US embassy cable - 01HARARE2365

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002365 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/RA 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS-MANIGAULT 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZIER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/06 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: A ZAMBIAN TAKE ON ZIMBABWE SITUATION 
 
CLASSIFIED BY DCM ROBERT E. WHITEHEAD FOR REASONS 1.5 
(B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY.  DCM PAID A COURTESY CALL ON ZAMBIAN 
COUNTERPART BEN SHAWA ON AUGUST 9.  THE EXCHANGE WAS 
SURPRISINGLY FRANK AND PRODUCTIVE, WITH SHAWA 
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PAGE 02        HARARE  02365  01 OF 02  091356Z 
PROVIDING HIS TAKE ON ELECTION PROSPECTS, SADC 
ELECTORAL MONITORING, NDEBELE RUMBLINGS, ZDERA, AND 
THE IMPACT OF EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE ON ZAMBIA.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------ 
FREE AND FAIR NOT IN THE CARDS 
------------------------------ 
 
2.  (C) SHAWA EXPRESSED THE VIEW THAT FREE AND FAIR 
2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ARE HIGHLY UNLIKELY.  HE 
PREDICTED WIDESPREAD GOZ-SPONSORED VIOLENCE IN AN 
ATTEMPT TO INTIMIDATE WOULD-BE MDC VOTERS INTO EITHER 
VOTING ZANU-PF OR STAYING AWAY FROM THE POLLS 
ALTOGETHER.  THE MUGABE STRATEGY, HE CONTINUED, WAS TO 
ENGINEER AN ELECTORAL VICTORY, AT WHICH TIME HE 
PLANNED TO REIN IN THE WAR VETERANS AND LAUNCH A CHARM 
OFFENSIVE ON THE INTERNATIONAL STAGE TO REHABILITATE 
ZIMBABWE'S IMAGE AND IMPROVE ITS PROSPECTS FOR RENEWED 
ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE.  SHAWA DOUBTED THAT MUGABE COULD 
ACHIEVE THE LATTER AND WAS EQUALLY DUBIOUS ON THE 
SECOND POINT.  HE CONCLUDED THAT THE PERCEPTION OF A 
STOLEN ELECTION RISKED SPARKING SERIOUS OUTBREAKS IN 
URBAN AREAS, WHERE PEOPLE FEEL THAT THEY HAVE LITTLE 
TO LOSE AND ACTUALLY WELCOME FACE-OFFS WITH SECURITY 
FORCES. 
 
-------------------------------- 
TOOTHLESS SADC ELECTION MONITORS 
-------------------------------- 
 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  02365  01 OF 02  091356Z 
3.  (C) DCM ASKED IF SADC WOULD MOUNT AN ELECTION 
MONITORING EXERCISE AS IT HAD DONE FOR PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS.  SHAWA CONFIRMED THAT THIS WOULD CERTAINLY 
HAPPEN, ALTHOUGH NO PLAN HAD YET BEEN FINALIZED.  HE 
ADDED THAT THE GRZ WOULD PUSH FOR THIS OUTCOME, SINCE 
IT FAVORED THE "SOFT, TOOTHLESS" APPROACH OF SADC, A 
LA MBEKI, RATHER THAN MORE RIGOROUS INTERNATIONAL 
SCRUTINY.  HE PREDICTED THAT THE GOZ WOULD ORGANIZE A 
DIPLOMATIC OFFENSIVE TO ENSURE THAT OTHER SADC STATES 
STAYED IN LINE.  HE NOTED THAT THE MDC'S ATTEMPT TO 
ARRANGE TOP-LEVEL MEETINGS FOR TSVANGIRAI IN SADC 
CAPITALS HAD PROMPTED THE DISPATCH OF GOZ TEAMS TO 
PRESSURE WOULD-BE HOSTS ON THIS POINT.  A NUMBER OF 
SADC COUNTRIES HAD SUBSEQUENTLY DUCKED THE MEETINGS. 
IN ZAMBIA, TSVANGIRAI HAD BEEN SHUNTED OFF TO MMD 
HATCHET MAN MICHAEL SATA, WHOM SHAWA (PROTECT) TERMED 
"OUR (ZAMBIA'S) OWN WAR VET." 
 
----------------------------- 
HIGH-LEVEL NDEBELE DISCONTENT 
----------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) SHAWA SAID THAT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT RIFTS AT 
THE TOP OF ZANU-PF, AND THAT ONE OF THE MOST 
SIGNIFICANT CLEAVAGES RUNS ALONG ETHNIC LINES.  HE 
DESCRIBED A RECENT APPROACH BY MEMBERS OF THE KAFELA 
TRUST, WHICH HE DESCRIBED AS AN NDEBELE FOUNDATION. 
VICE PRESIDENT MSIKA, HOME AFFAIRS MINISTER NKOMO, AND 
MINISTER MOYO (HE DID NOT SPECIFY WHICH ONE) 
APPROACHED THE ZAMBIAN HIGH COMMISSION WITH A REQUEST 
TO SEND ARCHIVISTS AND CAMERAMEN TO ZAMBIA TO SEARCH 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  02365  01 OF 02  091356Z 
FREEDOM HOUSE AND MILITARY ARCHIVES FOR DOCUMENTS 
CHRONICLING ZIPRA'S ROLE IN THE LIBERATION STRUGGLE. 
THEY COMPLAINED THAT OFFICIAL GOZ CHRONICLES OF THE 
WAR EMPHASIZED THE CENTRAL ZANLA ROLE AND RELEGATED 
ZIPRA TO THE FOOTNOTES. 
 
