US embassy cable - 04KINSHASA1299

S E C R E T KINSHASA 001299 
 
SIPDIS 
 
ROME FOR EMBASSY VATICAN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6X6 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, CG, BE, VT 
SUBJECT: DEPARTING BELGIAN AMBASSADOR'S TOUR D'HORIZON WITH 
CHARGE 
 
 
Classified By: PolCouns MSanderson, reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C)  During TDY Charge Gerald Scott's July 9 courtesy call 
on outgoing Belgian Ambassador Renier Nyskens, Nyskens 
stressed the need to maintain cohesion within the 
International Committee to Assist the Transition (CIAT) as 
many senior members will be rotating this summer and some 
elements within (and without) the transition government could 
see this an opportunity to create daylight between CIAT 
members to advance their positions.  Most importantly, the 
international community must continue its proactive 
solidarity. 
 
2. (S)  Looking to the future, Nyskens mused that although 
several months ago President Kabila was widely considered the 
potential hands-down winner, if elections were held today he 
would be humiliated.  Indeed, he would be wise promptly to 
declare that he has no intention of running, lest his 
opponents begin to more actively exploit his four potentially 
crippling factors (age (only 33, he likely will be declared 
too young to run for office), association with some of the 
Kisangani massacre perpetrators, dubious parentage (the 
mother issue) and increasing corruption).  Taking Kabila out 
of the picture, however, leaves a vacuum and nature, 
particularly Congolese nature, abhors a vacuum.  A 
post-Kabila-candidacy DRC will encourage military aspirations 
to power (via coup) and will feed national instability such 
as we are already seeing in the East and as regional power 
players move to strengthen their positions.  Nyskens said 
that his Embassy has been studying the question of "if not 
Kabila, then who?" and has not been able to produce a single 
candidate who was popular, had the necessary military support 
and did not suffer from a reputation for debilitating 
corruption or other unfortunate history.  The MLC's Olivier 
Kamitatu is a possibility somewhere down the road -- he is 
popular, intelligent, capable, and not considered corrupt -- 
and Cleophas Kamitatu's generosity in officially recognizing 
and adopting the son of his wife and her Belgian chauffeur 
presumably eliminates the possibility that Kamitatu's 
parentage could be held against him, a la Kabila.  The 
danger, however, is that VP Bemba would have Kamitatu killed 
if he perceived him as a genuine threat to his position, so 
Kamitatu needs sheltering for a while.  Another possible 
candidate (but again in the future, not in this election) 
would be the MLC's Secretary General, Thomas Luhaka. 
 
3. (S)  Responding to Scott's reminiscences about actors in 
the Mobutu period, Nyskens noted that a number of Congo's 
former political power players have continued to agitate for 
a role in the transition -- and post-transition as well.  The 
Ambassador said the three we mentioned (Minister of 
Scientific Research Kamanda Wa Kamanda, former Prime Minister 
Kengo wa Dondo, and Monseignor Monsengwo) were generally 
deemed unacceptable by the Belgians -- though they might have 
some temporary role, well short of their aspirations. Of the 
three, Monsengwo is perhaps the most successful, having just 
been elected to head the Congolese Episcopal Conference, 
although Nyskens added that Monsengwo won this honor (for the 
third time) mostly because the Cardinal is almost completely 
crippled by debilitating diabetes.  Nyskens also said that 
the Vatican has made clear to Monsengwo that he should limit 
his grasping for a role, not least since the Church would be 
deeply embarrassed should Monsengwo's "second family" living 
in Belgium become public knowledge. 
 
4. (C)  Comment:  The Belgians remain perhaps the most astute 
and well-informed of all Congo watchers, and Nyskens, who has 
been particularly well connected, will be missed.  He has a 
penchant, however, for firm pronouncements on Congolese 
developments that are not always borne out. We share his 
basic assessment that Kabila has been weakened as a 
presidential candidate, but believe it is too soon to 
handicap the eventual electoral field.  Indeed, Nyskens's own 
comment that absent Kabila there are few viable and 
supportable options suggests that it is premature to write 
Kabila's political obituary.  Recent abortive coup attempts 
and even the trouble in the east could reflect a growing 
perception among Congolese power players that Kabila is 
weakening.  If so, we can expect more frequent and more 
serious tests of his authority in coming months. 
SCOTT