US embassy cable - 01HARARE2470

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 002470 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/11 
TAGS: KDEM, PGOV, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE REGIME'S ATTITUDE TOWARD ELECTION 
MONITORS (C-NA1-00977) 
 
 
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REF: STATE 133497 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) BELOW ARE EMBASSY HARARE'S RESPONSES TO REFTEL 
TASKING QUESTIONS: 
 
A.  (C) HIGH-LEVEL GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) 
OFFICIALS HAVE EXPRESSED TO US OVER THE LAST SEVERAL 
MONTHS THE GOZ'S INTENTION TO PERMIT OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT 
OBSERVERS OF THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  THIS 
INCLUDES US, UN, EU, SADC, AND COMMONWEALTH/UK 
OBSERVERS, ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT EXPECT THE GOZ TO 
SPECIFICALLY INVITE ANY OBSERVERS, WITH THE POSSIBLE 
EXCEPTION OF SADC.  WE DO NOT EXPECT THIS OFFICIAL 
POSITION TO CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY, EVEN WITH A FURTHER 
DETERIORATION OF ZIMBABWE'S RELATIONS WITH THE WEST, 
BECAUSE THE GOZ VALUES THE STAMP OF LEGITIMACY WESTERN 
OBSERVERS COULD CONFER ON AN ELECTION OUTCOME. 
 
B.  (C) ASSUMING THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC 
RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA) HAS NOT YET PASSED THE US CONGRESS, 
THE GOZ IS LIKELY TO ALLOW AT LEAST ONE GROUP OF 
OBSERVERS INTO ZIMBABWE ANYTIME BETWEEN NOW AND THE END 
OF 2001.  WHETHER ADDITIONAL VISITS ARE PERMITTED MAY 
DEPEND ON THE PASSAGE OF THE ZDERA AS WELL AS THE 
PUBLICITY AND NATURE OF THE FINDINGS OF THE INITIAL 
VISIT.  WE DEEM IT LIKELY THAT ONE OF THE GOZ'S 
RESPONSES TO ZDERA PASSAGE, OR THE IMPOSITION OF 
PERSONAL SANCTIONS TARGETING PRESIDENT MUGABE AND KEY 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  02470  211601Z 
ADVISORS, WILL BE TO PROHIBIT US-SPONSORED CAMPAIGN 
OBSERVERS FROM ENTERING ZIMBABWE BEFORE THE ELECTION. 
(NOTE: THE GOZ IS STILL LIKELY TO ADMIT OFFICIAL USG 
OBSERVERS INTO ZIMBABWE FOR THE ACTUAL POLLING DAYS 
THEMSELVES, GIVEN THAT ZIMBABWEAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS 
HISTORICALLY HAVE BEEN PEACEFUL.  END NOTE.)  IN 
ADDITION, IF THE INITIAL GROUP'S, OR SUBSEQUENT GROUPS', 
FINDINGS ARE NEGATIVE AND WIDELY PUBLICIZED, THE GOZ IS 
LIKELY TO BAN FUTURE VISITS BY OBSERVERS FROM THE SAME 
ORGANIZATION. 
 
C.  (C) CAMPAIGN OBSERVERS, I.E. GROUPS ADMITTED WELL 
BEFORE THE ELECTION, WILL ENCOUNTER FEWER GOZ OBSTACLES 
THAN OBSERVERS ADMITTED TO MONITOR THE PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION ITSELF.  ONCE CAMPAIGN OBSERVERS ARE ADMITTED, 
THEY WILL LIKELY BE PERMITTED TO TRAVEL FREELY ABOUT THE 
COUNTRY; HOWEVER, CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE BY INTELLIGENCE 
ORGANIZATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  THE EXCEPTION TO 
THIS WILL OCCUR IF CAMPAIGN OBSERVERS ARE IN COUNTRY 
IMMEDIATELY BEFORE OR DURING OTHER ELECTIONS, SUCH AS 
THE BULAWAYO MAYORAL ELECTION AND MAKONI WEST BY- 
ELECTION SCHEDULED FOR 8-9 SEPTEMBER, AND THE CHIKOMBA 
BY-ELECTION SCHEDULED FOR 22-23 SEPTEMBER.  IF THIS IS 
THE CASE, CAMPAIGN OBSERVERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO 
ENCOUNTER OBSTACLES SUCH AS POLICE CORDONS AND "NO-GO" 
AREAS IN THE ELECTION DISTRICTS, POSSIBLE HARASSMENT BY 
ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS, AND GOZ REFUSAL TO ACCREDIT 
OBSERVERS (WHICH WOULD PROHIBIT THEM FROM GOING WITHIN 
100 METERS OF ANY POLLING PLACE).  ELECTION OBSERVERS 
DESIGNATED TO OBSERVE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL 
LIKELY ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT OBSTACLES SUCH AS FREQUENT 
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CHANGES AND DELIBERATE CONFUSION OVER ACCREDITATION AND 
OBSERVATION RULES, GOZ REFUSAL TO ACCREDIT UNTIL THE 
LAST MINUTE, AND HIGH GOVERNMENT FEES.  ONCE IN COUNTRY, 
THEY MAY BE TURNED AWAY AT POLLING PLACES DESPITE 
ACCREDITATION OR MAY ENCOUNTER HARASSMENT BY ZANU-PF 
SUPPORTERS. 
 
D.  (C) WE HAVE NO INDICATION THAT THE MOVEMENT FOR 
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PLANS TO INFLUENCE THE REPORTING 
OF CAMPAIGN OBSERVERS OR ELECTION MONITORS, ALTHOUGH IT 
IS CERTAINLY IN THE PARTY'S INTEREST TO EXAGGERATE 
REPORTS OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION. 
 
2.  (C) COMMENT: ALTHOUGH THE GOZ HAS INFORMED US OF ITS 
INTENTION TO ALLOW ELECTION OBSERVERS, THERE IS NO 
UNDERSTANDING WHAT THE TERMS OF REFERENCE OF THESE 
"OBSERVERS" MIGHT BE NOR WHETHER THE GOZ DRAWS A CLEAR 
DISTINCTION BETWEEN "OBSERVERS" AND "MONITORS."  IN ANY 
CASE, WE STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT FOR POLICY REASONS WE 
MUST TEST THE LIMITS THAT THE GOZ AND ZANU-PF MIGHT TRY 
TO IMPOSE ON OUTSIDE MONITORS AS THE ONLY POTENTIALLY 
CREDIBLE WAY TO DETERMINE THE DEGREE OF FAIRNESS AND 
TRANSPARENCY OF THE UPCOMING ELECTION.  END COMMENT. 
 
ROTH 
 
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