US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS3126

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 003126 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT:  THE BARROSO COMMISSION: MORE OLD FACES 
THAN NEW ONES 
 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  The next EU Commission to take office on 
November 1, 2004, will have 25 members, including 
its President.  A majority of them are already in 
place: they are from the ten new Member States, 
having joined on May 1 and looking for a full five- 
year mandate, or from the former EU-15 and also 
expecting to be re-nominated by their governments. 
Now that the European Parliament (EP) has confirmed 
him as Commission President-elect, Jose Manuel 
Barroso will start working on the make-up of his 
team and the sensitive allocation of portfolios 
among Commission members.  END SUMMARY. 
 
ALL THE PRESIDENT'S MEN AND WOMEN 
--------------------------------- 
 
2.   The mandate of EU Commission President Prodi 
and his colleagues in the college of Commissioners 
will expire at the end of October.  With the 
European Parliament's July 22 confirmation of Jose 
Manuel Barroso of Portugal as President-elect, 
Barroso must now formally begin consultations with 
EU governments to draw up the list of the other (24) 
members of his Commission (one per member State). 
 
3.  Far more complicated than compiling the list of 
24 fellow Commissioners will be divvying up the 
substantive portfolios of Commission work among 
them.  In the first instance, he needs to figure out 
how to create five more jobs with high enough 
profiles to satisfy his colleagues, when even among 
the current 20 Commissioners a few have seemed to 
lack for enough to do.  In comments to the press, he 
has expressed doubts about the wisdom of one 
proposal to create more slots  - Commission VP 
positions without direct line responsibility who 
would instead coordinate "teams" of other 
Commissioners for broad policy areas such as 
external affairs, economic policy, or justice and 
home affairs. 
 
4. Even more politically sensitive will be deciding 
who gets which portfolio.  Barroso's challenge will 
be to protect his prerogatives and resist pressure 
from governments for their nationals to receive 
specific portfolios.  France, Germany and the UK 
have already publicly voiced their desires for key 
economic portfolios.  In his June 30 appearance 
before the EU press corps and during hearings at the 
EP, Barroso invoked Treaty rules to make it clear 
that he alone will be in charge of the allocation of 
portfolios among the future Commissioners.  Barroso 
was "prepared to listen" if they could help him to 
assess the skills of potential nominees, but France 
and Germany were only making "suggestions," he said. 
Barroso has also stressed an interest in an 
increased proportion of women on the new Commission 
(up from 8 of the current 30). 
 
5.  Following is our assessment of likely nominees 
for the Barroso Commission: 
 
JUST ARRIVED IN BRUSSELS 
------------------------ 
 
6.  A safe bet is that most, if not necessarily all, 
Commissioners who joined the Prodi team from the ten 
new Member States on May 1, 2004 will be re- 
nominated for a full five-year term.  Some 
uncertainties persist in respect of the Czech 
republic (following the change at the top of the 
government) and Hungary (where FM Kovacs may seek 
the job for himself).  These ten Commissioners 
already have full voting rights in the Prodi 
Commission but have no portfolio of their own, 
instead "twinning" with current Commissioners. 
Though Barroso may in some cases be prepared to play 
for continuity and give them full responsibility for 
the area they are covering only in part now, he will 
be free to reshuffle portfolios completely.  These 
Commissioners are: 
 
--Czech Republic: Pavel Telicka ("twinned" at Health 
  and Consumer Protection); 
 
--Cyprus:  Marcos Kyprianou (Budget); 
 
--Estonia: Siim Kallas (Economy and Finance); 
 
--Hungary: Peter Balasz (Regional Policy); 
 
--Latvia: Sandra Kalniete (Agriculture and 
  Fisheries, but with little chance to stay there); 
 
--Lithuania: Dalia Grybauskaite (unhappily "twinned" 
  at Education and Culture; interested in an 
  economic portfolio); 
 
--Malta: Joe Borg (Development Cooperation and 
  Humanitarian Assistance, a portfolio that is 
  likely to be split); 
 
--Poland: Danuta Huebner (Trade; said to be 
  interested in an econ portfolio); 
--Slovenia: Janez Potocnik (Enlargement and New 
  Neighborhood Policy, and rumored to be very 
  interested in staying there, where he would be 
  responsible, inter alia, for accession 
  negotiations with neighboring Croatia); 
 
--Slovakia: Jan Figel (Enterprise Policy and the 
  Information Society). 
 
