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| Identifier: | 01HARARE2480 |
|---|---|
| Wikileaks: | View 01HARARE2480 at Wikileaks.org |
| Origin: | Embassy Harare |
| Created: | 2001-08-22 11:25:00 |
| Classification: | CONFIDENTIAL |
| Tags: | PREL EAID EAGR ZI |
| Redacted: | This cable was not redacted by Wikileaks. |
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
221125Z Aug 01
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4895
PAGE 01 HARARE 02480 01 OF 03 221422Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 COR-01 AGRE-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00
EB-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 AC-01
NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SP-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 BBG-00
PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /006W
------------------151F17 221422Z /68
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9522
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY
DEPT OF AGRICULTURE USD FAS WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002480
SIPDIS
CORRECTED COPY - USDA FAS WASHDC ADDED AS ADDEE NOT AS A PASS TO
STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/EPS
USAID FOR AFR/SA, NAN NEWMAN, LANCE DOWNING, AND C.W.T.
HAGELMAN; ALSO FOR B/HR/FFP JON BRAUSE
PRETORIA FOR AGATT RICK HELMS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/03
TAGS: PREL, EAID, EAGR, ZI
SUBJECT: UNDP AND DONORS MEET ON FOOD AID FOR ZIMBABWE
REF: ROME 4322
CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B) AND (D).
1. (C) SUMMARY. UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE VICTOR
ANGELO MET WITH A LARGE SEGMENT OF THE DONOR COMMUNITY
ON AUGUST 20 AT THE FORMER'S INVITATION TO DISCUSS
DEVELOPMENTS ON THE FOOD AID FRONT. THE GROUP FOCUSED
IN SEQUENCE ON THE DIMENSIONS OF THE CRISIS,
ESTABLISHMENT OF A HUMANITARIAN SECRETARIAT WITHIN UNDP,
AND POSSIBLE PROGRAM ACTIVITIES. ANGELO DESCRIBED HIGH-
LEVEL GOZ RESISTANCE TO REQUESTING HUMANITARIAN
ASSISTANCE DESPITE INCREASINGLY RELIABLE, BUT SO FAR
INCONSISTENT, PROJECTIONS THAT THERE WILL BE FOOD
SHORTAGES BY EARLY NEXT YEAR. HE EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT
CURRENT CONDITIONS ON COMMERCIAL FARMS COULD FURTHER
AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION. ANGELO SAID THAT HE PLANS TO
ESTABLISH IMMEDIATELY A RELIEF AND RECOVERY UNIT, WITH
OR WITHOUT GOZ APPROVAL THAT IN FACT WOULD BE A UN
PLANNING AND ASSESSMENT MECHANISM. ON THE PROGRAMMATIC
FRONT, MOST DONORS ARE RELUCTANT TO COMMIT SPECIFIC
RESOURCES UNTIL VIABLE DELIVERY MECHANISMS HAVE BEEN
IDENTIFIED AND A MORE QUANTITATIVE PICTURE OF THE GRAIN
SHORTAGE AND THE POTENTIAL FINANCIAL RESOURCES TO PAY
FOR IT HAVE BEEN EXPLORED. WHILE WE SHARE ANGELO'S
VIEWS THAT A SHORTAGE IS NEARLY CERTAIN, WE HAVE MANY
RESERVATIONS AT THIS POINT ABOUT THE BEST WAY TO ADDRESS
IT. WE INTEND TO GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THESE ISSUES
WITH A SENSE OF URGENCY. END SUMMARY.
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 02480 01 OF 03 221422Z
------------------------------
THE CRISIS: LET THEM EAT MAIZE
------------------------------
2. (C) ANGELO AND A TEAM OF UN OFFICIALS KICKED OFF THE
MEETING WITH DUTCH, GERMAN, DFID, SWEDE, NORWEGIAN,
JAPANESE, FRENCH, DANISH, AND U.S. REPRESENTATIVES BY
REVIEWING THE FOOD CRISIS. ANGELO CHARACTERIZED THE
SITUATION AS "EXTREMELY DIFFICULT" DUE TO WHAT HE
DESCRIBED AS THE GOZ POSITION. HE ASSERTED THAT
WORKING-LEVEL OFFICIALS IN RELEVANT LINE MINISTRIES
UNDERSTAND THERE IS A DIFFICULT "HUMANITARIAN" SITUATION
AHEAD AND HAVE AGREED IN PRINCIPLE ON A DOCUMENT AND A
DRAFT LETTER TO THE UN REQUESTING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE.
