US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2239

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002239 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
HQ USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
USAID DCHA/OTI FOR RPORTER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: DIVISIONS BETWEEN PROYECTO VENEZUELA AND CD 
 
 
Classified By: A/DCM ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR REASONS 1.4 (d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) The Coordinadora  Democratica in Carabobo is divided 
over the actions of Proyecto Venezuela, according to local 
party leaders who talked to PolOffs on July 8 and 9. Leaders 
of several parties complained that Proyecto Venezuela was not 
participating enthusiastically in the recall referendum 
campaign. They also claimed that Proyecto Venezuela President 
Henrique Salas Roemer is more interested in campaigning for 
the presidency than participating in the recall effort. 
Nonetheless, the local Coordinadora Democratica leaders 
predicted a win for the recall in Carabobo. Proyecto 
Venezuela National Assembly Deputy Pedro Diaz Blum agreed 
that Proyecto Venezuela is orienting its recall propaganda 
around an eventual Salas presidential run. End Summary. 
 
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Anger in the CD 
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2.  (C) Representatives from COPEI, Accion Democratica, 
Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS), and Movimiento Trabajo in 
Carabobo state complained about the lack of cooperation of 
Proyecto Venezuela in the recall referendum drive in talks 
with PolOffs July 8 and 9. Lucio Herrera, head of the 
Coordinadora Democratica in Carabobo, and regional head of 
COPEI, asserted that Proyecto Venezuela is not participating 
enthusiastically in the campaign. Not sending high level 
people to the Coordinadora Democratica meetings in Carabobo 
makes it impossible for Proyecto Venezuela to participate in 
Coordinadora decisions, he said. Herrera pointed out that 
Proyecto Venezuela has the most resources in the state, due 
to its long control of the state government. Herrera said 
parties such as Accion Democratica and Movimiento Trabajo are 
taking a strong line against Proyecto Venezuela for its 
failure to assume its responsibilities in Carabobo. Herrera 
said Proyecto Venezuela had failed to fulfill the 
responsibilities the Coordinadora gave it during the appeals 
process leaving many sites abandoned. He said that in the 
referendum, all parties would be involved in the running of 
all the electoral sites, in part to keep an eye on Proyecto 
Venezuela. 
 
3.  (C) Francisco Gonzalez and Francisco Bello, regional 
leaders of the Movimiento Trabajo repeated Herrera's 
complaints. Bello said the failure of Proyecto Venezuela to 
meet its responsibilities forced other parties to make up the 
difference, which put serious pressure on their finances. 
Gonzalez said Henrique Salas Roemer was running for President 
instead of supporting the referendum, in violation of the 
Coordinadora's strategy to make the referendum Chavez vs. 
Chavez. The local Accion Democratica leadership, and a local 
MAS leader also echoed the complaints. 
 
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Salas Responds 
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4.  (C) Salas told PolOffs that he did not believe the 
opposition could defeat Chavez in the referendum without an 
alternative candidate. Salas said he thinks there is only a 
20% chance Chavez would be defeated, and a 60% chance there 
would be no referendum or the result would not be recognized. 
Salas said Proyecto Venezuela had conducted a poll in one 
million households to see their receptivity to a presidential 
campaign by him. He reported only 25% rejection, leading him 
to believe the referendum will do better with a candidate. He 
said his success running Carabobo, and the need to move 
beyond Caracas to find a candidate, made him a logical 
choice. 
 
5.  (C) Proyecto Venezuela Deputy Pedro Diaz Blum said 
Proyecto Venezuela referendum propaganda would be 
presidential campaign material for Salas because the proposed 
 
primaries are one week after the referendum. Presuming that 
Miranda state Gov. Mendoza would be the prime candidate, Diaz 
Blum said he believed Salas would run if the Coordinadora did 
not agree to a primary election process to choose the 
candidate. Diaz said the Coordinadora's message to the poor, 
that they had to get rid of Chavez, was bound to fail. He 
said Chavez was the only person who had given poor people 
anything, and the opposition had to try to co-opt his 
programs, not take him on head on. He admitted that Salas' 
biggest problem was his difficult personality. 
 
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MVR POV 
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6.  (C) PolOffs spoke with MVR Regional Coordinator Felipe 
Medina July 8. Medina called Proyecto Venezuela a "state 
bureaucracy at the service of a personal dynasty." He said 
that Proyecto Venezuela's power in Carabobo could not be 
under-estimated, and that the opposition would be strong. He 
said he had never seen the "people" so enthusiastic, and said 
there was no way Chavez could lose the referendum. If he did 
lose, it would be fraud, which might lead to violence. There 
might also be violence if the opposition refused to recognize 
a Chavez victory, he said. 
 
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CNE Ready 
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7.  (C) Javier Armas, head of the National Electoral Council 
in Carabobo, told PolOffs that the timeline for getting the 
voting and fingerprint machines ready, closing the electoral 
rolls, and setting up the voting centers was tight, but that 
he thought everything would be ready. He reported that the 
new voting centers being set up are only for people who have 
never been registered, or who have asked to be moved. Other 
voting centers will be split into two or more centers, but 
they will be within blocks of each other. He said CANTV had 
wired the voting centers, though there was only one 
Smartmatic machine in Carabobo on July 9. He reported 84 
machines would arrive the week of July 12. 
 
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Comment 
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8.  (C) The dispute between Proyecto Venezuela and the 
Coordinadora Democratica does not appear to be a serious 
threat to the recall referendum in Carabobo. Salas and 
Proyecto Venezuela will work for the referendum, but for 
Salas it will be in his own manner, and for his own benefit 
as well. 
McFarland 
 
 
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      2004CARACA02239 - CONFIDENTIAL