US embassy cable - 01PRETORIA4997

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 004997 
 
C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y - PARA MARKINGS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2011 
TAGS: ECON, EFIN, PREL, SF 
SUBJECT: NEXT STEPS IN THE "NEW AFRICAN INITIATIVE": THE 
SOUTH AFRICAN VIEW 
 
CLASSIFIED BY ECONOMIC MINISTER/COUNSELOR ROBERT F. GODEC FOR 
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) THE AFRICAN UNION SUMMIT LAST JULY MERGED THE MAP AND 
OMEGA DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES TO CREATE THE "NEW AFRICAN 
INITIATIVE."  SAG DEPARTMENT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS MAP/NAI 
ISSUES COORDINATOR DAVID MALCOMSON BRIEFED EMBOFFS ON NEXT 
STEPS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PROCESS.  INITIALLY A 15 
NATION HEADS OF STATE GROUP WILL DEFINE THE TERMS OF 
ADMISSION FOR OTHER COUNTRIES, REQUISITE CODES OF POLITICAL 
AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR AND PRIORITY SECTORS AND PROJECTS. 
 
2. (C) CHOOSING THE 15 "FOUNDER" STATES WILL BE AN EARLY 
DETERMINANT OF THE NASCENT INITIATIVE'S INTERNATIONAL 
CREDIBILITY.  THE NORTH AFRICAN GROUP WILL CHOOSE EITHER 
TUNISIA OR LIBYA.  LIBYA'S AU CLOUT IS CONSIDERABLE, BUT 
MALCOMSON SAID "THE CHOICE MUST BE TUNISIA." 
 
3. (C) THE "PRECONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT" SECTION OF THE 
"PROGRAMME OF ACTION," WHICH MALCOMSON SAID IS KEY TO THE 
CREDIBILITY OF THE DOCUMENT, COMMITS THE LEADERSHIP TO 
CONSIDER DETAILED AND COSTED MEASURES FOCUSED ON SUCH KEY 
AREAS AS CONFLICT PREVENTION AND RESOLUTION, PEACEMAKING AND 
ARMS PROLIFERATION.  SIMILARLY, THE "ECONOMIC AND CORPORATE 
GOVERNANCE INITIATIVE" REQUIRES PARTICIPATING STATES TO PUSH 
FOR A SET OF TIMEBOUND AND SPECIFIC PROGRAMS ENHANCING THE 
QUALITY OF ECONOMIC AND PUBLIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT. 
MALCOMSON NOTED THAT CONSIDERATIONS OF NATIONAL SOVEREIGNTY 
WILL NO LONGER BE ALLOWED TO FRUSTRATE PROGRESS IN ACHIEVING 
THESE GOALS. 
 
4. (C) MEMBERS OF THE MAP/NAI STEERING COMMITTEE WILL TRAVEL TO 
WASHINGTON, NEW YORK AND PHILADELPHIA IN COMING WEEKS TO 
PROMOTE AND BUILD SUPPORT FOR THIS INITIATIVE.  A FINANCING 
SUMMIT IS SLATED FOR JANUARY 2002, A DATE WHICH MAY BE PUSHED 
BACK TO ALLOW THE MAP/NAI SECRETARIAT TO COMPLETE WORK ON 
DEFINING GOVERNANCE PRACTICES AND NEEDS.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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THE "NEW AFRICAN INITIATIVE" IS BORN 
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5. (C) THE JULY AFRICAN UNION SUMMIT IN LUSAKA ADOPTED A "NEW 
AFRICAN INITIATIVE" MERGING THE RIVAL MAP AND OMEGA 
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES.  SOUTH AFRICAN DEPARTMENT OF FOREIGN 
AFFAIRS COORDINATOR FOR MAP/NAI ISSUES DAVID MALCOMSON 
BRIEFED ECONOFF FREUND AND POLOFF MCNAMARA AUGUST 22 ON NEXT 
STEPS ON THIS CENTRAL LEGACY INITIATIVE OF THE MBEKI 
PRESIDENCY.  IN THE NAI (WHICH SOUTH AFRICA HOPES TO RENAME 
MAP, IF ONLY BECAUSE "NAI" IS AN AFRIKAANS OBSCENITY) AN 
INITIAL 15 NATION HEADS OF STATE GROUP WILL DEFINE THE TERMS 
OF TERMS OF ADMISSION OF OTHER AFRICAN STATES, THEIR CODE OF 
POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR AND THE PRIORITY SECTORS AND 
PROJECTS FOR FUNDING FROM BOTH INTERNAL AND INTERNATIONAL 
SOURCES. 
 