HOWEVER, THEY HAVE NOT YET SUCCEEDED IN GETTING THE
GREEN LIGHT FROM THE MINISTERIAL LEVEL, WHICH THEY CLAIM
IS UNWILLING TO TALK OF HUMANITARIAN NEED FOR
"POLITICAL" REASONS.
3. (U) THE LATEST FIGURES FROM THE GRAIN MARKETING
BOARD (GMB) AND STRATEGIC GRAIN RESERVE (SGR) INDICATE
THAT SHORTAGES LIE AHEAD. ANGELO SAID THAT GMB HAS ONLY
87 METRIC TONS OF WHEAT ON HAND, WITH THE REMAINDER
(APPROXIMATELY 40,500 MT) IN PRIVATE HANDS. ANGELO
ESTIMATED THIS AS ABOUT SIX WEEKS OF SUPPLY. MAIZE IS
SIMILARLY PROBLEMATIC, SINCE BOTH SMALL HOLDERS AND
COMMERCIAL FARMERS ARE HOLDING BACK THEIR STOCKS FROM
THE MARKET. (THIS COULD BE A WHOLLY WISE BUSINESS
DECISION IN THE CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION OF RAMPANT
INFLATION WHERE COMMODITIES ARE WORTH MORE THAN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 HARARE 02480 01 OF 03 221422Z
DEPRECIATING CASH.) THE GMB HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO
PURCHASE 32,000 MT TO DATE. SGR STOCKS ARE BEING DRAWN
DOWN AND WITH MARKET PRICES INCREASING, THE SGR IS
PROBABLY SHOWING A PROFIT ON PAPER, BUT IN HIGHLY
OVERVALUED CURRENCY. THE CRUX OF THE PROBLEM IS THE
GMB'S OFFERING PRICE OF ZIMBABWE DOLLAR (ZD) 7,500/MT,
FAR BELOW THE ZD 12,000/MT OFFERED BY PRIVATE SECTOR
BUYERS BEFORE THE GMB TOOK MONOPOLISTIC CONTROL OF THE
MARKET AND PROBABLY LESS THAN PRODUCER COST. (COMMENT:
THIS TOO REFLECTS THE MARKET AT WORK OUTSIDE THE
PARASTATAL GRAIN BOARDS, AND FURTHER SHOWS THE
INCREASING SCARCITY OF MAIZE AND WHEAT AND THE STEEP
DECLINE OF THE ZD.)
4. (SUB) TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS, THE GMB HAS ZD
1.3 BILLION BUDGETED FOR THE PURCHASING CAMPAIGN; ZD 6
BILLION IS REQUIRED TO PURCHASE THE ENTIRE CROP. THE
GMB NOW HOLDS 258,000 MT OF MAIZE, WITH ANOTHER 60,000
MT IN PRIVATE HANDS, A SUPPLY THAT COULD BE STRETCHED TO
MEET FOUR MONTHS OF CONSUMPTION.
5. (SBU) THERE ARE ADDITIONAL, LONGER-TERM CONCERNS AS
WELL. ANGELO SAID THAT HE IS NOT SURE THAT THE WHEAT
NOW IN THE FIELDS WILL BE HARVESTED. THE CURRENT
OPTIONS FOR COMMERCIAL FARMERS ARE TO HARVEST AND SELL
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4898
PAGE 01 HARARE 02480 02 OF 03 221423Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 COR-01 AGRE-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00
EB-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 AC-01
NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SP-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 BBG-00
PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /006W
------------------151F24 221423Z /68
O 221125Z AUG 01 ZEL
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9523
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY
DEPT OF AGRICULTURE USD FAS WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 002480
SIPDIS
CORRECTED COPY - USDA FAS WASHDC ADDED AS ADDEE NOT PASS TO
STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/EPS
USAID FOR AFR/SA, NAN NEWMAN, LANCE DOWNING, AND C.W.T.
HAGELMAN; ALSO FOR B/HR/FFP JON BRAUSE
PRETORIA FOR AGATT RICK HELMS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/03
TAGS: PREL, EAID, EAGR, ZI
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 02480 02 OF 03 221423Z
SUBJECT: UNDP AND DONORS MEET ON FOOD AID FOR ZIMBABWE
AT A LOSS, HARVEST AND HOLD (RISKING LOOTING,
CONFISCATION, OR ARREST IF THE FOOD SITUATION
DRASTICALLY SOURS), OR TO LEAVE IT IN THE FIELDS TO ROT.
