US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN1624

UNCLAS YEREVAN 001624 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE, EUR/PGI, EAP/CM, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, CH, AM 
SUBJECT:  KOCHARIAN AND MINISTERS PLAN FIRST STATE VISIT TO 
CHINA SEPTEMBER 26-30 
 
 
Sensitive But Unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
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MAJOR DELEGATION EXPECTED FOR FIRST STATE VISIT 
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1. (SBU) MFA sources confirmed July 20 that Armenian 
President Robert Kocharian would travel to China September 
26-30.  The GOAM had not yet made this information public 
but will likely announce it to the press July 21 or 22. 
Several GOAM Foreign Ministers have traveled to China in the 
past as part of international conferences, but this trip 
will be the GOAM's first state visit to China.  Sources 
close to the President's office said Kocharian was planning 
to invite up to seven cabinet-level ministers on the trip, 
which would make it the largest GOAM delegation of its kind 
to date. 
 
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COMMENT 
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2. (SBU) If these meetings indeed come together, substantive 
discussion will not likely go beyond the prospects for 
further economic cooperation and policy collaboration in 
international fora.  Kocharian will no doubt attempt to 
portray the trip as evidence of an increased political 
profile vis-a-vis Turkey and Azerbaijan.  Pundits will 
attempt to link the visit with a perceived change in 
Armenia's longtime policy of "complementarity" between the 
U.S. and Russia.  If nothing else, the trip will add an 
unexpected factor into local political discussion this fall 
which was otherwise poised to center around the opposition's 
expected return to parliament and familiar foreign policy 
issues surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh and relations with 
Turkey. 
ORDWAY