US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS3072

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 003072 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/ERA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT:  European Parliament: Key Leadership 
Decisions at July 20-23 Plenary 
 
 
1. (U) SUMMARY:  At the July 20-23 European 
Parliament (EP) plenary session, the 732 newly 
elected MEPs from the 25 member states will formally 
take their seats.  The session's most significant 
event will probably be the July 22 vote on Jose 
Manuel Durao Barroso's nomination as Commission 
President.  MEPs will also elect the EP's next 
president, choosing between leading candidates Josep 
Borrell, a Spanish Socialist, and Polish Liberal 
Bronislaw Geremek.  Other items of business include 
determining new committee and inter-parliamentary 
delegation assignments, reviewing the results of the 
June 17-18 European Council and achievements of the 
Irish Presidency, and receiving a formal 
presentation of the Dutch Presidency's program for 
the rest of 2004. END SUMMARY. 
 
EP PRESIDENT: BORRELL OR GEREMEK? 
--------------------------------- 
 
2.  The 732 MEPs -- meeting for the first time since 
the June 13 elections -- will elect a new EP 
President on July 20, the plenary's opening day. 
There are three candidates for the post: 
 
-- Josep Borrell:  A Spanish socialist who was 
recently elected to the EP for the first time, 
Borrell has long been prominent on the Spanish 
political scene, most notably as Transport and 
Energy Minister in the 1990s.  More recently, 
Borrell was a member of the Spanish national 
parliamentary delegation to the Convention that 
drafted the EU Constitution.  He is expected to be 
elected EP President -- despite his lack of prior EP 
experience -- due to a "technical agreement" 
concluded between the EP's two biggest groups, the 
Christian Democrats and Conservatives (EPP-ED) and 
the Socialists (PES), that would guarantee Borrell 
the first 2-1/2 year term and an EPP-ED candidate 
(likely EPP-ED leader Hans-Gert Poettering) the 
second half-term. 
 
-- Bronislaw Geremek:  A Polish Liberal, Geremek -- 
like Borrell -- is a newcomer to the EP.  A former 
foreign minister, he was also a member of 
Solidarnosc and played an active role in the fall of 
communism in Poland.  Geremek supported U.S. 
intervention in Iraq and is considered an 
Atlanticist.  His candidacy has the support of the 
88 members of the newly created "Alliance of the 
Liberals and Democrats for Europe" (ALDE), composed 
of the former Liberals (ELDR) plus the French 
center-right UDF, Italian "Margharita," and several 
smaller parties.  He will also be supported by the 
Greens. 
 
-- Francis Wurtz: A French Communist and leader of 
the far-left GUE-NGL group (41 members), Wurtz has 
been a MEP since the first direct EP elections in 
1979.  He has no chance of going beyond the first 
round of voting, however. 
 
3.  COMMENT:  Although Josep Borrell appears to be 
the guaranteed winner, the EPP-ED and Socialists 
have started to privately question their alliance. 
Geremek outscored Borrell in a July 13 debate; 
Borrell then angered the EPP-ED by declaring that 
since the vote would be by secret ballot, MEPs could 
not be forced to vote for the EPP-ED candidate for 
the second term -- suggesting that the PES might not 
uphold its end of the deal.  The EPP-ED on July 14 
warmly welcomed Geremek at a political group 
hearing; Poettering declared that "even if we do not 
vote for you, you should be assured of our greatest 
esteem."  The atmosphere during Borrell's hearing 
the next day was, in contrast, extremely cold. 
 
4.  COMMENT, Continued:  Geremek's candidacy may 
also look more attractive to the EPP-ED due to the 
Liberals' announcement that they will support EPP-ED 
member Jose Manuel Durao Barroso for Commission 
President -- a commitment that many socialist 
national delegations remain reluctant to make 
publicly.  Some EP observers believe that if the 
EPP-ED could guarantee an alternative center-right 
majority involving the ALDE, the technical agreement 
with the Socialists will fall apart and Geremek 
could become an unexpected winner of the July 20 EP 
Presidential vote.  Building such an alternative 
center-right majority would probably be very 
difficult, however, and would have to involve 
euroskeptic or extreme-right factions that neither 
the EPP-ED nor the ALDE wants to engage. END COMMENT 
 
BARROSO LIKELY TO GET A NARROW MAJORITY 
---------------------------------------- 
 
5.  The EP on July 22 will vote on Jose Manuel Durao 
Barroso's nomination as Commission President. 
Barroso, who addressed EP political groups during 
July 13-14 hearings, will have one more chance to 
convince MEPs during additional hearings on July 21. 
Although Barroso should win confirmation, the vote 
will not be unanimous: the Greens, far left, and 
many Socialists have indicated that they will vote 
against him. 
 
6.  Barroso called for close transatlantic 
cooperation during his hearings before the 
Socialists (PES) and center-right (EPP-ED), 
stressing that "political dialogue with the U.S. is 
crucial" and that the EU should work closely with 
its "ally and partner."  He defended support for the 
US on Iraq, asserting that "between the U.S. and 
Saddam, I chose the U.S.".  However, during his July 
13 hearing with the Green party, he added: "I have a 
great admiration for the United States, its civil 
society, its universities, and its vitality.  But I 
hate arrogance, militarism, and unilateralism." 
 
DEBATES ON IRISH AND DUTCH PRESIDENCY 
------------------------------------- 
 
7.  Also on July 21, Irish Prime Minister Bertie 
Ahern will report to MEPs on the progress made under 
the Irish Presidency.  His statement will include 
the two European Council meetings in June, which led 
to agreement on both a draft constitutional treaty 
and the nomination of Jose Manuel Durao Barroso as 
Commission President. Later in the day, Dutch Prime 
Minister Jan Peter Balkenende will lay out the Dutch 
Presidency's working program for July-December 2004. 
 
NEW EP COMMITTEES AND DELEGATIONS 
--------------------------------- 
 
8.  On July 22 MEPs will also decide on the 
membership of Parliament's committees and inter- 
parliamentary delegations (including the delegation 
responsible for relations with the United States and 
the Transatlantic Legislators' Dialogue) for the 
next two and a half years.  That afternoon, most 
committees will hold their first meetings, at which 
they will elect their own Chairs and Vice-Chairs. 
(NOTE:  The top jobs in committees and delegations, 
as well as EP vice-presidents and quaestors, are 
distributed among the various political groups 
according to a mathematical method of calculation 
called the "D'hondt procedure."  However, we were 
told that deals between political groups can 
sometimes "bend" the strict attribution rules. END 
NOTE.) 
 
MCKINLEY