ANGELO SAID THAT IN HIS RECENT TRAVELS THROUGH RURAL
AREAS, HE HAD SEEN LITTLE LAND PREPARATION UNDERWAY FOR
THE RAINY SEASON. (WE HAVE HEARD SIMILAR STORIES BUT
CANNOT QUANTIFY WHAT THE SPECIFIC IMPLICATIONS ARE OTHER
THAN LESS GRAIN IS LIKELY TO BE HARVESTED.) THERE WERE
ALSO MORE SQUATTERS IN EVIDENCE, AND GROWING CHAOS
SWIRLING AROUND THE ENTIRE RESETTLEMENT INITIATIVE.
6. (C) ANGELO CALCULATED (BY WHAT METHODOLOGY WE DON'T
KNOW) THAT IN SPITE OF THE MANY VARIABLES, A 300-400,000
MT SHORTAGE IS LIKELY IN 2002. DESPITE RUMORS THAT THE
GOZ WILL FORGO (UNSPECIFIED) EXTERNAL DEBT PAYMENTS AND
USE REVENUE FOR GOLD SALES TO FINANCE COMMERCIAL
PURCHASES, UNDP CONTACTS IN THE FINANCE MINISTRY SAY
THAT THEY ARE NOT PRIVY TO HOW THE GOZ WILL COME UP WITH
THE REQUIRED FOREX TO PAY FOR A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF
IMPORTS. IN RESPONSE TO QUERIES FROM THE DONORS, ANGELO
SPECULATED THAT NGOS, INCLUDING MANY FAITH-BASED GROUPS,
WOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO MAKE UP FOR COMMERCIAL
SHORTFALLS THROUGH NON-GOVERNMENTAL DISTRIBUTION
PROGRAMS IN RURAL AREAS. HE STATED BLUNTLY THAT HE
THOUGHT THAT GOZ/ZANU INSIDERS SEE SUCH "HUMANITARIAN"
INITIATIVES AS A TROJAN HORSE THAT COULD HAVE MUCH WIDER
IMPLICATIONS FOR ELECTORAL EDUCATION, HUMAN RIGHTS
ACTIVITIES, AND PROMOTION OF THE OPPOSITION. HE SAID
THAT "OUR FRIEND JOSEPH (CHINOTIMBMA)" AND HIS ILK
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 02480 02 OF 03 221423Z
RISKED RUNNING THE NGOS OUT OF RURAL AREAS FASTER THAN
THEY WENT IN.
-------------------------------------------
HUMANITARIAN SECRETARIAT: WHAT'S IN A NAME?
-------------------------------------------
7. (C) ANGELO ADMITTED THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO PROGRESS
IN LAUNCHING A PROPOSED UNDP HUMANITARIAN SECRETARIAT,
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED TO COMMENCE OPERATIONS IN AUGUST,
BECAUSE THE GOZ HAS NOT GIVEN UNDP A GREEN LIGHT. (THE
SWEDES, DUTCH AND US HAVE AGREED TO PROVIDE FUNDS FOR
THIS INITIATIVE.) ANGELO SAID THAT HE MAY HAVE NO
OPTION BUT TO MOVE AHEAD AND ESTABLISH THIS
UNILATERALLY, BRINGING IT IN UNDER THE GOZ'S RADAR USING
THE RUBRIC OF A "RELIEF AND RECOVERY UNIT". ABSENT GOZ
APPROVAL OR TERMS OF REFERENCE, HE WOULD BILL THIS AS AN
INTEGRAL PART OF UNDP PROGRAMMING.
-------------------
PROGRAM THE PROBLEM
-------------------
8. (C) ANGELO SAID THAT THIS APPROACH (ALSO A TROJAN
HORSE) WOULD PERMIT EXPEDITIOUS PLANNING. NONETHELESS,
IT WOULD REQUIRE COSMETIC PROGRAMS -- CHILD SURVIVAL
NEED ASSESSMENT, ETC. -- BEHIND WHICH IT COULD BEGIN
ASSESSMENT AND PLANNING FOR FOOD DELIVERY MECHANISMS.
