US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN1648

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001648 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE, EUR/PGI, DRL, 
DEPT PLEASE PASS USAID 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, AM 
SUBJECT:  PUBLIC DEBATE MARKS FIRST YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF 
ARMENIA'S GOVERNING COALITION 
 
 
1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect 
accordingly. 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
2. (SBU) Both supporters and critics of the ruling 
parliamentary coalition in Armenia's National Assembly took 
advantage of its one-year anniversary to stage public 
debates on its effectiveness and prospects for its future. 
Coalition leaders from the Republican Party of Armenia, 
"Orinats-Yerkir" (Country of Law) Party, and the Armenian 
Revolutionary Forces ("ARF" or "Dashnaksutyun") made 
relatively tame statements regarding the anniversary while 
National Assembly Speaker Artur Baghdasaryan lunged at the 
opportunity to showcase his contributions, the state of NA 
relations with the Executive and legislative "successes" of 
the past year.  Critics were quick to respond to 
Baghdasaryan's claims in both the press and during public 
meetings with their evaluation of NA effectivenes, claiming 
that the National Assembly's activities were at best only 
moderately successful.  With the opposition still boycotting 
and rumors of continued delays in parliament, some analysts 
claimed that the coalition's most significant feat over the 
past year had been that of survival.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
BAGHDASARYAN POINTS TO BIG NUMBERS AS BIG SUCCESS 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
3. (SBU) Taking advantage of the one-year anniversary of the 
ruling coalition, Speaker Artur Baghdassaryan again leapt 
into the public eye congratulating himself and governing 
coalition MPs for what he characterized as a record year of 
success in the NA.  Baghdasaryan stated that the National 
Assembly had been more productive than ever in terms of 
initiatives and legislation passed during his first year as 
Speaker and under the leadership of the governing coalition. 
He pointed to discussion of Constitutional Reform, the 
Electoral Code, and reforms involving the judiciary system 
and self-governing bodies as headlines from this year's 
deliberations.  According to Baghdasaryan, the National 
Assembly circulated 223 bills, adopted 178 laws and 418 
decisions and ratified 78 treaties during the 2003-2004 
session.  (Note:  Roughly half of the bills cited were 
government initiatives.  End Note.)  Baghdasaryan took 
advantage of anniversary events to note the prolonged 
absence of the opposition MPs during their current boycott. 
He portrayed them as petty, partisan, and uninvolved during 
the Spring session.  He stopped short of blaming them for 
recent delays in the National Assembly and responded 
defensively to suggestions that their absence was due in 
part to his failure to coax them back into Parliament. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
CRITICS:  COALITION "PARTIALLY SUCCESSFUL AT BEST" 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
4. (SBU) Critics of the coalition used the one-year 
anniversary of the governing coalition to argue that the 
coalition did not deliver on lofty promises made just one 
year ago.  Pointing to the Memorandum of Political Coalition 
signed by the leaders of the coalition in June 2003, 
journalists said the coalition stopped short of its stated 
goals to move ahead on constitutional reforms, enact 
legislation on the electoral system, refine economic policy 
implementation and legislate strong anti-corruption 
measures.  Critics pointed to certain "failures" as a 
discouraging sign for the prospects of this and any future 
governing coalition in Armenia.  They claimed that the 
coalition responded only to requests by the President and 
had turned the NA into a "ritualistic body" lacking 
legislative creativity or depth.  They portrayed the NA's 
discussion of constitutional reform as merely a response to 
the personal wish of the President.  Critics were also 
negative about the NA's work on electoral reform, saying any 
outcome would most likely be limited to stipulating the 
party rights of parliamentary majorities.  Despite these 
criticisms and claims that the NA was far too subject to the 
President, journalists and analysts admitted that the 
coalition did manage to stabilize relations with GOAM 
ministries. 
 
------------------------------- 
COMMENT:  QUALITY, NOT QUANTITY 
------------------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) The coalition's numbers at first seem impressive 
when compared to previous sittings of the National Assembly. 
Baghdasaryan's superficial inventory of legislative 
achievements and skeptical private comments by MPs, however, 
leave one to wonder how much Baghdasaryan or other coalition 
members truly believe the anniversary fanfare.  The fact 
that the coalition has lasted a year admittedly came as a 
surprise to many in Yerevan.  Critics are correct in 
asserting that at the very least the coalition managed to 
not only survive but to thrive, with the most interesting 
political wrangling in Armenia taking place within the 
coalition rather than between the coalition and opposition. 
ORDWAY