed primary election where only people who 
signed the firmazo can vote.  Pompeyo Marquez_, a Coordinadora 
spokesman, told poloff on July 21 that he supports a primary 
restricted to the firmazo list as well.  He asserted that the 
unified candidate of the opposition should be selected by 
opposition supporters.  Alfredo Larrazabal, a Sumate leader 
and member of the "Group for a Unified Candidate" committee, 
told poloff on July 15 that the Group would recommend an open 
primary to promote a democratic, inclusive process to choose 
an opposition unified candidate. 
 
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August 29 - Calm After the August 15 Storm 
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4. (C) Many opposition leaders, including Martinez, have said 
the primary would be held on August 22, one week after the 
referendum.  However, Martinez told poloff on July 15 that 
the Accord would recommend an August 29 primary.  The days 
immediately after August 15 will be chaotic, Martinez 
predicted, and will not allow the opposition to begin the 
primary election process until at least mid-week.  He said 
the opposition will need two weeks to process the referendum 
 
 
results and then proceed with the coordination of primary 
logistics and campaigning.  Larrazabal reaffirmed that the 
"Group for a Unified Candidate" would recommend August 29 as 
the date of the primary election. He said the Group is 
recommending a three-day candidate enrollment period and a 
nine-day campaign period between the August 15 referendum and 
the proposed August 29 primary. 
 
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Meet the Candidates 
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5. (C) Eight leading candidates have emerged for the 
opposition to date: Enrique Mendoza, Henrique Salas Romer, 
Americo Martin, Pompeyo Marquez_, Gerver Torres, Enrique 
Tejera Paris, Cecilia Sosa, and Antonio Ledezma.  Other names 
have been mentioned, but various factors make their candidacy 
unlikely.  Julio Borges, the Primero Justicia National 
Coordinator, is considered to be too young and prefers to 
wait for a later opportunity.  Alejandro Armas, a Solidaridad 
National Assembly Deputy, is in very poor health.  Manuel 
Cova, President of the National Workers' Confederation (CTV), 
has publicly stated that he will not be a candidate in the 
primary (and he has been a lackluster public figure).  Of the 
eight candidates, Enrique Mendoza is the apparent 
front-runner, but 1998 presidential candidate and Carabobo 
state Governor Henrique Salas Romer is presenting himself as 
a strong candidate.  The other six candidates appear to be 
unlikely to win a primary if Mendoza and Salas run, but are 
presenting themselves as candidates to jockey for political 
positions in an opposition government and/or present a 
particular political agenda. 
 
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Front-runners 
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6. (C) Enrique Mendoza is the front-runner in a number of 
opposition polls.  The June 2004 Greenberg poll showed 
Mendoza as the clear winner in a opposition primary.  While 
Mendoza is considered an important leader of the opposition 
and the Coordinadora Democratica, his support among 
non-aligned and moderate Chavista voters is weak.  Armas 
believes Mendoza has legitimacy within the opposition ranks 
and should be able to win a primary.  However, Mendoza might 
wait for the 2006 presidential election due to the Governance 
Accord's clause that commits an opposition transition 
president to not seek re-election in 2006. 
 
7. (C) Henrique Salas Romer lost the 1998 presidential 
election to Hugo Chavez and has become an alienated voice 
within the opposition, particularly within the Coordinadora 
Democratica.  Salas, who is Governor of Carabobo state and 
patriarch of Proyecto Venezuela, is rallying support within 
Carabobo by campaigning for the proposed primary in 
conjunction with referendum campaigning.  Like Mendoza, Salas 
could win an opposition primary, but would face difficulty 
garnering support from non-aligned and moderate Chavista 
voters.  Larrazabal, the Sumate leader in charge of the 
primary, said Salas has given initial indications that he 
would support a primary.  A considerable fear within the 
opposition is that Salas would reject the primary and present 
himself as a candidate for the presidential election 
regardless of the primary's outcome.  Thus, Salas and the 
unified opposition candidate chosen in the primary would 
compete against Chavez, which would virtually guarantee a 
Chavez victory.  Like Mendoza, Salas has longer-term 
presidential aspirations.  Due to political maneuvering and 
the re-election clause in the Governance Accord, Salas could 
decide to wait until 2006 to run for president. 
 