SEVERAL OF THE DONORS RIGHTLY BALKED AT THIS. THE DFID
REPRESENTATIVE OBSERVED THAT IT MIGHT BE EASIER TO DO A
NUMBER OF SMALL REGIONAL BILATERAL PROGRAMS UNDER THE
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 HARARE 02480 02 OF 03 221423Z
RADAR RATHER THAN A LARGER, MULTILATERAL EFFORT. THE
SWEDES AGREED, POINTING OUT THAT THE FOOD SHORTAGES
COULD PROVE TO CONFIRM INITIAL ASSUMPTIONS THAT THEY
WILL BE LOCALIZED. THE DFID TEAM ALSO REJECTED OUT OF
HAND RECENT GOZ SUGGESTIONS THAT A REGIONAL APPROACH BE
TAKEN, SINCE IN DFID'S VIEW THIS WOULD PERMIT THE GOZ TO
SANITIZE GRANT COMMODITIES THROUGH AN UPRIGHT NEIGHBOR
SUCH AS BOTSWANA BEFORE LAYING HANDS ON THE CEREALS FOR
GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS.
9. (C) OTHER PARTICIPANTS UNDERLINED THAT THE LACK OF
WFP EXPERTISE ON THE GROUND COULD BE A SERIOUS
IMPEDIMENT TO AN INDEPENDENT AND ACCURATE ASSESSMENT.
ANGELO SAID THAT FOR THE MOMENT HE WAS TAPPING WFP
PERSONNEL FROM ZAMBIA AND MOZAMBIQUE TO BRIDGE THE GAP.
THERE WAS A FINAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE DONORS THAT NONE
OF THEM FAVOR A RELIEF AND RECOVERY UNIT THAT AT THIS
TIME GOES BEYOND AN ASSESSMENT, MONITORING AND
COORDINATION ROLE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SWEDES,
EVERYONE WANTED TO SEE WHAT FOOD DELIVERY MECHANISMS
COULD BE IDENTIFIED BEFORE COMMITTING RESOURCES.
-------
COMMENT
-------
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4899
PAGE 01 HARARE 02480 03 OF 03 221423Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 COR-01 AGRE-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00
EB-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 AC-01
NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SP-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 BBG-00
PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /006W
------------------151F26 221424Z /68
O 221125Z AUG 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9524
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY
DEPT OF AGRICULTURE USD FAS WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 002480
SIPDIS
CORRECTED COPY - USDA FAS WASHDC ADDED AS ADDEE NOT PASS TO
STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/EPS
USAID FOR AFR/SA, NAN NEWMAN, LANCE DOWNING, AND C.W.T.
HAGELMAN; ALSO FOR B/HR/FFP JON BRAUSE
PRETORIA FOR AGATT RICK HELMS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/03
TAGS: PREL, EAID, EAGR, ZI
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 02480 03 OF 03 221423Z
SUBJECT: UNDP AND DONORS MEET ON FOOD AID FOR ZIMBABWE
10. (C) THERE WAS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A DOMESTIC
SHORTFALL OF CEREALS IS A CERTAINTY, BUT THERE WAS NO
CONCLUSIVE AGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THIS OR TO WHAT
THE EXTENT OF EXTERNAL NON-COMMERCIAL ASSISTANCE MIGHT
BE REQUIRED. FOR ITS PART, THE GOZ INPUT INTO THE MOST
RECENT SADC FOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM REPORT INDICATES
THAT THE GOZ PLANS TO PURCHASE COMMERCIALLY 544,000 MT
OF CEREAL AND RESTORE THE SGR TO A CARRYOVER SURPLUS OF
500,000 MT OF MAIZE AND 200,000 MT OF WHEAT. THE WFP IS
STILL IN THE WATCHING PHASE (REFTEL) AND THE UNDP HERE
FINDS ITSELF FLANKED BY A RECALCITRANT AND POLITICIZED
GOZ ON ONE SIDE, AND SKEPTICAL DONORS ON THE OTHER.
11. (C) GIVEN THE WELTER OF CONFLICTING FIGURES AND
APPROACHES, ADDITIONAL INFORMATION/PLANNING WILL BE
NECESSARY BEFORE A COHERENT BILATERAL OR MULTILATERAL
USG PROPOSAL CAN BE PLACED ON THE TABLE. THE MISSION
WILL CONSULT WIDELY AND PROVIDE INPUT AS URGENTLY AS
POSSIBLE. WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED THAT ZIMBABWE'S
EVOLVING ECONOMIC INSTABILITY, DRIVEN BY A STEEPLY
DECLINING ZD AND UNREALISTIC EXCHANGE RATES, WILL HAVE A
HEAVY AND MEASURABLE IMPACT ON THE FUTURE FOOD SITUATION
AND THE GOZ'S ABILITY TO PURCHASE GRAIN COMMERCIALLY,
BOTH DOGMATICALLY AND FOR IMPORTS. THUS FAR THE GOZ
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT IN ITS
CALCULATIONS.
