US embassy cable - 04KINSHASA1340

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001340 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CG 
SUBJECT: NORTH AND SOUTH KIVU CONTINUE MOSTLY CALM 
 
 
Classified By: PolCouns MSanderson, reasons 1.5 (B) and (D). 
 
1. (C)  Summary:  Recent shifts in Congolese military 
deployments bringing these forces closer to Minova and Goma 
seem to have lent impetus to ongoing negotiations with rebel 
commander Nkunda, who now says that he is willing to go into 
exile if a recipient country can be found. Initial press 
reports that civilians were "fleeing" Goma due to Nkunda's 
purported arrival apparently were overstated, as the NGO 
community reports that only some families with relations in 
Bukavu have gone to that city. All the eastern military 
regional commanders, with the exception of Obed from N. Kivu, 
are in Kinshasa for meetings at the Ministry of Defense, and 
expect to meet with President Kabila this evening.  It seems 
likely that they have covered the battle plan, suggesting 
that a military operation could begin shortly if the Nkunda 
talks fail.  End Summary. 
 
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Talking With The Enemy 
---------------------- 
 
2. (C)  Both N. Kivu governor Eugene Serufuli and S. Kivu 
governor Augustin Bulahimu told PolCouns July 19 that 
negotiations with rebel general Nkunda have taken on a new 
life, with Nkunda apparently now insisting on his willingness 
to go into exile if an appropriate site can be found. 
Bulahimu said he believes this new interest in negotiating is 
due to the movement over the weekend of some FADRC forces 
closer to Minova, where Nkunda is based.  Serufuli said that 
he personally had already spoken twice on July 19 with RCD VP 
Azarias Ruberwa, who, Serufuli said, is working closely with 
the Presidency to try to find an acceptable peaceful end to 
the existing stalemate.  (Comment:  We heard from other 
sources that Belgian efforts to convince the South Africans 
to take Nkunda and fellow rebel Mutebusi have failed.  South 
Africa was the most likely exile site, and indeed, we have 
not heard that Nkunda is actually willing to go anywhere 
else.  End Comment.) 
 
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Preparing the Military Option 
----------------------------- 
 
3. (C)  Monuc Bukavu confirmed that a mixed brigade (composed 
of MLC, GSSP and Mai Mai elements) moved up from Bukavu to 
the very edge of the military district, near Minova, on 
Friday evening, and speculated that this movement was 
intended as a "final warning" to Nkunda and others.  Contrary 
to rumors, however, the FADRC forces in Beni and Kindu have 
not yet begun mobilizing for action, and most of the FADRC 
forces in S. Kivu are still in Bukavu.  All the eastern 
regional military commanders (with the exception of N. Kivu 
commander Obed who was invited but declined to attend) are 
currently in Kinshasa, attending briefings at the MOD and 
awaiting a meeting with President Kabila.  (Note:  The 
Presidential meeting could take place this evening.  End 
Note.)  S. Kivu commander Mabe is planning to remain in 
Kinshasa until Friday, July 23.  (Comment:  MLC General 
Bahume, who was sent to Bukavu to help coordinate the 
military movement, is also in Kinshasa for these meetings but 
reportedly will return to Bukavu tomorrow or Wednesday.  End 
Comment.) 
 
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Civilian Movements 
------------------ 
 
4. (C)  Following press reports that hundreds of civilians 
were fleeing Goma in fear following Nkunda's threat to attack 
the city, we checked with Monuc and NGO sources, who report 
that while some families who have relatives in Bukavu are 
traveling to Bukavu, there is no mass exodus from the city. 
This was confirmed by both Kivus governors (the S. Kivu 
governor is in Goma negotiating the return of Banyamulenge 
refugees who fled there during the fighting in Bukavu). 
Bulahimu, in fact, is hopeful that sometime this week a 
couple of hundred Banyamulenge displaced from their homes 
will return to Bukavu under his personal protection.  He also 
said that his RCD deputy, Thomas Nanzamatarata, who had 
previously refused to take up his duties, will also accompany 
him back to Bukavu today.  (Comment"  This would be a 
positive step, as it would signal that Nanzamatarata had 
dropped some or all of his demands, such as the immediate 
suspension of military commander Mabe.  End Comment.) 
Serufuli cautioned PolCouns, however, that the Rwandaphone 
community in N. Kivu is feeling "threatened" by the approach 
of Mabe's troops and by rumors that the FADRC troops in Beni 
and Kindu soon could move toward Goma.  Serufuli pointed to 
the dubious reputation of Mabe's troops as cause for concern 
(note: some of Mabe's men allegedly killed Munyamulenge 
civilians in Bukavu before the fighting broke out there), and 
said that although he is doing his best to calm the 
situation, there could be a significant IDP fallout if the 
government troops move any closer to Kalehe or if fighting 
breaks out. 
 
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Comment 
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5. (C)  Events underway for the last few weeks seem now to be 
converging.  The meeting of the regional military commanders 
suggests that the long-delayed military action could begin 
soon, possibly even this weekend, if the talks with Nkunda 
fail, as they seem destined to do.  N. Kivu commander Obed's 
refusal to come to Kinshasa sends a bad signal, at best, and 
at worst could flag his decision to oppose the advance 
through N. Kivu of the FADRC troops.  Doing so would, of 
course, effectively cast his lot with the rebels and, by 
extension, would also place Serufuli in the same camp. This 
could provoke the worst-case scenario in which the government 
forces do indeed attack Goma, with all the attendant 
possibilities for disaster which we already have considered. 
We will continue to monitor the situation closely in an 
attempt to determine the most likely governmental course of 
action. 
SCOTT