6. (C) THE FIFTEEN ORIGINAL STATES WILL BE DRAWN THREE EACH 
FROM THE FIVE AFRICAN SUB-REGIONS, AND WILL INCLUDE THE 
ORIGINAL MAP/OMEGA DRAFTERS SOUTH AFRICA, NIGERIA, ALGERIA, 
SENEGAL, AND EGYPT. SADC HAS ALREADY AGREED THAT THE OTHER 
TWO SOUTHERN AFRICAN STATES WILL BE MOZAMBIQUE AND BOTSWANA. 
THE OTHER REGIONS WILL PROBABLY SELECT THEIR REPRESENTATIVES 
THROUGH CONSULTATIONS IN ADDIS ABABA, MALCOMSON EXPLAINED. 
 
7. (C) A KEY EARLY TEST FOR THE PROCESS WILL BE NORTH AFRICA'S 
CHOICE.  WITH EGYPT AND ALGERIA ALREADY IN, AND MOROCCO NOT 
AN AU MEMBER, THE CHOICE COMES DOWN TO TUNISIA AND LIBYA. 
"THE CHOICE MUST BE TUNISIA", MALCOMSON CONFIDED 
CONFIDENTIALLY.  HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT LIBYA HAS CONSIDERABLE 
CLOUT WITHIN THE AU, (AND IS GENERALLY CREDITED WITH 
TRANSFORMING THE OAU INTO THE AU), BUT LIBYAN MEMBERSHIP 
WOULD SEVERELY DAMAGE THE CREDIBILITY OF THE NASCENT 
INITIATIVE, MALCOMSON BELIEVED. 
 
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PEACE AND GOVERNANCE ARE KEY 
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8. (C) MALCOMSON UNDERLINED THE SOUTH AFRICAN VIEW THAT THE 
"PRECONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT" SECTION OF THE MAP "PROGRAMME 
OF ACTION" WAS KEY TO THE CREDIBILITY OF THE ENTIRE DOCUMENT. 
(FULL TEXT AT WWW.MAPSTRATEGY.COM OR WWW.DFA.GOV.ZA)  IN 
SPITE OF OPPOSITION BY SOME AFRICAN COUNTRIES, INCLUDING 
SENEGAL'S WADE, THE SAG INSISTED ON LANGUAGE MEMORIALIZING 
THE "PEACE, SECURITY AND POLITICAL GOVERNANCE INITIATIVES" 
AND THE "ECONOMIC AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE INITIATIVE."  THE 
FIRST COMMITS THE AFRICAN INITIATIVE LEADERSHIP TO CONSIDER, 
WITHIN SIX MONTHS OF ITS ESTABLISHMENT, DETAILED AND COSTED 
MEASURES IN EACH OF FOUR KEY AREAS: 
 
A)    PREVENTION, MANAGEMENT AND RESOLUTION OF CONFLICT; 
 
B)    PEACEMAKING, PEACEKEEPING AND PEACE ENFORCEMENT; 
 
C)    POST-CONFLICT RECONCILIATION, REHABILITATION AND 
RECONSTRUCTION; AND 
 
D)    COMBATING THE ILLICIT PROLIFERATION OF SMALL ARMS, 
LIGHT WEAPONS AND LANDMINES. 
 
9. (C) THE MAP DOCUMENT SPECIFIES THAT THIS EXERCISE WILL 
INCLUDE THE ACTIONS REQUIRED OF PARTNERS AND THE NATURE AND 
SOURCES OF FINANCING FOR SUCH ACTIVITIES. 
 