ROTH
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 02480 03 OF 03 221423Z
CONFIDENTIAL
>
@@@OASYS@@@
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4382
PAGE 01 HARARE 02480 01 OF 03 221200Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EB-00
VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00
NSCE-00 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00
SP-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 BBG-00 PMB-00
DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /005W
------------------150EEC 221200Z /75
O 221125Z AUG 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9522
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002480
SIPDIS
DEPT PASS TO DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/EPS
USAID FOR AFR/SA, NAN NEWMAN, LANCE DOWNING, AND C.W.T.
HAGELMAN; ALSO FOR B/HR/FFP JON BRAUSE
PRETORIA FOR AGATT RICK HELMS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/03
TAGS: PREL, EAID, EAGR, ZI
SUBJECT: UNDP AND DONORS MEET ON FOOD AID FOR ZIMBABWE
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 02480 01 OF 03 221200Z
REF: ROME 4322
CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B) AND (D).
1. (C) SUMMARY. UNDP RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE VICTOR
ANGELO MET WITH A LARGE SEGMENT OF THE DONOR COMMUNITY
ON AUGUST 20 AT THE FORMER'S INVITATION TO DISCUSS
DEVELOPMENTS ON THE FOOD AID FRONT. THE GROUP FOCUSED
IN SEQUENCE ON THE DIMENSIONS OF THE CRISIS,
ESTABLISHMENT OF A HUMANITARIAN SECRETARIAT WITHIN UNDP,
AND POSSIBLE PROGRAM ACTIVITIES. ANGELO DESCRIBED HIGH-
LEVEL GOZ RESISTANCE TO REQUESTING HUMANITARIAN
ASSISTANCE DESPITE INCREASINGLY RELIABLE, BUT SO FAR
INCONSISTENT, PROJECTIONS THAT THERE WILL BE FOOD
SHORTAGES BY EARLY NEXT YEAR. HE EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT
CURRENT CONDITIONS ON COMMERCIAL FARMS COULD FURTHER
AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION. ANGELO SAID THAT HE PLANS TO
ESTABLISH IMMEDIATELY A RELIEF AND RECOVERY UNIT, WITH
OR WITHOUT GOZ APPROVAL THAT IN FACT WOULD BE A UN
PLANNING AND ASSESSMENT MECHANISM. ON THE PROGRAMMATIC
FRONT, MOST DONORS ARE RELUCTANT TO COMMIT SPECIFIC
RESOURCES UNTIL VIABLE DELIVERY MECHANISMS HAVE BEEN
IDENTIFIED AND A MORE QUANTITATIVE PICTURE OF THE GRAIN
SHORTAGE AND THE POTENTIAL FINANCIAL RESOURCES TO PAY
FOR IT HAVE BEEN EXPLORED. WHILE WE SHARE ANGELO'S
VIEWS THAT A SHORTAGE IS NEARLY CERTAIN, WE HAVE MANY
RESERVATIONS AT THIS POINT ABOUT THE BEST WAY TO ADDRESS
IT. WE INTEND TO GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THESE ISSUES
WITH A SENSE OF URGENCY. END SUMMARY.
------------------------------
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 HARARE 02480 01 OF 03 221200Z
THE CRISIS: LET THEM EAT MAIZE
------------------------------
2. (C) ANGELO AND A TEAM OF UN OFFICIALS KICKED OFF THE
MEETING WITH DUTCH, GERMAN, DFID, SWEDE, NORWEGIAN,
JAPANESE, FRENCH, DANISH, AND U.S. REPRESENTATIVES BY
REVIEWING THE FOOD CRISIS. ANGELO CHARACTERIZED THE
SITUATION AS "EXTREMELY DIFFICULT" DUE TO WHAT HE
DESCRIBED AS THE GOZ POSITION. HE ASSERTED THAT
WORKING-LEVEL OFFICIALS IN RELEVANT LINE MINISTRIES
UNDERSTAND THERE IS A DIFFICULT "HUMANITARIAN" SITUATION
AHEAD AND HAVE AGREED IN PRINCIPLE ON A DOCUMENT AND A
DRAFT LETTER TO THE UN REQUESTING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE.
