US embassy cable - 01HARARE2387

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002387 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: GRIGSBY STAFFDEL MEETS WITH MDC 
LEADERSHIP 
 
CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) ON AUGUST 6, SENATE STAFFDEL, LED BY GARRETT 
GRIGSBY, MET WITH THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE 
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PAGE 02        HARARE  02387  01 OF 02  101141Z 
(MDC) LEADERSHIP IN THEIR NEW DOWNTOWN HEADQUARTERS. 
MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI WAS ACCOMPANIED BY 
SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE, NATIONAL COORDINATOR 
 
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ISAAC MAPOSA, INCOMING ELECTION COORDINATOR NOMORE 
SIBANDA, PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS SECRETARY FORMAN FOTO, 
AND PRESIDENTIAL ASSISTANT GANDI MUDZINGWA.  CHARGE 
AUBREY HOOKS AND POLOFFS ACCOMPANIED STAFFDEL TO THE 
MEETING. 
 
THE SITUATION 
------------- 
 
2.  (C) AFTER INITIAL PLEASANTRIES, TSVANGIRAI OPENED BY 
SAYING THE CURRENT POLITICAL SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE IS 
"UNPRECEDENTED" AND THE COUNTRY IS SLIDING INTO 
DICTATORSHIP.  HE OUTLINED THE EVENTS LEADING TO THE 
FORMATION OF THE MDC AND THE GOVERNMENT'S HEAVY-HANDED 
RESPONSE IN ATTEMPTING TO SUPPRESS THE OPPOSITION.  EVEN 
AFTER THE MDC WON 57 OUT OF 120 ELECTED SEATS IN 
PARLIAMENT -- AN ELECTION IN WHICH THE MDC WAS 
SHORTCHANGED, HE ADDED -- THE GOVERNMENT STILL REFUSES 
TO DEAL WITH THE MDC AS A LEGITIMATE OPPOSITION PARTY. 
TSVANGIRAI ARGUED THAT THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL 
 
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ELECTION WILL BE THE MOST CRITICAL IN ZIMBABWE'S 
HISTORY.  A FREE AND FAIR ENVIRONMENT IS CRUCIAL TO ITS 
LEGITIMACY; IF THE ELECTION IS FRAUDULENT, ZIMBABWE 
COULD "GO OVER THE PRECIPICE." 
 
THE BILL 
-------- 
 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  02387  01 OF 02  101141Z 
3.  (C) ON THE ISSUE OF THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY AND 
ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACT (ZDERA), TSVANGIRAI AGREED WITH 
THE CONTEXT IN WHICH THE BILL HAS BEEN FORMULATED, BUT 
HE FEARED THAT IT WOULD BE "POLITICIZED AS A SANCTIONS 
BILL" BY THE GOVERNMENT.  HE SAID THAT THE MDC CANNOT 
TELL THE U.S. HOW TO DRAFT THE LEGISLATION, BUT OPINED 
THAT BROAD ECONOMIC SANCTIONS ARE "NOT AN OPTION" IN THE 
CURRENT DETERIORATING ECONOMY.  THE U.S. CONGRESS HAS 
"GIVEN HOPE TO ZIMBABWE," AND HAS FOCUSED MUCH 
INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION ON THE COUNTRY, WHICH IT NEEDS 
TO GO IN A NEW DIRECTION, HE REMARKED. 
 
INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS WILL BE CRUCIAL 
--------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) ON THE ISSUE OF SENDING INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS 
FOR NEXT YEAR'S ELECTION, THE MDC PRESIDENT SAID THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY MUST INSIST ON THEM, EVEN IF THE 
GOZ OBJECTS AND CREATES OBSTACLES TO THEIR ARRIVAL. 
ISAAC MAPOSA ADDED THAT THE U.S. SHOULD NOT TRY TO SEND 
NDI, IRI, OR OTHER NGOS AS OBSERVERS BECAUSE THEY WILL 
NOT BE ACCREDITED.  IT IS IMPORTANT THAT OFFICIAL 
REPRESENTATIVES OF THE USG, SUCH AS MEMBERS OF CONGRESS 
OR STATE DEPARTMENT EMPLOYEES, BE SENT AS THEY WILL BE 
ACCREDITED IN THE END.  ONLY ACCREDITED OBSERVERS CAN 
ENTER POLLING PLACES AND TRAVEL FREELY FROM PLACE TO 
PLACE, MAPOSA NOTED.  THEY SHOULD ALSO COME A FEW TIMES 
SEVERAL MONTHS AHEAD OF THE ELECTION BECAUSE THEY WILL 
NOT LIKELY SEE ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY ON THE 
POLLING DAYS.  EVEN A MONTH IN ADVANCE, THE CAMPAIGN 
WILL BASICALLY BE OVER.  THE MDC PRESIDENT REMARKED THAT 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  02387  01 OF 02  101141Z 
THE PRESENCE OF OBSERVERS BEFOREHAND WILL GIVE 
ZIMBABWEANS HOPE AND ENCOURAGE THEM TO GO OUT AND VOTE 
ON ELECTION DAY.  WHEN ASKED IF SOUTH AFRICA PLANNED TO 
SEND OBSERVERS, TSVANGIRAI THOUGHT IT WOULD.  SOUTH 
AFRICA SENT A PARLIAMENTARY OBSERVER MISSION FOR LAST 
YEAR'S ELECTIONS.  A NUMBER OF TRADE UNIONS AND NGOS 
FROM SOUTH AFRICA WENT AS WELL, BUT MAPOSA BELIEVED 
THESE WOULD BE REFUSED ACCREDITATION THIS TIME. 
 
