US embassy cable - 01ABUJA2026

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002026 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2011 
TAGS: KDEM, PGOV, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: THE 2002-2003 ELECTIONS -- THE "BIG 
ENCHILADA" 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter; Reason 1.5 (d). 
 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: Joe Baxter, Nigeria Country Director for the 
International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES), called 
on Ambassador Jeter on August 6 to discuss the 2002 local 
government (LG) elections and the national elections in 2003. 
 Baxter also discussed the National Identity Card and Voter 
Identity Card projects, and the work and political 
independence of the Nigerian Independent National Election 
Commission (INEC).  According to Baxter, the next six months 
will be critical in terms of voter registration, party 
registration and the passage of the new election law.  Baxter 
emphasized that Nigeria's international partners, including 
the U.S., can play a critical role in ensuring fair elections 
free of violence by making clear their expectations for the 
elections.  Traditional and religious leaders also can play a 
key role in keeping election violence to a minimum.  Baxter 
expressed a desire for NGOs and civil society to play an 
active, rather than a solely observational, role in the 
election process.  The Mission has begun to hold regular 
meetings with other "friends of Nigeria" to prepare for the 
upcoming elections, and to design a plan to play an actively 
supportive role in the development of this absolutely 
critical piece in Nigeria's consolidation of its democracy, 
including the establishment of a Mission Elections Working 
Group, chaired by the Ambassador.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
2. (U) On August 6, Joe Baxter, the Director of IFES, called 
on Ambassador Jeter to provide an update on IFES work. 
PolMilOff (notetaker) and USAID Democracy and Governance 
Advisor were also in attendance. 
 
 
================= 
IDENTITY PROBLEMS 
================= 
 
 
3. (C) According to Baxter, President Obasanjo's decision to 
select the French SAGEM consortium for the National Identity 
Card project posed difficulty for the upcoming elections. 
INEC had, with IFES endorsement, requested OMR (Optical Mark 
Recognition) technology for voter registration cards (SAGEM's 
technology, Intelligent Character Recognition (ICR), is more 
liable to mistakes and therefore is a slower process of data 
input).  Had the President selected a consortium using OMR 
technology, the process of producing voter registration 
cards, as well as national identity cards, would have held 
out the hope of having a computerized voter register for the 
2002 local government elections.  However, with SAGEM getting 
the nod, and the attendant delay in SAGEM's inability to 
bring the equipment until January or February, the 2002 local 
government elections would likely go forward with handwritten 
registers and temporary voter cards, both recipes for fraud. 
Baxter opined that the best way to prevent fraud was to have 
high voter registration and turn-out.  However, with SAGEM 
planning only 60,000 registration stations (vice the 120,000 
identified in the original call for bids), it will be 
difficult for many people living in the North and rural areas 
to register.  Thus, Northerners in particular may see this as 
an attempt to reduce their voter participation.  Baxter said 
that this was why INEC was seeking government approval to go 
it alone for the 2002 local government elections, using 
120,000 registration stations and hand-written rolls. 
 
 
============================================= == 
INDEPENDENT NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION (INEC) 
============================================= == 
 
 
4. (C) INEC's credibility has fallen in the eyes of many 
Nigerians.  Many see INEC in the pocket of the PDP (the INEC 
Chairman and other INEC officials are PDP members), but 
according to Baxter the Chairman is not "a PDP stalwart." 
INEC has proposed an election law to the National Assembly, a 
modified version of which will probably be passed this fall. 
The proposed law will raise the bar for registration of 
parties above the requirements established by the 
constitution, a position that reinforces perceptions that the 
INEC is under the influence of the Executive, and thus not 
"independent."  Due to this and other assertions of INEC 
prerogatives, and INEC representatives' general lack of 
preparedness, INEC took a "beating" during the National 
Assembly hearings on the proposed law.  However, Baxter 
noted, this showed good oversight by the National Assembly, 
also a critical piece of the democratic process.  To regain 
its credibility, INEC needs to work even harder to prove it 
can and will conduct the elections efficiently and without 
bias. 
 