HOWEVER, THEY HAVE NOT YET SUCCEEDED IN GETTING THE
GREEN LIGHT FROM THE MINISTERIAL LEVEL, WHICH THEY CLAIM
IS UNWILLING TO TALK OF HUMANITARIAN NEED FOR
"POLITICAL" REASONS.
3. (U) THE LATEST FIGURES FROM THE GRAIN MARKETING
BOARD (GMB) AND STRATEGIC GRAIN RESERVE (SGR) INDICATE
THAT SHORTAGES LIE AHEAD. ANGELO SAID THAT GMB HAS ONLY
87 METRIC TONS OF WHEAT ON HAND, WITH THE REMAINDER
(APPROXIMATELY 40,500 MT) IN PRIVATE HANDS. ANGELO
ESTIMATED THIS AS ABOUT SIX WEEKS OF SUPPLY. MAIZE IS
SIMILARLY PROBLEMATIC, SINCE BOTH SMALL HOLDERS AND
COMMERCIAL FARMERS ARE HOLDING BACK THEIR STOCKS FROM
THE MARKET. (THIS COULD BE A WHOLLY WISE BUSINESS
DECISION IN THE CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION OF RAMPANT
INFLATION WHERE COMMODITIES ARE WORTH MORE THAN
DEPRECIATING CASH.) THE GMB HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO
PURCHASE 32,000 MT TO DATE. SGR STOCKS ARE BEING DRAWN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 HARARE 02480 01 OF 03 221200Z
DOWN AND WITH MARKET PRICES INCREASING, THE SGR IS
PROBABLY SHOWING A PROFIT ON PAPER, BUT IN HIGHLY
OVERVALUED CURRENCY. THE CRUX OF THE PROBLEM IS THE
GMB'S OFFERING PRICE OF ZIMBABWE DOLLAR (ZD) 7,500/MT,
FAR BELOW THE ZD 12,000/MT OFFERED BY PRIVATE SECTOR
BUYERS BEFORE THE GMB TOOK MONOPOLISTIC CONTROL OF THE
MARKET AND PROBABLY LESS THAN PRODUCER COST. (COMMENT:
THIS TOO REFLECTS THE MARKET AT WORK OUTSIDE THE
PARASTATAL GRAIN BOARDS, AND FURTHER SHOWS THE
INCREASING SCARCITY OF MAIZE AND WHEAT AND THE STEEP
DECLINE OF THE ZD.)
4. (SUB) TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS, THE GMB HAS ZD
1.3 BILLION BUDGETED FOR THE PURCHASING CAMPAIGN; ZD 6
BILLION IS REQUIRED TO PURCHASE THE ENTIRE CROP. THE
GMB NOW HOLDS 258,000 MT OF MAIZE, WITH ANOTHER 60,000
MT IN PRIVATE HANDS, A SUPPLY THAT COULD BE STRETCHED TO
MEET FOUR MONTHS OF CONSUMPTION.
5. (SBU) THERE ARE ADDITIONAL, LONGER-TERM CONCERNS AS
WELL. ANGELO SAID THAT HE IS NOT SURE THAT THE WHEAT
NOW IN THE FIELDS WILL BE HARVESTED. THE CURRENT
OPTIONS FOR COMMERCIAL FARMERS ARE TO HARVEST AND SELL
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4383
PAGE 01 HARARE 02480 02 OF 03 221201Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EB-00
VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00
NSCE-00 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00
SP-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 BBG-00 PMB-00
DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /005W
------------------150EF8 221201Z /75
O 221125Z AUG 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9523
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 002480
SIPDIS
DEPT PASS TO DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/EPS
USAID FOR AFR/SA, NAN NEWMAN, LANCE DOWNING, AND C.W.T.
HAGELMAN; ALSO FOR B/HR/FFP JON BRAUSE
PRETORIA FOR AGATT RICK HELMS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/03
TAGS: PREL, EAID, EAGR, ZI
SUBJECT: UNDP AND DONORS MEET ON FOOD AID FOR ZIMBABWE
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 02480 02 OF 03 221201Z
AT A LOSS, HARVEST AND HOLD (RISKING LOOTING,
CONFISCATION, OR ARREST IF THE FOOD SITUATION
DRASTICALLY SOURS), OR TO LEAVE IT IN THE FIELDS TO ROT.