5.  (C) TSVANGIRAI CONTINUED, SAYING ZIMBABWE ALSO NEEDS 
ASSISTANCE TO IMPROVE ITS ELECTORAL PROCESS, BECAUSE 
ANYTHING LESS THAN MAXIMUM EFFICIENCY IN THE PROCESS 
WILL ONLY AID THE RULING PARTY.  THE WEST SHOULD HELP IN 
ENSURING THAT THE 1.5 MILLION ZIMBABWEANS LIVING OUTSIDE 
THE COUNTRY ARE NOT DISENFRANCHISED AS THE GOZ IS 
ATTEMPTING TO DO.  IT'S NO SECRET THAT MOST OF THOSE WHO 
HAVE LEFT ZIMBABWE ARE NOT SUPPORTERS OF THE GOVERNMENT, 
AND IT IS IN THE GOZ'S INTEREST TO MAKE SURE THERE IS NO 
MECHANISM FOR THEM TO VOTE. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ6460 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02387  02 OF 02  101141Z 
ACTION H-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AF-00    DS-00    TEDE-00  SS-00    DSCC-00 
      SAS-00     /001W 
                  ------------------108420  101141Z /38 
R 101138Z AUG 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 9449 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002387 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: GRIGSBY STAFFDEL MEETS WITH MDC 
LEADERSHIP 
 
DON'T LET THE GOZ OFF THE HOOK 
------------------------------ 
 
6.  (C) WELSHMAN NCUBE OPINED THAT IN ITS DEALINGS WITH 
SOUTH AFRICA AND OTHER SADC STATES, THE U.S. SHOULD MAKE 
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PAGE 02        HARARE  02387  02 OF 02  101141Z 
CLEAR THAT IT WILL NOT BE "BUSINESS AS USUAL" WITH 
ZIMBABWE IF IT HOLDS A FRAUDULENT ELECTION.  IT MUST 
ALSO MAKE CLEAR THAT A COUP D'ETAT WILL NOT BE 
ACCEPTABLE, EITHER.  NCUBE STATED THAT ZANU-PF IS 
PREPARING TO GO TO WAR IF THE MDC WINS THE ELECTION, AND 
THAT THERE ARE MANY ZIMBABWEANS WHO WOULD RATHER STARVE 
THAN RISK GOING BACK TO WAR. 
 
SECURITY HELP 
------------- 
 
7.  (C) TSVANGIRAI STATED THAT THE MDC DOES NOT PLAN TO 
HOLD ANY MORE PUBLIC RALLIES UNTIL THE DATE OF THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS ANNOUNCED.  PARTICIPANTS WILL 
JUST BE TARGETS OF REGIME-SPONSORED VIOLENCE, HE 
LAMENTED.  AS FOR THE MDC'S OWN SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS, 
TSVANGIRAI NOTED THAT IT HAS ITS OWN MECHANISMS IN 
 
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PLACE, AND IT IS TRYING TO INCREASE THE QUALITY AND 
NUMBERS IN ITS SECURITY APPARATUS.  THE MDC SOMETIMES 
EVEN INFORMS THE POLICE OF ITS MOVEMENTS AND DEMANDS 
ESCORTS, GAMBLING THAT IT WILL GET THEM AT LEAST SOME OF 
THE TIME.  WHEN ASKED WHAT THE U.S. CAN DO TO HELP, 
MAPOSA STATED THAT THE U.S. MAY BE LIMITED BY ZIMBABWE'S 
RESTRICTIVE POLITICAL PARTIES FINANCE ACT, BUT AN 
ARMORED CAR FOR TSVANGIRAI IS ESSENTIAL, AND RADIOS, 
BULLET-PROOF VESTS, PRINTING MATERIALS, AND A SATELLITE 
COMMUNICATION PLATFORM ARE ALSO NEEDED.  GRIGSBY POINTED 
OUT THAT THERE IS A U.S. LAW THAT PERMITS SECURITY 
TRAINING FOR FOREIGN NATIONALS.  GRIGSBY SUGGESTED THAT 
THE MDC, EVEN THE RULING PARTY, COULD BENEFIT FROM SUCH 
TRAINING.  TSVANGIRAI APPEARED VERY RECEPTIVE TO THE 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  02387  02 OF 02  101141Z 
IDEA AND SAID HE WOULD BE IN TOUCH TO FIND OUT MORE 
ABOUT IT. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
8.  (C) THE MEETING WAS VERY CORDIAL AND TSVANGIRAI 
DELIVERED HIS POINTS IN A CONFIDENT AND REASONED MANNER, 
WITH AN EYE TOWARD ELICITING GREATER SUPPORT FROM THE 
U.S.  HIS DEPUTIES WERE ALSO WELL PREPARED WITH SPECIFIC 
IDEAS ON HOW THE U.S. COULD AID THE MDC IN ITS CAUSE. 
THE MDC IS CLEARLY MORE FOCUSED THAN IT WAS AT THE 
BEGINNING OF THE YEAR ON WHAT IS NEEDED TO OVERCOME 
PRESIDENT MUGABE'S TREMENDOUS ADVANTAGES AS INCUMBENT. 
END COMMENT. 
 
9.  (U) THIS CABLE WAS NOT CLEARED BY STAFFDEL BEFORE 
ITS DEPARTURE FROM HARARE. 
 
HOOKS 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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