US embassy cable - 04ROME2873

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ROME 002873 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
FROM U.S. MISSION TO THE UN AGENCIES IN ROME 
STATE PASS TO USDA FAS FOR U/S PENN, JBUTLER, MCHAMBLISS, LREICH, 
RHUGHES 
STATE FOR IO A/S HOLMES, DAS MILLER IO/EDA, E, EB; 
AID FOR EGAT, DCHA/OFDA, DCHA/FFP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2009 
TAGS: AORC, EAGR, PREL, KUNR, FAO 
SUBJECT: FAO DIRECTOR GENERAL ELECTION: DIOUF STACKS THE 
DECK WITH EARLY SUPPORT FROM AFRICA, NEAR EAST, CARIBBEAN 
 
REF: A. (A) 03 ROME 4556 
 
     B. (B) 03 ROME 5655 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Tony P. Hall 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  At the FAO Conference in November 2005, 
member governments will elect a Director General (DG) for a 
six-year term, beginning January 2006.  The incumbent, 
Jacques Diouf (Senegal), who has been in office since 1993, 
as a still-unannounced candidate, has already garnered 
endorsements for re-election from the African Union (AU), the 
Organization of Islamic Conferences (OIC) and the Caribbean 
Community (Caricom).  If the countries belonging to these 
three organizations maintain internal discipline and vote as 
a block, Diouf already has enough votes for re-election. 
 
2.  (C)  Perhaps sensing that Diouf may be unstoppable, no 
government has seriously proposed a challenger.  Unless an 
attractive candidate stands up in the next few weeks, OECD 
countries -- who clearly signaled a desire for change in FAO 
and who successfully pushed through term limits that take 
effect in 2005 (but that do not apply to the incumbent) -- 
may be facing a fait accompli, despite persistent but 
discreet efforts to encourage other candidacies.  In that 
case, our best option will be to see what we can get as a 
condition to tacit OECD acquiescence to Diouf's re-election 
and continued OECD budgetary support.  These might include 
significant commitments from the DG to further institutional 
reforms.  End summary. 
 
THE PROCESS 
 
3.  (U)  Elections for DG will take place by secret ballot at 
the ministerial-level FAO Conference to be held in Rome 19-26 
November 2005.  According to FAO General Rule XXXVI, the DG 
is elected by a majority of votes cast.  If no candidate 
receives a majority, an additional ballot is held, after 
which the candidate with the least votes is eliminated. 
Additional ballots may be held until one candidate receives 
the required majority.  The previous FAO Conference, in 
December 2003, amended the organization's Constitution to 
specify that the DG shall be appointed by the Conference for 
a term of six years, with the possibility of reappointment 
only once for a further term of four years.  The amendment is 
silent on the application of such a limit on the incumbent 
(ref B, para 22). 
 
AFRICANS, ISLAMICS, CARIBS PLEDGE SUPPORT 
 
4.  (SBU)  In recent months, FAO DG Jacques Diouf has been 
almost continually on the road quietly soliciting support for 
a third term.  Although he has not announced his candidacy, 
he has been very successful in lining up support.  Three 
major organizations have already formally expressed support 
for Diouf's re-election: 
 
-- the Organization of Islamic Conferences (OIC), at a 
meeting of foreign ministers in Istanbul, 14-16 June; 
 
-- Caricom, at its Conference of Heads of Government held in 
Grenada 4-7 July; and 
 
-- the African Union, at its Assembly in Addis Ababa, 6-8 
July. 
 
LATIN AMERICA DIVIDED 
 
5.  (C)  For some time, Latin American permreps in Rome have 
indicated that they felt it was their region's turn for the 
FAO DG position.  Although they made some tentative 
suggestions of possible Latin candidates, there was no 
serious follow-up.  A trusted contact in the Latin American 
and Caribbean Group (Grulac) recently told us that the Latin 
Americans are now divided, with some already expressing 
support for Diouf. 
 
OECD, WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS, STILL SEEKS CHANGE 
 
6.  (C)  The OECD Group has been the principal advocate for 
change at the top of FAO, having spearheaded the 
reintroduction of term limits.  However, with prospects for 
an FAO DG from the industrialized world being slim (the two 
other UN agencies in Rome are headed by an American and a 
Swede, respectively), the OECD has been limited to the 
indirect role of encouraging the G-77 to come up with good 
 
 
candidates.  An additional complication has been the 
emergence of fault lines within the EU.  We are told that 
there was a European Council decision in 1996 stipulating 
that the EU would as a matter of policy not support heads of 
international agencies for a third term.  With respect to 
Jacques Diouf, most EU members have taken this decision to 
mean exactly what it says.  France and Italy, however, have 
argued at recent coordination meetings in Brussels that Diouf 
could be grandfathered in at FAO for another term, given that 
the recent amendment to the FAO Constitution is purposely 
silent on the incumbent. 
 