10.(C) SIMILARLY, THE "ECONOMIC AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE 
INITIATIVE" CALLS UPON THE AFRICAN INITIATIVE LEADERSHIP TO 
"PROMOTE THROUGHOUT THE PARTICIPATING COUNTRIES A SET OF 
CONCRETE AND TIMEBOUND PROGRAMMES AIMED AT ENHANCING THE 
QUALITY OF ECONOMIC AND PUBLIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT AS WELL 
AS CORPORATE GOVERNANCE."  BY WAY OF IMPLEMENTATION, A TASK 
TEAM FROM MINISTRIES OF FINANCE AND CENTRAL BANKS "WILL BE 
COMMISSIONED TO REVIEW ECONOMIC AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE 
PRACTICES IN THE VARIOUS COUNTRIES AND REGIONS, AND MAKE 
RECOMMENDATIONS ON APPROPRIATE STANDARDS AND CODES OF GOOD 
PRACTICE FOR CONSIDERATION BY THE HEADS OF STATE 
IMPLEMENTATION COMMITTEE WITHIN SIX MONTHS." 
 
11. (C) MALCOMSON NOTED THAT THESE COMMITMENTS PLACE SECURELY 
UPON AFRICAN COUNTRIES THE RESPONSIBILITY FOR ESTABLISHING 
AND PRESERVING AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT. 
POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE IN PARTICIPATING 
COUNTRIES WILL BE SUBJECT TO SCRUTINY BY OTHER MAP STATES AND 
ALL WILL HAVE A JOINT RESPONSIBILITY TO HELP BRING 
NONCONFORMING GOVERNMENTS INTO COMPLIANCE WITH MUTUALLY 
AGREED MINIMUM STANDARDS AND CODES OF GOOD PRACTICE. 
MALCOMSON EMPHASIZED THAT, UNLIKE IN THE PAST, CONSIDERATIONS 
OF NATIONAL SOVEREIGNTY WILL NOT BE ALLOWED TO FRUSTRATE THE 
PROCESS.  THERE WILL BE STRONG PRESSURE TO CONFORM TO AGREED 
UPON STANDARDS AND THE AFRICAN INITIATIVE LEADERSHIP WILL NOT 
HESITATE TO ENGAGE MEMBER STATES IN WAYS THAT MAY HAVE BEEN 
CONSIDERED TOO INTRUSIVE IN THE PAST. 
 
12. (C) THE ENFORCEMENT MECHANISM WILL WORK THROUGH A "YELLOW 
CARD/RED CARD" MECHANISM DRAWN FROM THE WORLD OF SOCCER. THIS 
MECHANISM WAS FIRST ADOPTED BY THE OAU IN 1999, AT SOUTH 
AFRICA'S URGING, WITH REGARDS TO NON-CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES 
OF GOVERNMENT.  A NON-CONFORMING COUNTRY IS FIRST WARNED 
(YELLOW CARD) AND GIVEN ONE YEAR TO RECTIFY ITS BEHAVIOR. 
FAILING THAT, IT IS TEMPORARILY EXPELLED FROM THE 
ORGANIZATION (RED CARD). 
 
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IMPLEMENTATION AND SECTORAL PRIORITIES 
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13. (C) MALCOMSON RECALLED THAT DURING THE G8 MEETING IN GENOA 
THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL PRIORITIES HAD BEEN IDENTIFIED: 
 
A)    INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY (ICT); 
B)    MARKET ACCESS; 
C)    DEBT RELIEF; AND 
D)    COMMUNICABLE DISEASES - (HIV/AIDS, MALARIA AND 
TUBERCULOSIS). 
 
14. (C) IT IS NOT CLEAR NOW WHETHER INITIATIVE LEADERS WILL OPT 
TO FOCUS ON THESE PRIORITIES ON A SPECIFIC PROJECT BASIS OR 
TO APPROACH THEM IN TERMS OF A BROADER,  "MACRO" STRATEGY. 
HE INDICATED THAT A DECISION ON THIS WOULD LIKELY EMERGE FROM 
THE UPCOMING MEETING IN ADDIS ABABA SEPTEMBER 13- 14, 2001. 
ESTABLISHMENT OF TASK TEAMS TO BEGIN SECTORAL NEEDS 
ASSESSMENTS AT NATIONAL, REGIONAL AND CONTINENTAL LEVELS ARE 
SLATED TO TAKE PLACE SIX MONTHS AFTER THE ADDIS ABABA 
MEETING.  HE ALSO SAID THAT SPECIAL TASK TEAMS TO FOCUS ON 
THE HIGH PRIORITY PROGRAMS (INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 
INFRASTRUCTURE AND ICT) WOULD BEGIN WORK AFTER THE UN GENERAL 
ASSEMBLY MEETING IN NEW YORK SEPTEMBER 20-24. 
 
