US embassy cable - 01HARARE2508

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002508 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/EPS 
 
USAID FOR AA/AFR, BHR/FFP, AFR/SA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID, PREL, PREL, ZI 
SUBJECT:  HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE: PRELIMINARY 
COMMENTS/ISSUES CONCERNING WORLD VISION PROPOSAL 
 
 
1.   SUMMARY.  POST UNDERSTANDS URGENCY OF HUMANITARIAN 
  ASSISTANCE (HA); HOWEVER, WE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THE WV 
  PROPOSAL AS CURRENTLY PRESENTED TO BE A SUFFICIENT USG 
  RESPONSE TO THE CRISIS.  WE HAVE A NUMBER OF CONCERNS 
  ELABORATED BELOW AND REQUEST ADVICE ON THE LIKELY LEVEL OF 
  RESOURCE AVAILABILITY FROM THE USG. 
 
2.   THIS MESSAGE PROVIDES PRELIMINARY COMMENTS ON SECOND 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
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  DRAFT OF WORLD VISION (WV) PROPOSAL.  WE UNDERSTAND THAT 
  THERE IS A THIRD VERSION THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN AND THAT WV 
  EXPECTS TO SHORTLY SUBMIT A FOURTH VERSION.  POST HAS NOT 
  CONDUCTED A FULL REVIEW OF THE PROPOSAL AND THUS THIS 
  MESSAGE SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS INFORMAL AND PRELIMINARY. 
 
3.  POST HAS SEVERAL COMMENTS AND CONCERNS, AND THESE 
INCLUDE: 
 
--WE CONCUR IN THE PROPOSED GEOGRAPHIC FOCUS IN MIDLANDS AND 
MATEBELELAND NORTH THAT TAKES INTO ACCOUNT POLITICAL AND 
ETHNIC BALANCE. 
 
--ALL DONORS HERE CONSIDER THE HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN 
ZIMBABWE A COMPLEX MAN-MADE DISASTER CAUSED PARTIALLY BY 
VIOLENCE AND DISRUPTIONS IN THE COMMERCIAL FARMING SECTOR 
RESULTING IN THE DISPLACEMENT OF FARM WORKERS AND MOVEMENT 
OF COMMUNAL FARMERS TO RESETTLEMENT AREAS; INAPPROPRIATE GOZ 
BUDGET PRIORITIES; AND POOR MACRO-ECONOMIC POLICIES SUCH AS 
RECENT REGRESSION ON LIBERALIZING GRAIN MARKETS.  THE IMPACT 
OF CYCLONE ELINE, AND INADEQUATE GOZ RESPONSES TO THIS 
PHENOMENON, AND THE PERENNIAL DROUGHT IN THE TARGET REGIONS 
HAVE FURTHER AGGRAVATED THE SITUATION.  THE WV PROPOSAL 
FACTORS IN THE IMPACT OF THE DROUGHT BUT ONLY ACKNOWLEDGES 
(P. 4) THAT OPPORTUNITIES FOR INCOME GENERATION AS OPPOSED 
TO SUPPLEMENTAL FOOD DISTRIBUTION ARE "DWINDLING" DUE TO THE 
GENERAL ECONOMIC DECLINE. 
 
--A COMPLEX EMERGENCY REQUIRES RESPONSES IN ADDITION TO 
FOOD.  IN THIS RESPECT, THE PROPOSAL IS INADEQUATE.  WHILE 
THERE ARE STATEMENTS REGARDING WV "PLANS" TO MOVE THE 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
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ACTIVITY FROM GENERAL DISTRIBUTION OF FOOD TO "FOOD ASSISTED 
ACTIVITIES" IN YEARS TWO AND THREE (IF INDEED THE PROGRAM 
EXTENDS THAT LONG), THERE ARE NO DETAILS ABOUT WHAT WV PLANS 
TO DO IN THE WAY OF ALTERNATIVE DELIVERY MECHANISMS.  WE ARE 
CONCERNED THAT ALTERNATIVES WILL NOT BE DEVELOPED BEFORE THE 
DIRECT FEEDING PROGRAM STARTS AND A CYCLE OF FOOD 
DISTRIBUTION WILL RESULT, ESPECIALLY IF GOZ LAND POLICY 
PROVOKES EVEN MORE SERIOUS FOOD SHORTAGES IN FOLLOWING 
YEARS.  BECAUSE THE US HAS TAKEN THE LEAD IN CALLING FOR A 
DIFFERENT RESPONSE TO FOOD CRISES (OTHER THAN FREE FEEDING), 
WE COULD OPEN OURSELVES TO CRITICISM.  IN ADDITION, IT WOULD 
BE SHORTSIGHTED TO APPROVE AN ACTIVITY THAT ONLY ADDRESSES 
FOOD FOR THE MOST NEEDY WITHOUT ADDRESSING THE NEED FOR 
INCOME GENERATION, WHICH CANNOT BE DONE UNTIL ALTERNATIVE 
ACTIVITIES ARE IDENTIFIED.  AT A MINIMUM, WE WOULD LIKE TO 
SEE SOME ALTERNATIVE MECHANISMS, AND A TIME LINE TO INDICATE 
WHEN EXPERIMENTATION WITH THESE WILL BE INITIATED. 
 
--THE RELIANCE ON ONLY DIRECT DISTRIBUTION TO THE MOST NEEDY 
ALSO VIOLATES THE PRINCIPLES THAT USAID HARARE DEVELOPED AND 
PRESENTED TO STATE AND USAID WASHINGTON IN EARLY JULY. 
GIVEN THE POLITICAL SITUATION, DIRECT DISTRIBUTION IS THE 
APPROACH MOST VULNERABLE TO POLITICAL INTERFERENCE.  WHILE 
WE RECOGNIZE THAT IT MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE TO PREVENT 
POLITICIZATION OF THE RESOURCE, GIVEN A LONG HISTORY OF 
PATRONAGE AND THE USE OF STATE RESOURCES TO BROADEN 
POLITICAL SUPPORT, WE BELIEVE THAT USING FOOD FOR WORK WILL 
GIVE BENEFICIARIES A SENSE THAT THEY HAVE EARNED THE 
RESOURCE. 
 
--DESIGN PRINCIPLES ALSO CALLED FOR MONITORING BY REPUTABLE 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
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ORGANIZATIONS TO DETERMINE NEUTRALITY OF DISTRIBUTION AND 
WHETHER THERE IS POLITICAL INTERFERENCE.  THE PROPOSAL DOES 
NOT ADDRESS THIS IMPORTANT ISSUE. 
 
--THE PROPOSAL ALSO DOES NOT ADDRESS THE PRINCIPLE OF 
RELYING ON COMMERCIAL MECHANISMS AND WORKING WITH THE 
PRIVATE SECTOR TO THE GREATEST EXTENT POSSIBLE.  WHILE THE 
STATEMENTS IN THE PROPOSAL INDICATE A WILLINGNESS TO EXAMINE 
DISTRIBUTION ALTERNATIVES, POST FEARS THAT ONCE A DIRECT 
DISTRIBUTION PROGRAM COMMENCES, IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT, 
TO MOVE TO OTHER DISTRIBUTION MECHANISMS.  EXPERIENCE WITH 
FEEDING PROGRAMS ELSEWHERE SUPPORTS THIS REASONING. 
 
-- THERE IS NO MENTION IN THE PROPOSAL OF THE ROLE OF THE 
COMMUNITIES IN IDENTIFYING BENEFICIARIES AND USE OF THE 
RESOURCES. THE PROPOSAL DOES NOT DESCRIBE HOW WV WILL 
INTERACT WITH GOVERNMENT OR DESCRIBE THE ROLE OF THE GOZ IN 
SELECTING BENEFICIARIES. 
 
--THE PROPOSAL DOES NOT ELABORATE ON PAST WV EXPERIENCE WITH 
DIRECT DISTRIBUTION IN ZIMBABWE OR ELSEWHERE.  IT DOES NOT 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ0699 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02508  02 OF 02  241031Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00 
      DS-00    UTED-00  VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   VCE-00 
      DCP-01   NSAE-00  IRM-00   TEST-00  DSCC-00  DRL-02   NFAT-00 
      SAS-00     /004W 
                  ------------------15F984  241031Z /38 
P 241021Z AUG 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9546 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002508 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/EPS 
 
USAID FOR AA/AFR, BHR/FFP, AFR/SA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS:  EAID, PREL, ZI 
SUBJECT:  HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE: PRELIMINARY 
COMMENTS/ISSUES CONCERNING WORLD VISION PROPOSAL 
 
DESCRIBE HOW OR BY WHOM FOOD WILL BE DISTRIBUTED. 
 
--THE PROPOSAL IS MUTE ON THE ISSUE OF THE SECURITY ISSUES 
AND HOW IT WILL ADDRESS THEM.  A KEY ASSUMPTION THAT 
"SECURITY REMAINS GOOD IN THE PROPOSED PROGRAM AREA" IS 
QUESTIONABLE.  WE DO NOT THINK THAT THE SITUATION ON THE 
GROUND IS THAT CLEAR. 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02508  02 OF 02  241031Z 
--WHILE THE PROPOSAL IDENTIFIES OTHER NGOS, INCLUDING 
INDIGENOUS ONES, IN THE PROGRAM AREA, IT DOES NOT DESCRIBE 
THEIR INVOLVEMENT OR COLLABORATION.  USAID HAS CONSULTED 
WITH A WIDE RANGE OF NGOS IN THE PROPOSED PROGRAM AREA AND 
FOUND A HIGH DEGREE OF HISTORICAL COLLABORATION AND A 
WILLINGNESS TO WORK TOGETHER AND SHARE RESOURCES.  THE WV 
PROPOSAL MAKES NO MENTION OF HOW IT WILL WORK WITH OTHERS. 
MEANWHILE POST HAS INDICATED TO OTHER NGOS THAT WHILE WE 
WOULD WORK THROUGH A US ORGANIZATION, WE WOULD EXPECT 
COLLABORATION INCLUDING SHARED RESOURCES THAT WOULD ALLOW 
OTHER NGOS TO PROVIDE ASSISTANCE IN COMMUNITIES WHERE WV IS 
NOT PRESENT. 
 
--THE PROGRAM MONITORING INDICATORS INCLUDE ONLY ONE "PEOPLE 
LEVEL" INDICATOR - NUMBER OF TARGETED BENEFICIARIES.  ALL 
OTHER INDICATORS FOCUS ON TRAINING OF WV STAFF, 
COMPUTERIZATION OF THE DISTRIBUTION TRACKING SYSTEM, ETC. 
COMMODITY REPORTS WOULD BE SUBMITTED MONTHLY/QUARTERLY, 
ACCORDING TO THE PROPOSAL, BUT OTHER INDICATORS - STAFF 
TRAINING, SUCCESS OF THE TRACKING SYSTEM -- WOULD ONLY BE AT 
THE PROJECT'S END. 
 
--ECONOMIC INDICATORS CITED IN SECTION B (PAGE 4) ARE 
UNDERSTATED. 
 
--BELLMON ANALYSIS APPEARS INADEQUATE.  WHILE WE ACKNOWLEDGE 
THAT THE WV PROPOSAL WOULD HAVE MINIMAL MARKET IMPACT, THERE 
IS NO ANALYSIS OF TOTAL NEEDS, MARKET ABILITY TO RESPOND TO 
THE IMPACT OF THE PROPOSED FOOD AID OR MIX OF COMMODITIES. 
 
3.   LIKE WASHINGTON, POST IS SEIZED WITH THE URGENCY OF 
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  THIS MATTER.  NOTWITHSTANDING, GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT 
  THIS MAY BE THE PRIMARY USG RESPONSE TO THE HUMANITARIAN 
  CRISIS, IT IS ESSENTIAL THAT WE WORK WITH WV TO BE SURE THE 
  PROPOSAL IS VIABLE AND APPROPRIATE.  ALTERNATIVELY, WE COULD 
  ENGAGE ANOTHER USPVO AUTHORIZED AS A COOPERATING SPONSOR FOR 
  PL 480, OR WE SHOULD CONSIDER NOW WHAT WOULD BE NEEDED TO 
  MONETIZE A PORTION OF THE FOOD AND ALLOW THE PRIVATE SECTOR 
  TO IMPORT AND DISTRIBUTE, TO AVOID MARKET DISTORTIONS IN ANY 
  FUTURE PROGRAM.  WE ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THIS IS NOT FEASIBLE 
  BEFORE THE END OF THIS FISCAL YEAR.  WE NOTE BASED ON 
  INFORMATION FROM USAID/BHR EXPERTS THAT WE CAN CALL FORWARD 
  THE FOOD SHIPMENT WITHOUT AWARDING THE GRANT TO WV AT THIS 
  TIME.  IF ADDITIONAL RESOURCES ARE LIKELY TO BE MADE 
  AVAILABLE, WE COULD CONSIDER THE WV PROPOSAL AS ONE ELEMENT 
  OF OUR RESPONSE.  HOWEVER, IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT 
  RESOURCES ARE EXTREMELY LIMITED AND THAT THE PACKAGE 
  PROPOSED BY WV IS LIKELY TO BE THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF RESOURCES 
  USG CAN MAKE AVAILABLE. 
 
4.   ACTION REQUEST:  USAID/BHR IS REQUESTED TO ADVISE 
  WHETHER THE QUANTITIES (12,000 MT) AND MIX OF COMMODITIES IS 
  LIKELY TO BE AVAILABLE AND WHETHER THE REQUEST FOR 202E 
  FUNDING IS REASONABLE GIVEN RESOURCE AVAILABILITY.  ARE 
  INCREMENTAL RESOURCES BEYOND THOSE PROPOSED BY WV AVAILABLE 
  FOR OTHER HA PROGRAMS?  INCREASINGLY RELIABLE ESTIMATES ARE 
  BEGINNING TO COALESCE AROUND THE 300,000 - 400,000 MT LEVEL 
  FOR THE ANTICIPATED SHORTFALL, WHICH MIGHT INCLUDE A SET 
  ASIDE PORTION FOR THE STRATEGIC GRAIN RESERVE FOR 2002. 
 
5.   POST APPRECIATES SUPPORT FROM DEPARTMENT AND USAID/BHR 
  AND AFR/SA ON THIS HIGH PRIORITY MATTER. 
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