US embassy cable - 04WELLINGTON591

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000591 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/ANP 
NSC FOR GREEN, JONES 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/11/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, NZ 
SUBJECT: NZ OPPOSITION NATIONAL PARTY CONFERENCE - WHAT A 
DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES 
 
REF: A. WELLINGTON 539 (NATS BACK AWAY FROM PRE-ELECTION 
        CHANGE) 
     B. WELLINGTON 89 (OPPOSITION BLASTS RACIAL POLICIES) 
     C. 03 WELLINGTON 713 (STILL STRUGGLING OVER 
        LEADERSHIP) 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC COUNSELOR, 
TIMOTHY P. ZUNIGA-BROWN FOR REASONS 1.5(B, D) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  New Zealand's largest opposition party, 
National, held an up-beat, almost giddy, Annual Conference 
July 9-11.  Polling slightly ahead of the ruling Labour 
government, conference delegates expressed confidence in 
winning the 2005 election.  In contrast to the festive 
atmosphere, Nat Party leader Brash - a former Reserve Bank 
chief - cautioned conference delegates to avoid complacency. 
The National Conference studiously avoided any public 
discussion of NZ's anti-nuclear legislation; foreign policy 
and defense issues did not appear on the formal agenda. 
While National's standing in the polls (around 42 percent) 
has resulted in increased membership and a growing belief in 
the possibility of a 2005 win, National's leadership remains 
nervous.  End summary. 
 
Cohesion, Stability, Policy 
--------------------------- 
 
2. (C) New Zealand's largest opposition parliamentary party, 
National, held its Annual Conference in Auckland July 9-11. 
In sharp contrast to the 2003 conference (ref C), when 
National was polling at half of this year's level, the 
conference was attended by almost 600 enthusiastic delegates, 
who expressed confidence in winning the 2005 election.  A 
rock'n'roll version of the National Anthem, a rousing speech 
by controversial Auckland Mayor John Banks (a former National 
Party Minister), and a taped video appearance by Australian 
Prime Minister John Howard reflected this optimism. 
Pragmatically, the true focus of the agenda was on explaining 
the candidate selection process, policy development and 
campaign planning.  The agenda was carefully designed to 
display the Party cohesion -- which had been missing in the 
aftermath of the Nat's disastrous 2002 election.  The 
conference highlighted National's core policies and served as 
a showcase for up-and-coming talent from the pool of current 
MPs.  Associate Finance Minister John Key and Welfare 
Spokeswoman Katherine Rich were standouts, delivering strong 
speeches despite their relative newness to politics. 
Opposition leader Don Brash was in high demand, managing to 
appear not only at the speeches, but at coffees and 
breakfasts, eagerly searching out recommendations for ways to 
broaden the Party's appeal. 
 
Caution ) Danger Ahead 
---------------------- 
 
3. (C) In contrast to the festive atmosphere, the personally 
somber Brash - a former Reserve Bank head - delivered a "very 
sobering message," asking delegates to work doubly hard to 
avoid &looking back on a scrap-book of temporary polling 
successes.8  A Conference theme admonished Nat leaders to 
resist the urge to gloat and to focus on the rough campaign 
ahead.  National is polling in the mid-40 percent range - 
roughly parallel to the Labour Government.  Internal party 
polls show that policy issues yet to be raised by Don Brash 
in the lead up to 2005 elections (welfare, education, and 
economic development) were unlikely to give the Nats the kind 
of broad popular boost in the polls that followed Brash's 
recent speech on race on race relations (ref b).  In a shift 
from the policies pursued in the 2002 election, where 
National tried to appeal to center-left voters, the 
Conference hammered home the catchphrases of the center-right 
) all major policy speeches emphasized the importance of 
personal responsibility, the paramount importance of the 
nuclear family and the necessity of tax cuts and support for 
employers. 
 
Don't Rock the (Nuclear) Boat 
----------------------------- 
 
4. (C) The National Conference studiously avoided any public 
discussion of NZ's anti-nuclear legislation; foreign policy 
and defense issues did not appear on the formal agenda.  In a 
closed session on Party polling, Nat Party leaders pointed to 
a serious dip in public support for National's defense policy 
following the release of an internal party report (Creech 
Commission report) that recommended changing NZ's 
anti-nuclear legislation.  The polls rose following Brash's 
announcement (ref A) that any changes to the legislation 
would be taken to a referendum after the 2005 election.  A 
breakfast meeting billed as a discussion of the Creech 
Commission report was instead a broad discussion of reforms 
needed to improve the New Zealand Defence Force.  Nat Party 
staffers noted that the speaker had been asked to pull back 
from the nuke issue in fear that it could overshadow media 
coverage of the Conference. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
5. (C) National's rise in the polls from the 20s to the 40s 
has resulted in increased membership and a growing belief 
within the party that they just might win in 2005.  However, 
National's leadership remains nervous, wary that a single 
misstep or misread of public support could plunge the party 
back into the doldrums.  National's surge in the polls is 
largely due to Don Brash and his reputation as a political 
outsider.  Equally, National's caucus is largely 
inexperienced and its candidate talent pool is not very deep. 
 Still, National under Don Brash has transformed itself - at 
least for now - into a viable contender. 
Swindells