5.  (C) SHAWA SAID THAT THE UNITY AGREEMENT WAS SHAKY 
AND POSITED THAT THE KAFELA TRUST INITIATIVE MIGHT BE 
A HARBINGER OF A MOVEMENT TO RECREATE A ZAPU 
ORGANIZATION AS OPPOSED TO THE ZAPU 2000 PARTY FORMED 
BEFORE THE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, THAT FAILED TO 
GARNER WIDESPREAD SUPPORT IN MATEBELELAND.  THE 
ZAMBIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER REQUESTED THAT THEY PUT 
THEIR REQUEST THROUGH OFFICIAL GOZ CHANNELS, TO AVOID 
ACCUSATIONS AFTER THE FACT THAT THE GRZ WAS PLAYING A 
DOUBLE GAME.  SHAWA ADDED IRONICALLY THAT WHATEVER THE 
OUTCOME OF THE INITIATIVE, THE GRZ WOULD ENSURE THAT 
NO ONE FROM A KAFELA TRUST DELEGATION WENT TO 
BAROTSELAND. 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3286 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  02365  02 OF 02  091357Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  USNW-00  DODE-00  DS-00 
      VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   VCE-00   DCP-01   NSAE-00  SSO-00 
      SS-00    DSCC-00  PRM-01   DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /004W 
                  ------------------0FC844  091357Z /38 
O 091357Z AUG 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9437 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002365 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF, AF/S, AND AF/RA 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS-MANIGAULT 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZIER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/06 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: A ZAMBIAN TAKE ON ZIMBABWE SITUATION 
 
ZDERA 
----- 
 
6.  (C) DCM NOTED BROAD LOCAL PRESS COVERAGE OF SENATE 
PASSAGE OF ZDERA AND ASKED SHAWA WHAT HIS ZAMBIAN 
INTERLOCUTORS WERE SAYING ABOUT THE BILL.  SHAWA 
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PAGE 02        HARARE  02365  02 OF 02  091357Z 
REPLIED THAT THE OVERWHELMING SENTIMENT AMONG THE 
LITERATE CLASS WAS THAT IF ZDERA HASTENED MUGABE'S 
DEPARTURE FROM THE SCENE, THEN THEY WERE FOR IT. 
ZANU-PF PROPAGANDA WAS MORE EFFECTIVE WITH THE LESS 
EDUCATED, HOWEVER, MANY OF WHOM TAKE AT FACE VALUE 
CLAIMS THAT THE LEGISLATION IS PART OF AN MDC PLOT TO 
ISOLATE AND IMPOVERISH THE COUNTRY. 
 
--------------------------------- 
ZAMBIA KEEPS ITS HEAD IN THE SAND 
--------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) DCM QUERIED SHAWA ABOUT THE EFFECTS ON ZAMBIA 
OF THE GROWING CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE.  SHAWA OBSERVED 
THAT THERE WAS LITTLE CONCERN IN LUSAKA THAT THE 
UNREST WOULD CROSS THE BORDER.  LAND IS NOT AN ISSUE 
IN ZAMBIA, RACIAL/ETHNIC CLEAVAGES RUN LESS DEEP, AND 
THE WAR VETERAN PHENOMENON IS NON-EXISTENT.  HE NOTED 
THAT THIS IS NOT THE CASE IN SOUTH AFRICA, WHERE THERE 
IS FERTILE SOIL FOR SIMILAR UNREST.  DCM POINTED OUT 
THAT WHILE ZAMBIA MAY NOT BE POLITICALLY VULNERABLE TO 
THE ZIMBABWE DISEASE, IT IS NOT IMMUNE TO AN ECONOMIC 
DOWNTURN IN A MAJOR TRADING PARTNER, POSSIBLE 
INTERRUPTION OF VITAL TRANSPORTATION LINKS, OR EVEN 
POTENTIAL REFUGEE FLOWS.  SHAWA REPEATED THAT THE GRZ 
IS NOT DEEPLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE EFFECTS OF THE 
CRISIS, INCLUDING REFUGEE FLOWS.  CLEAR-THINKING 
REFUGEES WOULD HEAD SOUTH, NOT NORTH. 
 
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COMMENT 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  02365  02 OF 02  091357Z 
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8.  (C) THERE WAS NOT MUCH SURPRISING HERE OTHER THAN 
EX-ZIPRA MEMBERS LOOKING TO SET THE HISTORICAL RECORD 
STRAIGHT.  WE CANNOT COMMENT ON SHAWA'S "ZAPU REBORN" 
THEORY, ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH CONSIDERING THE 
POSSIBILITY THAT NDEBELE MEMBERS OF ZANU-PF MIGHT BE 
EXAMINING THEIR OPTIONS.  SHAWA'S COMMENTS ON THE SADC 
ELECTION MONITORING MECHANISM WERE NOT ENCOURAGING. 
CONCERTED EFFORT IN ALL SADC CAPITALS TO COUNTER GOZ 
PRESSURE MAY BE ESSENTIAL TO PREVENT A SADC MONITORING 
EXERCISE FROM BECOMING A ZANU-PF RUBBER STAMP. 
 
HOOKS 
 
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