ALREADY ON BOARD AS WELL 
------------------------ 
 
7.  Also likely to be reappointed are the four 
members who joined the Prodi Commission this year in 
replacement of early departures: 
 
--Greece:  Stavros Dimas, now in charge of 
  Employment and Social Affairs, would like to 
  relinquish his portfolio, perhaps for Fisheries 
  (assuming this is separated from Agriculture); 
 
--Spain:  Joaquin Almunia, now holding the Economic 
  and Monetary Affairs portfolio, expects to be 
  reappointed but would be forced to leave Brussels 
  when/if the Constitutional Treaty enters into 
  force (perhaps at the beginning of 2007) and High 
  Rep Solana officially becomes EU Foreign Minister, 
  thus landing in the Commission as a Vice- 
  President; 
 
--France:  Jacques Barrot, who handles EU Regional 
  policy, will seek an economic portfolio.  Paris is 
  eager to see him in control of Competition policy 
  to prevent further Commission blockades of French 
  state subsidies and mergers involving its major 
  companies.  However, Barrot's knowledge of EU 
  technicalities and his linguistic talents may not 
  meet the requirements of the job.  He may have to 
  settle for another slot (perhaps Single Market, 
  Employment/Social Affairs, or JHA); 
 
--Finland:  Olli Rehn, just chosen to succeed 
  departing Enterprise and Information Society 
  Commissioner Erkki Liikanen, will most likely seek 
  an economic portfolio. 
 
8.  Other Member States will/may re-nominate the 
current holder of their Commission slot: 
 
--Germany: Chancellor Schroeder has already 
  announced (without prior consultation with the 
  President-designate) that the mandate of 
  Commissioner Guenther Verheugen would be renewed. 
  Schroeder made it clear he would like to see 
  Verheugen become a "super-Commissioner" in charge 
  of economic matters.  Though widely credited for 
  his management of the complex enlargement 
  portfolio, Verheugen arguably has no specific 
  expertise in the economic area; 
 
--Italy: Mario Monti, currently in charge of EU 
  Competition policy, is willing to stay and appears 
  to have convinced PM Berlusconi to keep him in 
  Brussels, possibly with an eye on the coveted 
  Economic and Monetary Affairs portfolio.  A 
  possible replacement is Rocco Buttiglione, Italian 
  Minister for Community policies; 
 
--Sweden:  Margot Wallstroem (now holding the 
  Environment portfolio) told the press in Brussels 
  on July 7 that she would probably stay in the 
  Commission for another term; 
 
--Luxembourg:  Viviane Reding (Education and 
  Culture) can also hope for reappointment, 
  following her party's strong showing in the June 
  national and EP elections. 
 
SOME NEW FACES AT LEAST 
----------------------- 
 
9.  As for the other Member States, the situation 
appears to be as follows: 
 
--Austria: Franz Fischler (holder of the Agriculture 
  and Fisheries portfolio) is expected to leave 
  Brussels.  FM Ferrero-Waldner is a potential 
  candidate, but the list of would-be Commissioners 
  also includes Interior Minister Strasser, Health 
  Minister Maria Rauch-Kallat, the head of Austria's 
  Economic Chamber Christoph Leitl, as well as 
  Balkans Stability Pact Coordinator Erhard Busek; 
 
--Belgium: Commissioner Philippe Busquin (Research) 
  will be replaced by former FM Louis Michel, who 
  has already expressed a keen interest in the 
  Development portfolio; 
 
--Denmark: the Liberal-led government will not 
  confirm Poul Nielson (Development and Humanitarian 
  Assistance).  Former FM and Liberal party front- 
  runner Ellemann-Jensen has declined the job. 
  Coalition-member Conservative Party may put 
  forward Hans Skov Christensen, Director of the 
  Confederation of Danish Industries.  Another 
  possible candidate is Integration Minister 
  (Liberal) Bertel Haarder, but PM Rasmussen may not 
  want to do without him on the domestic front; 
 
--Ireland: the former Presidency is said to be in 
  competition with the current (Dutch) one for the 
  Agriculture portfolio.  Agriculture Minister Joe 
  Walsh and Finance Minister McCreevy (who denied 
  any interest) have been mentioned as potential 
  candidates but the game seems to remain open; 
 
--The Netherlands:  The Dutch are looking for the 
  Agriculture/Fisheries portfolio, for which they 
  would push the candidacy of their current Ag 
  Minister Cees Veerman (CDA), who already won 
  public backing from French president Chirac. 
  Other options would be former Minister Neelie 
  Kroes (VVD), who could have an eye on the 
  Transport portfolio, and former Finance Minister 
  Onno Ruding (CDA). 
 
--UK:  The front-runner for the job of Britain's 
  Commissioner would be PM Blair-confidant and 
  former new Labor Minister Peter Mandelson, who 
  would aim for an influential reform-oriented 
  portfolio, such as the Internal Market one. 
  Another option would be a female member of the 
  Blair cabinet such as Secretary for Industry and 
  Trade Patricia Hewitt, likely to be a contender 
  for the Single Market or Trade portfolio; 
 
COMMENT 
------ 
 
10.  Barroso will preside over a Commission that may 
actually include less than a third of newcomers. 
This should ease the transition somewhat, although 
many, if not most, in the old guard will only have 
been here for a few months.  Having relinquished the 
right to nominate a second Commissioner, the large 
Member States will put tremendous pressure on the 
President-designate to give their nominee a powerful 
portfolio.  The allocation of responsibilities has 
never been an easy task, but Barroso may find it 
even harder than his predecessors.  The make-up of 
an enlarged Commission where everybody feels at ease 
with a decent, substantial portfolio will not only 
be the first test of his talents as a manager and 
captain of the Commission ship but will also 
determine the quality of his relations with his 
former PM colleagues for many years to come. 
 
MCKINLEY