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MAP GOES TO WASHINGTON (AND PHILLY AND NEW YORK) 
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15. (C) MALCOMSON SAID "MEMBERS" OF THE MAP STEERING COMMITTEE 
WILL TRAVEL TO WASHINGTON FOLLOWING THE ADDIS ABABA MEETINGS 
TO MEET WITH THE IMF, WORLD BANK, AND "STATE DEPARTMENT 
OFFICIALS" (NFI) FROM SEPTEMBER 16 -18.  ON SEPTEMBER 19 THE 
PRESIDENTS OF NIGERIA, ALGERIA AND SOUTH AFRICA WILL 
PARTICIPATE IN A MEETING OF THE CORPORATE COUNCIL FOR AFRICA 
IN PHILADELPHIA, POSSIBLY JOINED BY PRESIDENT WADE OF 
SENEGAL.   THE TRAVELLING ROAD SHOW WOULD THEN MOVE ON TO NEW 
YORK SEPTEMBER 20 -24 TO PRESENT ITS WORK ON THE MARGINS OF 
EITHER THE UNGA OR THE UN CHILDREN'S SUMMIT. 
 
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DONORS ON THE LINE IN EARLY 2002 
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16. (C) THE SHOW AND TELL EXERCISE WOULD CULMINATE IN A PLANNED 
FINANCING SUMMIT OF WORLD LEADERS IN SENEGAL EARLY IN 2002. 
THIS SUMMIT WAS ORIGINALLY PLANNED FOR NOVEMBER 2001, WHICH 
WOULD HAVE CONFLICTED WITH SENEGALESE ELECTIONS, MALCOMSON 
EXPLAINED.  A NEW TENTATIVE DATE OF JANUARY 2002 WAS SET. 
POLOFF NOTED THAT THE MAP SECRETARIAT'S OWN WORK ON DEFINING 
GOVERNANCE PRACTICES AND NEEDS WAS NOT SCHEDULED TO CONCLUDE 
UNTIL MARCH, SO A JANUARY SUMMIT TO APPEAL TO WORLD LEADERS 
FOR FINANCING SOUNDED PREMATURE.  MALCOMSON TOOK THE POINT 
AND SAID HE WOULD RAISE IT WITH MAP SECRETARIAT HEAD (AND 
PRESIDENTIAL ECONOMIC ADVISER) WISEMAN NKUHLU TO SEE IF THE 
SUMMIT COULD BE PUSHED BACK. 
 
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COMMENT 
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17. (C) THE SAG IS WELL AWARE THAT MAP/NAI WILL FACE AN EARLY 
AND CRITICAL TEST IN CHOOSING THE MEMBERSHIP OF THE 15 NATION 
HEADS OF STATE GROUP.  MALCOMSON WAS QUITE BLUNT IN TELLING 
US THAT THE CHOICE MUST BE TUNISIA, NOT LIBYA.  OTHERWISE THE 
INITIATIVE'S CREDIBILITY (AND PRESIDENT MBEKI'S PRESTIGE) 
COULD SUFFER A BLOW.  SOUTH AFRICA DOES NOT WANT MAP/NAI TO 
END UP ON THE PILE OF FAILED AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT INITIATIVES 
AND WE EXPECT THAT THEY WILL DO ALL THEY CAN TO ENSURE THAT 
LIBYA DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO THE INNER CIRCLE.  THE SOUTH 
AFRICANS ALSO HOPE THAT THE USG WILL NAME A MAP/NAI 
COORDINATOR BEFORE THE MAP STEERING COMMITTEE TRAVELS TO 
WASHINGTON IN MID-SEPTEMBER. 
 
 
BLANEY