US embassy cable - 04SANTODOMINGO4087

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SANTO DOMINGO 004087 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR AND WHA 
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON 
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA 
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION 
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH 
DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI; SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EFIN, DR 
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN TRANSITION #7: CONGRESS CONTINUES, 
DESPITE DISARRAY 
 
REF: SANTO DOMINGO 3358 
 
1. (SBU) This no. 7 in our series on the transition to a new 
presidential administration in the Dominican Republic: 
 
CONGRESS CONTINUES, DESPITE DISARRAY 
 
When President-elect Leonel Fernandez (PLD) takes office 
August 16, the present National Congress will be only halfway 
through its four-year term. The PRD -- although no longer the 
ruling party -- will continue to dominate both houses of 
Congress, with 29 of 32 senators and the largest block in the 
Chamber of Deputies (72 of 150; compared with the PLD's 42 
and the PRSC's 36). 
 
Will Fernandez and the PLD secure enough cooperation from 
rivals in Congress to pass urgently needed legislation, 
including especially the IMF-mandated fiscal reform package 
delivered July 12 to the Senate? 
 
The short answer from PLD contacts: "We had a slimmer 
representation in a PRD-dominated Congress from 1998-2000 
than now, and we succeeded in passing legislation."  For 
those two years the PLD had a single senator and 12 
representatives; now they have a single senator and 42 
representatives. 
 
The short answer from the PRD: "The country is in an economic 
crisis, and we will put aside partisan bickering and work 
together to forge consensus on fiscal reform and other 
measures that are in the national interest." 
 
Prospects for passing the tax reform package before July 27 
adjournment are moderately good. At lunch with Treasury Under 
Secretary John Taylor on July 10, Congressional leaders 
 
SIPDIS 
declined to make that promise, but they did expect to 
complete a full round of hearings this session. 
 
Beyond that single piece of vital legislation, prospects are 
much less certain.  Congressional cooperation with the 
executive will depend on house leaders to be chosen August 16 
for the next year.  House of Representatives president 
Alfredo Pacheco (PRD) is unchallenged for a second term and 
has the support of all three major parties.  He is a 
respected, thoughtful, and effective negotiator.  The 
situation in the Senate is more contentious. Current 
president Jesus "Chu" Vasquez (PRD), although well regarded 
in civil society for enhancing transparency, has lost the 
support of 20 of the 29 PRD senators -- enough to remove him 
as presiding officer on August 16.  He is likely to be 
replaced. 
 
Vasquez's PRD colleagues were "irritated" by his sensible, 
non-partisan handling of the "ley de lemas" proposal in 
February, when the PRD tried to alter the electoral law in 
support of President Mejia's re-election bid.  According to a 
PRD congressman, the Senators also disliked Vasquez's 
receptiveness to an audit of the GODR's accounting court 
("Camara de Cuentas") following revelations in May by another 
PRD senator of irregularities in the court's administration. 
In June a majority of PRD senators voted down the audit.  The 
court has received IDB assistance since 2001 to reform and 
modernize its procedures. 
 
Vasquez's successor will be 2001-2003 Senate president Andres 
Bautista, who now chairs the Senate trade committee. 
Bautista has a record of cooperation with the Embassy and is 
close to Mejia.  He was the only senator to attend the July 
10 lunch with Under Secretary Taylor, since most were on a 
trip to Taiwan.  Bautista's experience and prominence will be 
an asset in negotiations with the new PLD administration on 
its legislative proposals.  Even so, Bautista has a 
reputation among some PRD lawmakers as being very responsive 
to Mejia and his PPH faction.  The common wisdom is that 
Mejia designated Bautista so as to reinforce his own 
influence in preparation to oppose Fernandez. For now, most 
PRD senators appear ready to continue taking orders from 
Mejia. 
Forging consensus on Fernandez's proposals will depend on the 
dynamics of "cohabitation" -- and the dynamics between the 
PRD and PRSC, both in opposition.  Discipline could falter 
among PRD and PRSC legislators as their parties regroup from 
their poor showing in the presidential election.  When the 
PRD tried to choose its next whip (vocero) in the Chamber of 
Deputies July 7, one-fourth of the party's representatives -- 
including three other contenders for the job -- were absent. 
The PRD convention in November will provide the first full 
test for Mejia. Current Vice President Milagros Ortiz-Bosch 
heads the convention organizing committee; unsuccessful 
vice-presidential candidate Rafael "Fello" Subervi (PRD) 
leads the GODR's transition team. In his banishment, 
outspokenly anti-reelectionist former PRD president Hatuey De 
Camps retains some influence and media visibility.  All will 
try to loosen the grip of Mejia and his PPH faction. 
 
The PRSC is coming apart.  Reformistas who defected to 
support Fernandez include former Dominican vice presidents 
Jacinto Peynado and Carlos Morales Troncoso and former chief 
executive Donald Reid Cabral.  In early July they published a 
"communique to the nation" signed by the "Provisional 
Presidential Council" denouncing the current PRSC leaders as 
out of touch with the voters and the times.  They expressed 
their desire to present "specific proposals to ensure the 
frequent renewal of PRSC leadership" and "development of a 
modern democratic party."  They praised Fernandez for his 
campaign promise to form "a government of national unity." 
 
Other senior Reformistas including legislators and the 
Estrella group held a "day of unity and reflection" June 27, 
and some proposed a party assembly to select new leaders.  On 
July 9 the PRSC Executive Committee postponed the assembly 
until sometime after August 16, on the excuse of reorganizing 
before selecting delegates.  No one knows how many would show 
up at an assembly -- an existing outdated list shows several 
thousand.  No response to the defectors has been agreed. 
Veteran party president Rafael Bello Andino, amid a crescendo 
of criticism of his ineffectiveness, resigned July 11 -- but 
by a vote of 17 to 11, the Executive Committee refused to 
accept his resignation.  For now, Reformista legislators are 
a leaderless lot. 
 
2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell. 
 
3. (U) This report and others in our election and transition 
series can be read on the SIPRNET at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ index.cfm along 
with extensive other current material.a 
HERTELL