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Dark Horses 
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8. (C) Americo Martin, a Coordinadora leader and former 
leftist revolutionary, told poloff on July 8 that he is 
preparing to present himself as a candidate for the primary. 
 
 
Martin said he seeks to gain support from Accion Democratica 
(AD) and Salas' Proyecto Venezuela (PV).  Martin asserted 
that he can attract voters from the non-aligned and moderate 
Chavista camps, while securing the traditional opposition 
votes.  He sharply criticized Mendoza's campaign, asserting 
that Mendoza cannot attract voters outside traditional 
opposition parties.  While Martin could theoretically attract 
more left-oriented votes, his limited support within the 
opposition and nationally are inhibiting factors for his 
candidacy. 
 
9. (C) Pompeyo Marquez_, a Coordinadora spokesman, has not 
presented himself as a candidate, but his name is often 
mentioned.  Marquez_, an octogenarian and former leftist 
rebel, could use his less traditional opposition roots to 
solicit support from non-aligned and Chavista voters.  In 
addition, Marquez_ has broad support within the opposition. 
Group of Professionals for Yes, an organization that seeks to 
gain the support of 700,000 Venezuelan professionals, named 
Marquez_ its honorary director.  While Marquez_ may enjoy the 
support of many potential voting blocks, he is not a strong 
candidate.  Marquez_ emphatically told poloff on July 21 that 
he will not present himself as a candidate for the primary. 
 
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Long Shots 
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10. (C) Gerver Torres is the leader of A Dream for Venezuela, 
an NGO that promotes reconciliation and reunification through 
a long-term vision for Venezuela.  Torres told poloff July 13 
that he would present himself as a candidate, but he viewed 
his candidacy as mechanism to present his NGO's vision for 
Venezuela.  Torres, until recently affiliated with Harvard 
University and a former official in the Carlos Andres Perez 
government, is not part of the Coordinadora.  Enrique Tejera 
Paris, another octogenarian and career technocrat, has 
offered his candidacy, but has received little media coverage 
or opposition support.  Cecilia Sosa, former President of the 
Supreme Court, told poloffs on June 25 that she would present 
herself as a candidate if "the people asked her to run." 
Antonio Ledezma, President of Alianza Bravo Pueblo, has been 
shunned by the Coordinadora and would present his candidacy 
as a means to advance his political career.  Tejera, Sosa, 
and Ledezma have been active to varying degrees in the 
Coordinadora. 
 
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Comment 
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11. (C) Two distinct opposition strategies exist for the 
primary and the unified candidate.  The opposition could 
shoot for their core constituency, particularly people who 
have signed the firmazo and are from traditional opposition 
parties.  However, the Coordinadora could launch a campaign 
to attract votes from non-aligned and moderate Chavista 
groups.  The above candidates represent both strategies.  If 
the opposition is focusing on its core constituency, Mendoza 
and Salas are the leading candidates.  If the opposition 
seeks to attract new votes, Marquez_ or Martin would be more 
inclusive candidates.  If there is a primary, that vote will 
decide the candidate.  If all candidates discussed present 
themselves, then a Mendoza or Salas victory is a likely bet. 
It is possible, however, that Mendoza and/or Salas will 
choose not to participate and recommend one of the other 
candidates.  Considering that this is a transition 
presidency, political jockeying and "saving oneself" for a 
future election are distinct possibilities.  In addition, the 
recently-released Governance Accord calls for the 
opposition's unified candidate to commit to not seek 
re-election if elected to the transition presidency. 
 
12. (C) The first priority of the opposition, reflected in 
its strategy and campaigning, is the August 15 presidential 
recall referendum.  However, opposition leaders and Sumate 
are working to create the framework for an opposition primary 
on August 29.  An open primary two weeks after the referendum 
 
 
will limit campaigning to the benefit of better known 
candidates such as Mendoza and Salas.  While uncertainty will 
envelope the process until the actual primary, the opposition 
is working to develop a strategy that will select a candidate 
in an open manner and maintain unity. 
McFarland 
 
 
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      2004CARACA02367 - CONFIDENTIAL