US embassy cable - 01HARARE2499

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002499 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF AND AF/S 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS-MANIGAULT 
LONDON FOR NEARY 
USEU FOR POLCOUNS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/03 
TAGS: PREL, ZI 
SUBJECT: GLEANINGS FROM THE DIPLOMATIC HUSTINGS -- IT'S 
         THE ECONOMY, STUPID, AS MUCH AS THE POLITICS 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  SUMMARY AND ACTION REQUEST.  INITIAL COURTESY CALLS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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ON COUNTERPARTS IN THE FRENCH AND BELGIAN EMBASSIES HAVE 
REVEALED DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE EU RANKS OVER HOW TO 
PROCEED ON ARTICLE 8 NEGOTIATIONS WITH ZIMBABWE.  THE 
AUSTRALIANS SAY THAT THE GOZ HAS NOT YET INDICATED WHO 
WILL BE ON THE ZIMBABWEAN DELEGATION TO THE CHOGM IN 
BRISBANE.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE VARYING INTERPRETATIONS OF 
THE GRAVITY OF THE POLITICAL CRISIS, EVERYONE AGREES 
THAT THE ECONOMY IS A MAJOR DISASTER IN THE MAKING.  WE 
WOULD APPRECIATE USEU VIEWS ON POSSIBLE DIFFERENCES 
WITHINT THE EU ON ARTICLE 8 CONSULTATIONS ON ZIMBABWE. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------- 
FRANCE: IT COULD BE WORSE 
------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) COUNSELOR OF THE FRENCH EMBASSY JEROME SAUTIER 
WAS BY FAR THE MOST RELAXED ABOUT THE STATE OF PLAY IN 
ZIMBABWE.  HE NOTED THAT THE POLITICAL SITUATION HAD 
GONE DOWNHILL SINCE HIS ARRIVAL TWO YEARS EARLIER BUT 
SPECULATED THAT ZIMBABWE COULD STILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE 
2002 ELECTIONS WITHOUT MAJOR DAMAGE.  HE OBSERVED THAT 
ON THE AFRICAN CONTINUUM, ZIMBABWE RANKS SOMEWHERE IN 
THE MIDDLE IN TERMS OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE.  HE EXPRESSED 
GREATER CONCERN FOR THE RAPID ECONOMIC DETERIORATION, 
WHICH HE FEARED COULD BE IRREVERSIBLE. 
 
-------------------------------- 
BELGIUM: ESCHEWING THE HARD LINE 
-------------------------------- 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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3.  (C) BELGIAN COUNSELOR ALEXIS DE CROMBRUGGHE SAID 
THAT HE (AND HIS ABSENT AMBASSADOR) HAD TRIED TO TAKE A 
PRAGMATIC VIEW IN DEALING WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF THIS 
"VERY TROUBLED COUNTRY."  HE SAID THAT HE WAS CONCERNED 
THAT THE EU "ULTIMATUM" ON ARTICLE 8 CONSULTATIONS WITH 
ZIMBABWE COULD BACKFIRE, WITH THE ZIMBABWEANS HARDENING 
THEIR POSITION, AGGRAVATING AN ALREADY COMPLICATED 
DYNAMIC.  HE CITED SEVERAL TECHNICAL MISSTEPS IN 
PREPARATION OF THE "ULTIMATUM" AND NOTED THAT THERE WERE 
CLEAR DIFFERENCES AMONG THE EU DIPLOMATIC PRESENCE IN 
HARARE ON HOW BEST TO PROCEED.  DE CROMBRUGGHE 
IDENTIFIED GOZ FLEXIBILITY ON EU ELECTION MONITORING AS 
A KEY INDICATOR TO PROGRESS IN EU/ZIMBABWE 
CONSULTATIONS. 
 
4.  (C) DE CROMBRUGGHE SAID THAT HE DOES NOT FULLY SHARE 
THE VIEWS OF SEVERAL EU CHIEFS OF MISSION THAT THE MDC 
WILL SWEEP TO VICTORY IN FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS.  THE 
OUTCOME OF THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, AND THE RECENT 
ZANU-PF WINS IN BY-ELECTIONS, INDICATE THAT ZANU-PF 
STILL ENJOYS SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT, ESPECIALLY IN ITS 
TRADITIONAL STRONGHOLD OF MASHONALAND.  HE PREDICTED 
THAT THE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE COULD BE A CLOSE ONE, PERHAPS 
THE LEAST IDEAL OUTCOME UNDER CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES. 
DCM NOTED THAT THE DECLINING ECONOMY WILL CERTAINLY 
ERODE ZANU SUPPORT AND POINTED OUT "FREE AND FAIR" IS 
THE OPERATIVE PHRASE.  CONTINUED ZANU-PF INTIMIDATION 
COUPLED WITH CONCERTED ATTACKS ON JUDICIAL AND ELECTORAL 
INSTITUTIONS RISKS MUDDYING THE WATER TO THE DEGREE THAT 
EVEN ELECTORAL VICTORIES IN LIKELY ZANU-PF STRONGHOLDS 
COULD BE CALLED INTO QUESTION.  DE CROMBRUGGHE FULLY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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AGREED THAT THE TIDE OF THE ECONOMY IS INCREASINGLY 
RUNNING AGAINST THE MUGABE GOVERNMENT. 
 
