US embassy cable - 04KINSHASA1365

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001365 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CG 
SUBJECT: RUMORS MOUNT OF PENDING GOVERNMENT ATTACK AGAINST 
NKUNDA 
 
 
Classified By: PolCouns MSanderson, reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C)  Summary:  Eastern regional military commanders were 
ordered to return unexpectedly early to their posts July 21, 
cutting short follow-on meetings scheduled for Kinshasa. 
Upon reaching Bukavu, General Mabe immediately called his 
field commanders in and, according to Monuc sources, briefed 
them on the government's battle plan before dispatching them 
to their duty stations.  Similar briefings reportedly took 
place in Kindu and Kisangani, where government troops also 
are concentrated.  Monuc confirms that large numbers of 
civilians are fleeing Minova as rumors circulate that Nkunda 
is rallying his forces for a preemptive attack.  Monuc Bukavu 
believes that government troops could attack Nkunda's 
positions in Minova and Kalehe this weekend.  End Summary. 
 
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The Word Is Given? 
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2. (C)  Developments over the last two days suggest that the 
long-postponed attack by government forces against rebel 
general Nkunda's positions could be coming soon, possibly 
even this weekend.  Two days of briefings for all the eastern 
regional military commanders (except N. Kivu's General Obed, 
who declined to attend) in Kinshasa concluded July 20 with a 
meeting with President Kabila.  The commanders were then 
scheduled to have two days of follow-on meetings in Kinshasa, 
but they were precipitously dispatched to their posts July 
21.  Monuc sources say that S. Kivu regional commander Mbuza 
Mabe immediately called his field commanders to Bukavu for a 
three-hour briefing on the battle plan before dispatching 
them to the field; we believe that commanders in Kindu and 
Kisangani did likewise.  Some troops (no numbers available at 
this time) began moving out of Bukavu toward the north early 
July 22. 
 
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Rumors Abound As Civilians Flee 
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3. (C)  For several days there have been persistent rumors 
that Nkunda is mobilizing his forces (now reportedly 
numbering somewhere between 5,000-10,000) for a preemptive 
strike south, toward Bukavu. As of midday July 22, Monuc has 
seen no evidence of such movement, and Monuc sources in 
contact with forward FADRC elements stationed near Kalehe and 
Minova report that the FADRC is relaxed and reports no 
activity.  Partly in response to fears of an imminent attack 
and partly to escape the apparently increasing depredations 
of Nkunda's troops, hundreds of civilians are confirmed by 
Monuc to be fleeing Minova, many across the lake in small 
fishing boats to Idjwe Island where they have family.  At the 
same time, Monuc is in contact with several officers 
nominally under either Nkunda's or Obed's command, who say 
they will not obey orders from either general, but rather 
intend to take no action unless a genocide begins against 
Rwandaphones.  Press reports continue that government troops 
are moving down from their stations in Beni (northern N. 
Kivu) and Kindu (in Maniema province), but we have no 
confirmation of such movement. 
 
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Comment 
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4. (C)  Trying to make sense out of the chaotic East is, as 
usual, dicing with circumstance. However, the unexpectedly 
rapid return of the commanders to the east and their briefing 
of the field elements does suggest that a decision to take 
the fight to the enemy may finally have been made.  We do not 
believe, however, that Nkunda is preparing to launch any 
southern movement.  Doing so would mean confronting directly 
the bulk of the government forces which lie between Nkunda's 
sites and Bukavu, and would seem to yield very little return 
for the cost, particularly since we find it hard to believe 
that he could have 10,000 troops at his disposal. Such a 
number would require virtually all the forces in the 8th 
military region (Obed's troops) and a significant number of 
Serufuli's militia as well.  Monuc photographs of Kalehe show 
that Nkunda's people have gone to considerable trouble to 
fortify four different sites in that area, including 
reinforcing (possibly) with some sort of artillery.  He seems 
much more likely, if pressed, to move laterally from Minova 
to Kalehe and try to hold the ground there -- or, more 
threateningly, to fall back toward Goma, a move which would, 
in every sense of the word, take the fight to N. Kivu 
Governor Serufuli who so far has maintained at least a 
pretense (albeit dubious) of neutrality.  We believe that if 
and when an attack begins, if the government forces have any 
sort of success at all in Minova (which is far from certain), 
Nkunda is most likely to break for Goma in an attempt to 
force Obed or Serufuli to assist him, or at least facilitate 
his escape in the general melee. 
SCOTT