US embassy cable - 04PARAMARIBO514

UNCLAS  PARAMARIBO 000514 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CAR -- MSEIBEL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, NS, DESI BOUTERSE 
SUBJECT: NEW POLL SHOWS INCREASING SUPPORT FOR FORMER 
PRESIDENT JULES WIJDENBOSCH, NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY 
 
REF: 03 PARAMARIBO 116 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  A poll taken of voters residing in Suriname's capital 
Paramaribo by a respected polling organization revealed the 
extent of voters' dissatisfaction with the ruling New Front 
coalition ahead of the upcoming May 2005 elections.  Poll 
results indicate that former President Jules Wijdenbosch 
(1996-2000) currently leads the Presidential pack (with 
35.7 percent of the votes) despite mass protests over his 
mismanagement of the economy which forced him to call for 
elections a year earlier than planned in 2000, a move that 
brought the current New Front government to power.  The 
National Democratic Party led by former military strongman 
Desi Bouterse emerged as the most popular party (with 18 
percent of the votes).  A significant number of voters 
(43.5%) remained uncommitted.  Both ruling coalition and 
opposition politicians found reason for optimism in the 
poll results.  End Summary. 
 
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RULING NEW FRONT COALITION DOWN IN POLLS 
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2.  Suriname's local media reported on July 5 and 6 the 
results of a poll conducted June 11 to 13 by the respected 
Institute for Development Oriented Studies (IDOS), which 
revealed that former President Jules Wijdenbosch (1996- 
2000) had captured the most votes ahead of the May 2005 
elections.  35.7 percent of a random sample of 350 voters 
residing in Paramaribo, the country's capital, expressed 
preference for Wijdenbosch despite the fact that 
Wijdenbosch's mismanagement of the country's economy 
spurred mass demonstrations by opposition groups and labor 
unions which forced him to call for elections a year 
earlier than planned, a move which brought the ruling New 
Front coalition to power in the 2000 elections.  25.3% and 
21.6% of respondents expressed their preference for former 
military strongman Desi Bouterse and for President Ronald 
Venetiaan, respectively. 
 
3.  The poll revealed that Bouterse's National Democratic 
Party (NDP) is the most popular political party in 
Paramaribo.  18% of respondents said that they would vote 
for NDP, an increase of 4.5% compared with a February IDOS 
poll.  The New Front coalition, which is made up of the 
National Party of Suriname, the Verenigde Hervormings 
Partij, the Suriname Labor Party, and Pertjaja Luhur, 
captured 18.8% of the votes, suffering a net loss of 3.4%. 
A1, a new coalition of four small parties, almost doubled 
its support with 4.9% of the voters while only 5.6% of 
respondents said that they would vote for Wijdenbosch's 
party, Democratic National Platform 2000 (DNP 2000). 
 
4.  A striking feature of the IDOS poll concerned the 
significant number of uncommitted and nonvoters. 
According to the poll, a total of 43.3 percent of 
Paramaribo's voters fell into this category: 35 percent 
were uncommitted and 8.2 percent were non-voters.  Based on 
these results, if the elections were held today in 
Paramaribo, the division of Paramaribo's 17 National 
Assembly seats would be as follows: Bouterse's NDP 4, the 
New Front coalition 3, and Wijdenbosch's DNP 2000 and A1 
each one seat, while non-committed voters would control 8 
seats. 
 
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REACTIONS 
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5.  In public statements, both coalition and opposition 
leaders acknowledged the importance of polls in developing 
an election strategy and attempted to put a positive spin 
on the poll results.  Paul Somohardjo, leader of the New 
Front coalition party Pertjaja Luhur (and former NF 
Minister of Social Affairs squeezed out in a sexual 
harassment scandal in February 2003), emphasized that the 
results have to be placed in the proper perspective by 
taking into account the limited polling area (Paramaribo), 
as well as other factors, such as the age group, ethnicity, 
and the address of respondents.  (See Reftel.)  For his 
part, former President Jules Wijdenbosch focused on the 
need to tap into the large number of uncommitted voters who 
he said would decide the elections.  He also declared that 
it is time to abandon the National Assembly's appointing 
the country's President after elections in favor of 
electing the president by popular vote.  Winston Jessurun, 
leader of the newly established coalition A1, expressed his 
 
 
pleasure with the doubling of voter support.  Jessurun 
vowed that A1, which is campaigning for a new draft 
constitution with a parliamentary system and proportional 
representation, would work harder to make itself more 
widely known to capture a significant share of the 
uncommitted voters. 
 
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COMMENT 
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6.  The IDOS poll results are yet another sign of existing 
dissatisfaction with the ruling New Front coalition. 
Voters remain unhappy chiefly with rising living costs, 
despite the country's projected 5 percent economic growth, 
the increased crime rate, and Venetiaan's perceived lack of 
charisma, along with his administration's slow-paced 
decision-making.  They see Wijdenbosch as a can-do, 
decisive politician and are willing to downplay his 
mismanagement of the economy and the widespread belief that 
his administration raised the bar on corruption.  The 
popularity of Wijdenbosch as a leader and of Bouterse's NDP 
in Paramaribo, where more than half of the population 
resides, is telling; it points to the battle that the New 
Front coalition must wage to capture enough National 
Assembly seats to form a government after the 2005 
elections.    END COMMENT. 
 
BARNES 
 
 
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