US embassy cable - 04DUBLIN1101

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 001101 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR S/P AND EUR/UBI; NSC FOR VOLKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2014 
TAGS: EI, PGOV, PINR, PREL, PTER, UK, EUN, NIPP 
SUBJECT: NORTHERN IRELAND - IRISH PM TELLS SPECIAL ENVOY 
REISS THAT IRISH AND BRITS READY FOR ONE FINAL PUSH TO 
CLOSE A DEAL 
 
REF: LONDON 4943 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR JAMES KENNY PER 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  U.S. Special Envoy for Northern Ireland 
Mitchell Reiss  met on June 30 in Dublin with Irish Prime 
Minister Ahern and Foreign  Minister Brian Cowen to review 
Irish/British efforts to lay the ground work for another 
effort at restoring devolved government in NI.   Ahern 
confirmed that he and British PM Blair are prepared to host 
one last round of "hot house" negotiations with Sinn Fein 
(SF) and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in the middle of 
September at a remote site in Scotland on an agreement to 
restore devolved government in Northern Ireland (NI).  If 
those talks fail, Ahern indicated that a "plan B" (along the 
lines suggested by the Social Democratic Labour Party (SDLP)) 
for standing up NI institutions with a caretaker technocratic 
government might be worth considering.  Subsequently, 
however, key Irish officials told the Ambassador and DCM that 
the GOI does not wish to float any notions of a "plan B" in 
advance of September meetings.  Ahern and Cowen both 
expressed concern that the traditional July-August summer 
holiday season may keep SF and DUP from adequately preparing 
for intensive negotiations in early September.  Cowen will 
have staff here in August working on plans.  End Summary 
 
MEETING WITH PM AHERN: THERE ARE DANGERS WITH A PLAN B 
BUT SDLP PROPOSAL MAY HAVE SOME MERIT 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
2.  (C) Attending with PM Ahern were his senior foreign 
policy advisor, Michael Collins, and Assistant Secretary Paul 
McGarry.  Accompanying Special Envoy Reiss were Ambassador 
Kenny, S/P Green, and Emboff.  Ahern said that there must be 
a concerted effort in September to get a SF-DUP deal; "we 
can't keep going the way we have been."  He agreed with 
Reiss' observation that the key ingredients for an agreement 
are convincing the parties that September is a make-or-break 
situation, helping SF leader Gerry Adams do a deal, and 
getting DUP commitments on implementation (of the deal). 
Also, there must be a credible "plan B" in reserve.  Ahern 
noted that SF now has the political power and position to 
move forward, "but I don't know if they will."  Ahern said 
that he was impressed with the DUP, but its proposed 
six-month hiatus (between a deal and implementation) is a 
non-starter because republicans will not accept that long 
gap; and it brings events too close to UK elections and 
Blair's upcoming (1/1/05) responsibilities as G-8 Chairman 
and EU President. 
 
3.  (C) Reiss agreed that DUP was showing an encouraging 
willingness to engage, adding that the parties can always 
negotiate an agreement in principle and a shorter timeframe 
for implementation, such as three months.  The key is 
implementation because it is unrealistic to expect SF to "pay 
up front" with no guarantee of a deal.  Ahern said the 
elements of a deal are clear, but it is important to keep all 
of the other parties involved as well.  The last elections 
virtually eliminated the PUP and the Women's Coalition; the 
Alliance Party is significantly weakened; and SDLP and the 
UUP could lose all their Westminster seats in the next 
general election (to SF and DUP). 
 
4.  (C) Ahern said SF and the DUP cannot be allowed to hold 
up the entire devolution process indefinitely.  He noted that 
Blair,s October 2002 &Acts of Completion8 speech in 
Belfast failed spectacularly to bolster moderate unionism and 
the DUP continues to gain at UUP's expense.  The question is 
how to pressure the DUP to deal?  Ahern said two points were 
certain:  SF can't be excluded from a deal, and it must be 
done within the parameters of the Good Friday Agreement 
(GFA).  Without it, nationalist voters will walk away, and 
the NI public generally will grow more skeptical of 
devolution.  For this reason, of the plan B proposals being 
circulated, the SDLP,s proposal or some variation &is not a 
bad one.8 (Note: SDLP recently proposed that the two 
governments (London and Dublin) nominate 10 administrators 
for the 10 government departments in order to get some form 
of devolved government up and running.  End note.) 
 