ANGELO SAID THAT IN HIS RECENT TRAVELS THROUGH RURAL
AREAS, HE HAD SEEN LITTLE LAND PREPARATION UNDERWAY FOR
THE RAINY SEASON. (WE HAVE HEARD SIMILAR STORIES BUT
CANNOT QUANTIFY WHAT THE SPECIFIC IMPLICATIONS ARE OTHER
THAN LESS GRAIN IS LIKELY TO BE HARVESTED.) THERE WERE
ALSO MORE SQUATTERS IN EVIDENCE, AND GROWING CHAOS
SWIRLING AROUND THE ENTIRE RESETTLEMENT INITIATIVE.
6. (C) ANGELO CALCULATED (BY WHAT METHODOLOGY WE DON'T
KNOW) THAT IN SPITE OF THE MANY VARIABLES, A 300-400,000
MT SHORTAGE IS LIKELY IN 2002. DESPITE RUMORS THAT THE
GOZ WILL FORGO (UNSPECIFIED) EXTERNAL DEBT PAYMENTS AND
USE REVENUE FOR GOLD SALES TO FINANCE COMMERCIAL
PURCHASES, UNDP CONTACTS IN THE FINANCE MINISTRY SAY
THAT THEY ARE NOT PRIVY TO HOW THE GOZ WILL COME UP WITH
THE REQUIRED FOREX TO PAY FOR A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF
IMPORTS. IN RESPONSE TO QUERIES FROM THE DONORS, ANGELO
SPECULATED THAT NGOS, INCLUDING MANY FAITH-BASED GROUPS,
WOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO MAKE UP FOR COMMERCIAL
SHORTFALLS THROUGH NON-GOVERNMENTAL DISTRIBUTION
PROGRAMS IN RURAL AREAS. HE STATED BLUNTLY THAT HE
THOUGHT THAT GOZ/ZANU INSIDERS SEE SUCH "HUMANITARIAN"
INITIATIVES AS A TROJAN HORSE THAT COULD HAVE MUCH WIDER
IMPLICATIONS FOR ELECTORAL EDUCATION, HUMAN RIGHTS
ACTIVITIES, AND PROMOTION OF THE OPPOSITION. HE SAID
THAT "OUR FRIEND JOSEPH (CHINOTIMBMA)" AND HIS ILK
RISKED RUNNING THE NGOS OUT OF RURAL AREAS FASTER THAN
THEY WENT IN.
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-------------------------------------------
HUMANITARIAN SECRETARIAT: WHAT'S IN A NAME?
-------------------------------------------
7. (C) ANGELO ADMITTED THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO PROGRESS
IN LAUNCHING A PROPOSED UNDP HUMANITARIAN SECRETARIAT,
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED TO COMMENCE OPERATIONS IN AUGUST,
BECAUSE THE GOZ HAS NOT GIVEN UNDP A GREEN LIGHT. (THE
SWEDES, DUTCH AND US HAVE AGREED TO PROVIDE FUNDS FOR
THIS INITIATIVE.) ANGELO SAID THAT HE MAY HAVE NO
OPTION BUT TO MOVE AHEAD AND ESTABLISH THIS
UNILATERALLY, BRINGING IT IN UNDER THE GOZ'S RADAR USING
THE RUBRIC OF A "RELIEF AND RECOVERY UNIT". ABSENT GOZ
APPROVAL OR TERMS OF REFERENCE, HE WOULD BILL THIS AS AN
INTEGRAL PART OF UNDP PROGRAMMING.
-------------------
PROGRAM THE PROBLEM
-------------------
8. (C) ANGELO SAID THAT THIS APPROACH (ALSO A TROJAN
HORSE) WOULD PERMIT EXPEDITIOUS PLANNING. NONETHELESS,
IT WOULD REQUIRE COSMETIC PROGRAMS -- CHILD SURVIVAL
NEED ASSESSMENT, ETC. -- BEHIND WHICH IT COULD BEGIN
ASSESSMENT AND PLANNING FOR FOOD DELIVERY MECHANISMS.
