US embassy cable - 04LJUBLJANA653

UNCLAS  LJUBLJANA 000653 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/NCE 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, SI 
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA: NATIONAL ELECTIONS CALLED FOR 03 OCTOBER 
 
REF: A. LJUBLJANA 539 
 
     B. LJUBLJANA 547 
     C. LJUBLJANA 636 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
1.  (U) SUMMARY: Slovenian President Janez Drnovsek has 
called for National Assembly elections to be held on 03 
October.  Although the official electoral campaign starts on 
03 September, the deadline for registering official 
candidate lists is 08 September.  END SUMMARY 
 
CHOOSING THE DATE FOR THE ELECTION 
----------------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) Slovenian President Janez Drnovsek announced on 09 
July that National Assembly elections will be held on 03 
October.  The Law on Parliamentary Elections stipulates that 
the President of the Republic must call elections between 75 
and 135 days before the "expiration of four years since the 
first session of the previous parliament."  The Law also 
dictates that the elections must take place no more than two 
months, and no less than 15 days, before the date the 
previously elected National Assembly had its first session. 
Given these limitations, elections had to be scheduled 
between 29 August and 10 October. 
 
ELECTION CAMPAIGNING 
--------------------- 
 
3.  (U) According to law, campaigning for the National 
Assembly elections may not begin until one month prior to 
the election.  Therefore, campaigning will officially begin 
on 03 September. 
 
HOW THE DEPUTIES ARE ELECTED 
----------------------------- 
 
4.  (U) Elections to the Slovenian National Assembly operate 
on a proportional system.  The voters, divided 
geographically into eight electoral units, elect eleven 
deputies in each unit.  Additionally, the Hungarian and the 
Italian minorities each elect one representative for a total 
of 90 deputies.  A party must pass a four percent threshold 
nationally in order to get any seats in the National 
Assembly. 
 
5.  (U) Slovenian voters are offered party lists with the 
candidates from their geographic unit.  If a party passes 
the four percent threshold, the number of deputies it will 
send to the National Assembly from its list will be based on 
what percentage of the vote the party received.  [NOTE: 
While preferential voting, i.e. the ability of voters to 
choose a specific candidate on a party's list, did not occur 
in 2000, it did take place in the recent European 
Parliamentary elections (ref A and B).  It is not yet 
certain if preferential voting will occur in the 03 October 
parliamentary elections.  END NOTE.] 
 
COMMENT 
-------- 
 
6.  (SBU) In the 2000 elections, eight parties surpassed the 
minimum four percent threshold to obtain seats in the 
National Assembly.  Pundits believe that a similar number of 
parties are expected to take seats in the fall elections, 
albeit not necessarily the same parties that are currently 
represented.  We note, of course, that public opinion polls 
in Slovenia - especially those coordinated by the left-of- 
center media - have been less than reliable in the recent 
past and particularly in the lead up to the European 
Parliamentary elections.  Although it is too early to 
predict how specific parties will perform, many observers 
are skeptical of the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDS) 
ability to repeat its election 2000 success when it won the 
support of 36 percent of voters.  Indeed, if European 
Parliamentary elections are any indication (ref B), the 
ruling center-left coalition will be faced with a vigorous 
challenge from the center-right opposition parties.  Despite 
the ban on pre-September 3 electioneering, battle lines are 
already being drawn.  The drama surrounding former FoMin 
Rupel and the Assembly for the Republic (ref C) is evidence 
of this, as are recent public statements by the avowedly 
apolitical (but looking very political) former President 
Kucan from his perch atop Forum 21.  END COMMENT 
 
YOUNG 
 
 
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