 
======================== 
ELECTIONS ON THE HORIZON 
======================== 
 
 
5. (C) Local government elections will take place in 2002 
(for a one year term if the proposed law is passed), and then 
national elections in 2003, which will include local, state 
and federal elections.  (COMMENT: INEC is responsible for 
voter registration in all elections, but the local government 
elections will be managed by independent state electoral 
commissions (ISECs).  ISECs are not seen as being prepared; 
however, aside from supporting more interaction between them 
and INEC and some very basic training, they are not a key 
target for assistance, since the ISECs may be superceded by 
INEC if the new law establishes a uniform date for local, 
state and federal elections in 2003.  END COMMENT.) 
 
 
6. (C) According to Baxter, the biggest threat to free and 
fair elections is violence and the zero-sum pursuit of 
office, which could include the purchasing of votes and abuse 
of state government owned and controlled media.  (COMMENT: 
State media is controlled directly by the governor. 
Moreover, politics in Nigeria is still dominated by money and 
personalities, not agendas or policy alternatives, so a 
winner-take-all attitude prevails, which may lead to the use 
of violence to manipulate outcomes. END COMMENT.)  Baxter 
stated that a culture of "no-tolerance" toward violence needs 
to be created.  Traditional and religious leaders can have 
the greatest influence in this area.  However, INEC is also 
beginning to develop a code of conduct for the parties, but 
there are still questions about its ability to apply 
sanctions against those who break the rules.  IFES has 
suggested to INEC that the INEC internal code of conduct be 
developed in concert with civil society groups to build 
buy-in to the code.  Internal party codes of conduct will 
also help.  IFES has also suggested INEC hold monthly 
meetings with political parties and the Inter-Party Advisory 
Committee to build confidence and to give them a voice in 
determining the rules of the game.  Moreover, Baxter opined, 
civil society will need to be heavily engaged in the full 
election process - monitoring should be seen as a broad 
process of observing voter registration, party nominations 
and campaigns, as well as voting.  Monitors should be 
prepared to act quickly to publicize infractions.  (COMMENT: 
Nigerian NGOs have also expressed the need for such a 
broadened definition of monitoring as well as for assistance, 
to achieve a sufficient level of preparedness to carry out 
these functions. END COMMENT) 
 
 
7. (C) Ambassador Jeter stated that it would be important to 
establish benchmarks for free and fair elections, and asked 
Baxter what role the Mission and other donors could play at 
this early stage in ensuring a free, fair and transparent 
election process.  Baxter concluded  that donors could have 
the greatest impact by making clear to the GON the 
expectation that elections will have to be peaceful, credible 
and adequately funded.  Moreover, donors could begin to speak 
publicly against election violence to shape public 
expectations.  This election would be the "big enchilada" for 
Nigeria, Baxter stated, and outside attention and assistance 
are critical. 
 
 
8. (SBU) Ambassador Jeter noted that the Mission would begin 
that same week to have internal meetings to plan for its role 
in the elections, and the Mission's Elections Working Group 
would meet on a scheduled basis throughout the election 
process.  Regular meetings of donors have already begun to 
turn their focus to elections.  Planning among the "friends 
of Nigeria" could also lead to a joint demarche about 
expectations for the elections.  Baxter was clearly 
supportive of these efforts. 
 
 
9. (C) COMMENT: Baxter's insight into the process leading to 
elections next year and in 2003 were instructive and useful. 
The local government elections in 2002 are likely to be a 
test case for the national elections the following year. 
Thus, efforts by "friends of Nigeria" to emphasize 
non-violence and the importance of free and fair elections in 
the first round will have a direct impact on the 2003 LG, 
State, National Assembly and Presidential polls.  However, 
free and fair elections are not enough; the process leading 
to the elections must be open and transparent as well. 
Embassy plans to use its Elections Working Group to design an 
effective Mission plan for elections. 
 
 
10. (U) COMMENT CONTINUED: USAID has provided assistance to 
IFES for the past two years, and this assistance is expected 
to continue through 2003.  END COMMENT. 
Jeter