5.  (C)  IN A RELATED DEVELOPMENT, ON AUGUST 22 EU 
DIPLOMAT ALEX KREMER TOLD POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF THAT 
THERE HAS BEEN NO PROGRESS ON THE ARTICLE 8 DIALOGUE 
WITH ZIMBABWE SINCE THE GENERAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL ISSUED 
ITS ULTIMATUM IN LATE JUNE.  ACCORDING TO KREMER, THE 
GAC WOULD NOT DECIDE ON NEXT STEPS -- INCLUDING A 
POSSIBLE MOVE TO ARTICLE 96 DISCUSSIONS -- UNTIL ITS 
NEXT GATHERING IN EARLY OCTOBER.  THAT SAID, THE EU 
WORKING GROUP ON AFRICA PLANNED TO MEET IN EARLY 
SEPTEMBER AND WOULD MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS THAT THE GAC 
WOULD LIKELY ABIDE BY. 
 
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AUSTRALIA: MUGABE WELCOME TO COME 
--------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) THE NUMBER-TWO FOR AUSTRALIA, DON FOLEY, AND 
POLITICAL OFFICER JENNY DEE SAID THAT THE GOZ HAS NOT 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTO8710 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02499  02 OF 02  240558Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  USNW-00  DODE-00  DS-00 
      EUR-00   VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   VCE-00   NSAE-00 
      IRM-00   EPAE-00  DSCC-00  DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /003W 
                  ------------------15E2E8  240558Z /38 
P 240550Z AUG 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9541 
USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY 
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002499 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF AND AF/S 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS-MANIGAULT 
LONDON FOR NEARY 
USEU FOR POLCOUNS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/03 
TAGS: PREL, ZI 
SUBJECT: GLEANINGS FROM THE DIPLOMATIC HUSTINGS -- IT'S 
         THE ECONOMY, STUPID, AS MUCH AS THE POLITICS 
 
YET INDICATED WHO WILL BE ON OR HEAD THE ZIMBABWEAN 
DELEGATION TO THE CHOGM IN BRISBANE, ALTHOUGH FOLEY 
ASSUMES MUGABE WILL GO.  FOLEY CITED SEVERAL RECENT 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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ARTICLES IN THE GOVERNMENT PRESS THAT CRITICIZED VARIOUS 
"RACIST" AUSTRALIAN POLITICIANS FOR CALLING ON CANBERRA 
TO BLOCK MUGABE'S PARTICIPATION.  FOLEY SAID THAT IT IS 
THE AUSTRALIAN FOREIGN MINISTER'S VIEW THAT MUGABE 
SHOULD ATTEND IF HE SO CHOOSES. 
 
6.  (C) DEE SAID THAT POSSIBLE COMMONWEALTH ELECTION 
MONITORING WAS "IN THE BACK OF OUR MINDS" BUT DID NOT 
EXPECT MUCH MOVEMENT ON THIS FRONT UNTIL AFTER THE 
CHOGM.  SHE SAID THE EIGHT-MEMBER COMMONWEALTH GROUP HAD 
THUS FAR BEEN UNABLE TO AGREE ON WHAT TOPICS TO DISCUSS 
-- THE GOZ SEEKS TO LIMIT TALKS TO LAND REFORM -- LET 
ALONE CONSIDER ELECTION MONITORING.  (NOTE:  IN A 
SEPARATE MEETING WITH POLCHIEF, DEE AND BRITISH 
POLITICAL OFFICER WERE NOT OPTIMISTIC THAT THE SEPTEMBER 
6 MEETING IN ABUJA OF THE EIGHT-MEMBER COMMONWEALTH 
GROUP WOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RESULTS.  LINDSAY 
COMMENTED THE AFRICAN PARTICIPANTS IN ABUJA WOULD PLAY A 
CRITICAL ROLE BUT EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT FM LAMIDO, WHO 
HAD TAKEN A SOFTER VIEW OF MUGABE THAN HAS OBASANJO, 
WOULD BE CHAIRING THE MEETING.)  DEE SAID THAT 
PROJECTING WHERE THE POLITICAL SITUATION WILL LEAD (A 
STAPLE OF DIPLOMATIC EXCHANGES HERE) IS CRYSTAL BALL 
GAZING, GIVEN THE VARIABLES.  HOWEVER, SHE AND FOLEY 
EXPRESSED DISMAY AT THE EFFECT OF THE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN 
ON THE AVERAGE ZIMBABWEAN. 
 
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COMMENT 
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                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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8.  IN OUR VIEW, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO SEPARATE BAD 
POLITICAL DECISIONS FROM ECONOMIC DECLINE IN THE CURRENT 
CONTEXT, WITH EACH FEEDING THE OTHER.  WE CANNOT SAY IF 
DE CROMBRUGGHE'S COMMENTS ON ARTICLE 8 REFLECT BELGIAN 
THINKING BUT WOULD APPRECIATE ANY INSIGHTS USEU CAN 
PROVIDE ON POSSIBLE DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE EU ON THIS 
ISSUE. 
 
ROTH 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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