US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO1158

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001158 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS; NSC FOR E.MILLARD 
PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CE, Elections 
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT'S ALLIANCE WINS MAJORITY IN SIX 
PROVINCIAL COUNCILS IN JULY 10 ELECTION 
 
REF: COLOMBO 1142 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead.  Reason 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  The President's alliance won control of all 
six provincial councils being contested during the July 10 
election, even defeating the Opposition party in its 
up-country stronghold.  The elections were characterized by 
unusually low voter turnout and there were only minimal 
reports of election violence.  There are no current plans to 
again attempt to hold elections for the north/east provincial 
council.  With the President's party now controlling all 
seven major provincial councils, the "people's mandate" may 
give the government more confidence to enact change.  End 
Summary. 
 
2.  (C) PRESIDENT'S ALLIANCE WINS PROVINCIAL COUNCILS:  Sri 
Lanka held Provincial Council (PC) elections in six of its 
eight provinces on July 10, with President Chandrika 
Kumaratunga's United National People's Alliance (UPFA) 
winning control of all six.  Going into the PC elections, the 
UPFA controlled five of the six provinces.  In the sixth 
council, which includes the up-country tea estate districts 
of Kandy and Nuwara Eliya, the UPFA won enough votes to gain 
control from the Opposition United National Party (UNP).  In 
addition to the July 10 wins, the UPFA also remains in 
control of the Northwestern Provincial Council following 
April 24 elections there.  The outcome of the elections have 
not been finalized because the Elections Commissioner is 
ailing and he is the only person authorized to award "bonus 
seats" to parties based on percentage of total votes 
received.  As there are only two bonus seats per council, it 
is unlikely that this will change the balance in any of the 
councils. 
 
3. (SBU) Seeing the win as an endorsement of her government, 
a July 12 statement quoted President Kumaratunga as saying 
"all political parties represented in Parliament should 
understand the reality of the people's mandate which clearly 
show the people's choice."  She appreciated the people's 
confidence in the government and pledged to "uphold it 
untarnished at all times." 
 
4. (SBU) LITTLE CHANGE IN BALANCE OF POWER:  While the UPFA 
can now claim the majority in seven of the eight councils, 
the balance of power is little altered from the composition 
of the councils' previous five-year terms.  In most of the 
provinces, the UPFA won roughly the same number of seats that 
its constituent parties -- the President's own Sri Lanka 
Freedom Party (SLFP) and Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna 
(JVP) -- held during the 1999-2004 term.  (The number of 
seats in a provincial council depends on the size of the 
population; most councils have between 30 and 50 seats, 
except for the 104-seat Western Provincial Council, which 
includes Colombo and it suburbs.)  Any UPFA gain combined 
with the one or two seats won by other small parties in each 
province, however, was at the expense of the UNP, who lost 
seats in all six provinces on July 10. 
 
5.  (SBU) SOME SRI LANKANS GO TO THE POLLS:  As predicted, 
the PC elections had surprisingly low voter turnout.  Less 
than 50 percent of Sri Lankans voted on July 10, in 
comparison with the more traditional 75 percent of voters who 
cast ballots for the April parliamentary elections.  (Local 
July 11 newspapers ran pictures of empty polling booths and 
idle elections workers.)  The July 10 PC elections were also 
characterized by a low level of election violence.  In a July 
12 statement, the Colombo-based NGO, Centre for Monitoring 
Election Violence (CMEV), said, "the trend identified in the 
April 2004 General Election of a low level of violence and 
malpractice has been sustained in these elections."  CMEV 
appealed to political parties and civil society, however, to 
ensure that the low voter turnout does not become a new trend. 
 
6.  (C) NORTH/EAST PROVINCE:  The eighth province, the 
North/East, has only held elections once the 1988 
constitutional amendment creating the PC system.  The 
province encompasses large areas controlled by the Liberation 
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).  Despite periodic attempts by 
the government to hold elections in the North/East, the LTTE 
has thwarted all GSL efforts.  Although there is a provincial 
council in place, Government Agents are the sole GSL 
representatives with any power in this region. 
 
7.  (C) COMMENT:  The UPFA's win in the PC elections may now 
embolden the government in its efforts to bring about change. 
 It is widely believed that many measures had been held off 
until after the elections.  With its fresh mandate from the 
people, the President may now focus more intently on her 
proposed constitutional changes.  On the economic front, the 
UPFA may decide its victory in the PC elections provides a 
measure of comfort, allowing some necessary belt-tightening, 
including raising prices on petroleum products and certain 
agricultural goods and inputs.  That said, the government 
still lacks a majority in the Parliament and will make 
achieving one a priority for the foreseeable future.  There 
is also renewed speculation that the up-country Ceylon 
Workers Congress, currently in the Opposition, may jump to 
the government side.  END COMMENT. 
LUNSTEAD