SEVERAL OF THE DONORS RIGHTLY BALKED AT THIS. THE DFID
REPRESENTATIVE OBSERVED THAT IT MIGHT BE EASIER TO DO A
NUMBER OF SMALL REGIONAL BILATERAL PROGRAMS UNDER THE
RADAR RATHER THAN A LARGER, MULTILATERAL EFFORT. THE
SWEDES AGREED, POINTING OUT THAT THE FOOD SHORTAGES
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PAGE 04 HARARE 02480 02 OF 03 221201Z
COULD PROVE TO CONFIRM INITIAL ASSUMPTIONS THAT THEY
WILL BE LOCALIZED. THE DFID TEAM ALSO REJECTED OUT OF
HAND RECENT GOZ SUGGESTIONS THAT A REGIONAL APPROACH BE
TAKEN, SINCE IN DFID'S VIEW THIS WOULD PERMIT THE GOZ TO
SANITIZE GRANT COMMODITIES THROUGH AN UPRIGHT NEIGHBOR
SUCH AS BOTSWANA BEFORE LAYING HANDS ON THE CEREALS FOR
GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS.
9. (C) OTHER PARTICIPANTS UNDERLINED THAT THE LACK OF
WFP EXPERTISE ON THE GROUND COULD BE A SERIOUS
IMPEDIMENT TO AN INDEPENDENT AND ACCURATE ASSESSMENT.
ANGELO SAID THAT FOR THE MOMENT HE WAS TAPPING WFP
PERSONNEL FROM ZAMBIA AND MOZAMBIQUE TO BRIDGE THE GAP.
THERE WAS A FINAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE DONORS THAT NONE
OF THEM FAVOR A RELIEF AND RECOVERY UNIT THAT AT THIS
TIME GOES BEYOND AN ASSESSMENT, MONITORING AND
COORDINATION ROLE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SWEDES,
EVERYONE WANTED TO SEE WHAT FOOD DELIVERY MECHANISMS
COULD BE IDENTIFIED BEFORE COMMITTING RESOURCES.
-------
COMMENT
-------
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4385
PAGE 01 HARARE 02480 03 OF 03 221201Z
ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EB-00
VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00
NSCE-00 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00
SP-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 BBG-00 PMB-00
DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /005W
------------------150F04 221201Z /75
O 221125Z AUG 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9524
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 002480
SIPDIS
DEPT PASS TO DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/EPS
USAID FOR AFR/SA, NAN NEWMAN, LANCE DOWNING, AND C.W.T.
HAGELMAN; ALSO FOR B/HR/FFP JON BRAUSE
PRETORIA FOR AGATT RICK HELMS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/03
TAGS: PREL, EAID, EAGR, ZI
SUBJECT: UNDP AND DONORS MEET ON FOOD AID FOR ZIMBABWE
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PAGE 02 HARARE 02480 03 OF 03 221201Z
10. (C) THERE WAS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A DOMESTIC
SHORTFALL OF CEREALS IS A CERTAINTY, BUT THERE WAS NO
CONCLUSIVE AGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THIS OR TO WHAT
THE EXTENT OF EXTERNAL NON-COMMERCIAL ASSISTANCE MIGHT
BE REQUIRED. FOR ITS PART, THE GOZ INPUT INTO THE MOST
RECENT SADC FOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM REPORT INDICATES
THAT THE GOZ PLANS TO PURCHASE COMMERCIALLY 544,000 MT
OF CEREAL AND RESTORE THE SGR TO A CARRYOVER SURPLUS OF
500,000 MT OF MAIZE AND 200,000 MT OF WHEAT. THE WFP IS
STILL IN THE WATCHING PHASE (REFTEL) AND THE UNDP HERE
FINDS ITSELF FLANKED BY A RECALCITRANT AND POLITICIZED
GOZ ON ONE SIDE, AND SKEPTICAL DONORS ON THE OTHER.
11. (C) GIVEN THE WELTER OF CONFLICTING FIGURES AND
APPROACHES, ADDITIONAL INFORMATION/PLANNING WILL BE
NECESSARY BEFORE A COHERENT BILATERAL OR MULTILATERAL
USG PROPOSAL CAN BE PLACED ON THE TABLE. THE MISSION
WILL CONSULT WIDELY AND PROVIDE INPUT AS URGENTLY AS
POSSIBLE. WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED THAT ZIMBABWE'S
EVOLVING ECONOMIC INSTABILITY, DRIVEN BY A STEEPLY
DECLINING ZD AND UNREALISTIC EXCHANGE RATES, WILL HAVE A
HEAVY AND MEASURABLE IMPACT ON THE FUTURE FOOD SITUATION
AND THE GOZ'S ABILITY TO PURCHASE GRAIN COMMERCIALLY,
BOTH DOGMATICALLY AND FOR IMPORTS. THUS FAR THE GOZ
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT IN ITS
CALCULATIONS.
ROTH
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