5. (C)  Reiss said the U.S. agreed there are merits to the 
SDLP,s proposal.  Moreover, the threat of a viable plan B 
might be a useful inducement to get the parties to deal in 
September.  Reiss asked what Dublin and London were doing to 
prepare the ground for September and offered to send Ahern 
some thoughts on this soon.  Ahern said there were better 
prospects for success in September if the parties were 
working off one text that ring-fenced areas of agreement and 
bracketed the major remaining unresolved issues: fulfilling 
commitments under the Joint Declaration, the Finucane 
inquiry, On The Runs (OTRs), and release of the murderers of 
Garda Gerry McCabe.  Reiss asked whether the Finucane case 
was a potential deal breaker.  Ahern said it is not a 
republican, but a nationalist, issue.  Because there is such 
broad-based support across the nationalist community in the 
North for an inquiry, SF will insist on it.  Ahern added that 
the results of a Finucane inquiry report tomorrow would not 
surprise anyone and "Tony (Blair) knows what he has to do." 
(Comment: Presumably, that the PM will have to overrule 
elements of the security-legal establishments to see that 
some form of public inquiry is held.  End comment.) 
 
6.  (C)  Taioseach advisor Collins noted that SF knows there 
can be no deal without decommissioning - "everyone knows what 
needs to be done."  Ahern added that another secret 
decommissioning act will not work; SF must understand that 
without transparency it will get no credit from DUP leader 
Paisley.  Ahern noted that a clergyman in contact with Adams 
(Church of Ireland (Episcopal) leader Archbishop Eames) might 
act as a witness.  His participation might be seen by 
unionists as lending credibility.  Ahern said that the way to 
get SF on the policing boards is a deal that devolves 
policing/justice relatively quickly in exchange for an end to 
paramilitary activity and complete decommissioning.  But, he 
added, DUP does not yet understand this.  Reiss said that he 
would reinforce this when he met with DUP leaders on July 28. 
 
MEETING WITH FM COWEN: GOI READY FOR 
FULL COURT PRESS IN SEPTEMBER 
------------------------------------ 
 
7.  (C) Reiss subsequently met with Irish Foreign Minister 
Brian Cowen, who was accompanied by DFA SecGen Dermot 
Gallagher, Anglo-Irish Division Head Brendan Scannell, and 
DFA officials Dermot Brangan and Kate Slattery.  Cowen said 
that, even though DUP leader Paisley wants to do a deal, the 
main worry going into the September talks is that the parties 
will delay an agreement to get a better deal:  "this is why 
we discuss plan Bs." Cowen added that, nonetheless, the GOI 
is going into September "with all guns blazing."  Reiss asked 
what will the market bear in terms of pain to the parties. 
That is, he suggested that the parties discuss a plan B 
publicly and privately to pressure both the DUP and SF. 
Reiss added that SF-DUP dialogue over the next two months 
approaching September is critical and asked whether a &stick 
and carrot8 approach to Sinn Fein (SF) might be adopted and 
result in forward motion.  Scannell cautioned that it is 
difficult to find a stick that won't alienate SF and 
destabilize/set back the entire process.  Cowen reiterated PM 
Ahern's endorsement that talks in September focus around a 
bracketed text. 
 
8.  (C) Cowen said that the key factor at present is the DUP 
willingness to pre-cook a deal.  This should allow SF to 
seriously engage, get an agreement, and then proceed with 
sequencing.  In terms of offering a carrot, Scannell 
suggested that the DUP needs to feel &flattered.8  He noted 
that party members are visiting the Kennedy School of 
Government in Harvard during the month of July, and it may be 
opportune to invite them to Washington for consultations and 
to drive home the message that the opportunity for a deal is 
there. Cowen said that the DUP must understand that changes 
on Strand One of the GFA would need to be offset by changes 
to Strand Two.  He added that the issue of First Minister and 
Deputy First Minister must be resolved sooner rather than 
later.  On decommissioning, Cowen suggested that one way to 
get transparency without breaching confidentiality would be 
to publish retrospectively the index listing a full inventory 
of guns and explosives following total decommissioning. 
 
9. (C)  Reiss asked how firm was the DUP's demand for a 
six-month &decontamination8 period prior to SF taking seats 
at the Executive table.  Cowen replied that 6 months is a 
negotiating position, and "in fairness" DUP is ready to do a 
"big bang" deal now.  Cowen noted that the devolution of 
justice is a critical issue for SF, and Finucane is a 
potential deal breaker -- it is a &hot button topic8 that 
is not going to go away. 
KENNY