DOING THE ARITHMETIC 
 
7.  (C)  Our preliminary back-of-the-envelope calculations 
suggest that Diouf may already have his re-election sewn up, 
with the endorsement of the AU (53 members), Caricom (15 
members, of which 14 are FAO members), and OIC (29 non-AU, 
non-Caricom members).  If these three regional/religious 
groups maintain internal discipline -- admittedly a big 
assumption in a secret ballot -- then Diouf could count on 
roughly 53   14   29 = 96 votes. 
 
8.  (SBU)  FAO currently has 188 members.  If all of them 
attend and vote at the next Conference, then a simple 
majority of 95 would be enough to elect a new DG.  By this 
simple calculation Diouf already has the votes he needs. 
 
9.  (C)  The situation is of course somewhat more 
complicated.  Some FAO members will probably not be able to 
vote as a result of unpaid arrears, as was the case for some 
35 countries at the 2003 Conference.  These may be 
disproportionately G-77 countries, and their nonvoting status 
might hurt Diouf disproportionately.  At the same, time, 
however, Diouf could probably count on support from at least 
some Latin American, non-OIC Asian, and Pacific Island 
nations.  The bottom line remains that Diouf probably already 
has the votes he needs for another term. 
 
WHAT NOW? 
 
10.  (C)  Since the last FAO Conference in 2003, it has been 
recognized by champions of reform at FAO that there would be 
only a limited period of time for countries to put forward 
and build support for alternative candidates for DG.  It now 
seems almost certain that that window is about to close, if 
it hasn't already.  Being the astute politician that he is, 
Diouf has been able to consolidate his position through 
skillful handling of the needs of some G-77 constituencies 
and opportune use of international fora such as FAO Regional 
Conferences and meetings of the AU, Caricom and OIC. 
 
11.  (C)  Although the window is now barely open, it may not 
necessarily yet be too late of head off a third term. 
Regional group unity could conceivably be broken -) again, 
the vote is by secret ballot.  Unless an extraordinarily 
strong and respected fresh candidate comes forward before the 
end of the summer, however, the game is over in our view.  We 
should begin thinking about how to take advantage of an 
all-but-inevitable Diouf re-election to help further our 
objectives of continued strengthening and reform of FAO. 
 
12.  (C)  We should begin by recognizing that -- 
notwithstanding our longstanding hopes for fresh blood and 
new leadership at FAO -- Diouf remains someone we can work 
with constructively.  In the past decade as DG, he instituted 
significant improvements at FAO, and he did so during a 
period of severe belt tightening.  Ref A paras 9-17 provided 
an in-depth look at the strengths and weaknesses of Jacques 
Diouf as Director General.  We recognized significant 
accomplishments, while regretting his shortcomings as a 
manager and leader, and the impact this has on the agency's 
effectiveness and staff morale.  Diouf's continued support 
for standard-setting bodies such as Codex Alimentarius and 
his recent course correction on biotechnology provide 
indications that he can continue to help advance U.S. and 
OECD interests, even though he remains in some respects the 
G-77's standard bearer. 
 
13.  (C)  For now, however, we should unbendingly stand on 
principle that we do not support third-term candidates in UN 
bodies, and that this applies to FAO, as well.  The prospect 
that he might win a third-term at a terrible price in terms 
of lost US support, tangible and moral, should hang over 
Diouf,s candidacy.  Diouf is too crafty a politician not to 
 
 
realize that a divisive election -) especially one that pits 
the OECD against the G-77 )- would get his next term off to 
a bad start, and that any chance for a successful term would 
depend on the continued support of the major donor countries 
such as the U.S., Japan and UK.  Recent discussions with 
senior Diouf lieutenants indicate to us that Diouf knows well 
that he has a strong interest in coming to some sort of 
accommodation with us before the November 2005 Conference. 
This pre-election season at FAO therefore offers an 
opportunity to secure Diouf's support for issues of concern 
to us.  Key among those would be his backing for an 
independent external assessment of FAO. 
 
HALL 
 
 
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 2004ROME02873 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL