US embassy cable - 04ABUJA1278

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001278 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT PASS TO AF/W 
LONDON AND PARIS PASS TO AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2014 
TAGS: PHUM, PGOV, PREL, ASEC, NI, DOMESTICPOLITICS 
SUBJECT: SUSPENDED PLATEAU GOVERNOR DARIYE:  THE PROBLEM, 
OR MERELY A SCAPEGOAT? 
 
REF: A. ABUJA 1277 
     B. ABUJA 572 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN CAMPBELL FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) Summary.  Opinions differ on whether the behavior of 
suspended Plateau State Governor Joshua Dariye was the cause 
of the conflict in the state that led to the State of 
Emergency (SOE), or whether he merely made a bad situation 
worse.  All observers agree that he certainly didn't help, 
and that the state has other problems among its peoples. 
Dariye himself was rambling and incoherent in a meeting with 
Poloff, alternately accepting his fate and railing against 
the President.  Dariye, never popular in Plateau, still makes 
noises about his future political career in spite of his 
current predicament.  This is the second of four Plateau 
State cables.  End Summary. 
 
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Dariye's Bumbling:  The Cause . . . 
------------------------------------ 
 
2.  (SBU) During a recent trip to Plateau state (ref A), 
Emboffs encounted a variety of opinions.  Most people, 
including those who supported Dariye to win elections, 
believed he did not handle the crisis effectively.  Aside 
from his apparent weaknesses in taking decisive action, such 
as punishing and arresting those identified as the main 
architects of the crisis, his inflammatory remarks fueled the 
crisis.  Before the SOE, Governor Dariye had granted many 
interviews where he was quoted as referring to the 
Hausa/Fulani as "settlers" and maintained that no matter how 
long they lived in the state, their status as settlers would 
not change. 
 
3.  (U) He had also taken some actions that portrayed him as 
a partisan leader.  During the last local council elections, 
Dariye allowed elections to be held in 16 out of 17 local 
government areas (LGAs), deliberately excluding the Jos North 
LGA, where a Hausa/Fulani candidate would likely have emerged 
as chairman.  Hausa/Fulani Muslim candidates had won all past 
elections in the area.  Instead, Dariye appointed a Christian 
non-Hausa/Fulani to head the Jos North council on a 
"temporary basis," citing "security reports" as the reason. 
 
4.  (C) Ambassador Yahaya Kwande, a PDP kingmaker who had 
supported Dariye, told Poloff Dariye had made a "big mistake" 
by canceling the election in Jos North LGA, explaining that 
"sacrificing" Jos North would not have affected the fortune 
of Dariye's party, the PDP, in the State.  The PDP would 
still have maintained its overwhelming majority in the State, 
winning 13 out of 17 LGAs.  Dismissing the alleged 
"unfavorable reports" on conditions in Jos North LGA as mere 
"bad political calculations," Kwande asserted that elections 
were held in Wase, Kanam, Langtang and Shendam, where 
violence was ongoing at the time of the elections.  Kwande 
also blamed Dariye for failing to create separate districts 
for the Hausa/Fulani in Jos and Yelwa-Shendam:  this inaction 
heightened tension and suspicions that eventually led to 
bloody clashes.  NOTE:  The March local government elections 
were no better in Plateau State than in the rest of the 
country where turnout was possibly in the teens and little 
effort was made to put the trappings of an election onto 
predetermined results. (REF B).  END NOTE. 
 
5.  (C) Yelwa Council Chairman Garba also criticized Dariye 
for the escalation of the crisis in Yelwa-Shendam.  He stated 
that if soldiers initially stationed in Yelwa-Shendam had 
been in place when the militias came, the carnage would not 
have taken place.  He accused Governor Dariye of deliberately 
ordering the soldiers and police to vacate the area, even 
though security reports indicated that the militias would 
likely attack. 
 
----------------------- 
Or A Convenient Excuse? 
----------------------- 
 
6.  (C) Suspended Plateau State Assembly Speaker Simon Lalong 
confessed that all parties in the State were guilty of using 
religion and ethnicity to achieve a political advantage.  He 
explained that the endemic poverty in Nigeria has transformed 
the common people into easy tools for manipulations by the 
elite.  "The common people react to situations based on the 
information they receive from the elite.  The elite can 
manipulate, twist and interpret such information to their 
personal advantage," Lalong declared.  He said the elite are 
the ones responsible for maintaining peace, not the common 
people.  Lalong recalled that attempts were made by the 
Plateau State Government to bring peace back to these warring 
communities.  For instance, the Government decided to create 
two districts in Yelwa-Shendam, one belonging to the 
"indigenes," the other to "settlers."  But when the final 
list was released, said Lalong, "the computer had mistakenly 
deleted the district assigned to the settlers."  This 
"computer error" sparked spontaneous protests that escalated 
into communal violence. 
 
7.  (SBU) Speaker Lalong added that problems like cow theft 
have led to hostilities between the cattle-herding Fulani and 
the subsistence-farming natives.  Such a problem would start 
from two people:  the cow owner, usually a Fulani Muslim, and 
the native who stole the cow, most likely a Christian.  The 
resulting conflict, when the owner either tries to recover 
the cows or punishes the accused thief, has often been 
mislabeled as religious conflict. 
 
8.  (C)  In the framework of national politics, Dariye became 
irrelevant to President Obasanjo's plans and was seen as a 
supporter of Vice President Atiku Abubakar.  According to one 
state official, Plateau State had been suffering from a lack 
of resources "for months" before declaration of the SOE.  An 
observer from neighboring Benue State, where conflict 
continues today, pointed out that the SOE brought no 
additional security forces to the state and that the 
President, with direct control of the military and police, 
could have brought an end to the fighting at any time. 
 
------------------------------ 
Dariye Finds His Own Scapegoat 
------------------------------ 
 
9.  (C) Dariye told Poloff that powerful Abuja-based Plateau 
State natives like Deputy Senate President Ibrahim Mantu (an 
Obasanjo acolyte) were responsible for the SOE and were 
currently plotting for the its extension.  He said Mantu, who 
hails from the same senatorial zone as Dariye, wanted to 
terminate Dariye's political career.  Dariye speculated that 
Mantu was particularly jittery that Dariye might express 
interest in contesting Mantu's senatorial seat in 2007. 
"Mantu is afraid that after my tenure expires in 2007, I will 
contest his seat.  Hence, he is using his closeness with the 
President to destroy me politically". 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
Is It All God's Will, or Just an Enemy Plot? 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
10.  (C) Comment:  During the 90-minute meeting with Poloff 
at his home in Bukuru, Dariye rambled incoherently about 
"plots" and "enemies," alternately blaming conspiracies 
against him and claiming that "God's will" is being done. 
Dariye claimed to be supported by 98% of the people of 
Plateau State, and that over a million Plateau State 
residents had visited him at his home.  Although he has 
continued to support President Obasanjo publicly, Dariye 
expressed anger that the President had, in his words, 
"treated him unfairly."  When asked what the future holds for 
him, Dariye spoke of continuing to run his two finance 
companies and hinted that he may even run for president 
someday.  But even in a country where columnists wax 
nostalgic for the Abacha days, it would be a surprise for 
voters to forget that Dariye, unelected in two elections, 
first rose to national prominence by being suspended from the 
governor's office for incompetence.  End Comment. 
CAMPBELL