US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2203

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002203 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
    STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: "SI" RECALL CAMPAIGN MOBILIZES 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: A/DCM ABELARDO A. ARIAS, FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) VENEZUELA'S COORDINADORA DEMOCRATICA IS GEARING UP ITS 
CAMPAIGN FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL RECALL REFERENDUM, ORGANIZING 
ITS GET-OUT-THE-VOTE PROGRAMS THROUGH POLITICAL PARTIES AND 
CIVIL SOCIETY GROUPS.  KEY OPPOSITION FIGURES HAVE EMBARKED 
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL THROUGHOUT VENEZUELA, THOUGH STAYING 
"ON MESSAGE" WITH THE THEMES OF UNITY, UNEMPLOYMENT AND CRIME 
REMAINS A CHALLENGE, ACCORDING TO STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS 
DIRECTOR JUAN FERNANDEZ.  LACK OF CAMPAIGN FUNDS IS A 
PRINCIPAL IMPEDIMENT, WITH DONOR ENTHUSIASM CHILLY.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
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FOLLOW THE MONEY 
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2. (C) THE OFFICIAL CAMPAIGN PERIOD FOR THE RECALL REFERENDUM 
AGAINST PRESIDENT HUGO CHAVEZ BEGAN ON JULY 2.  AFTER TAKING 
NEARLY A MONTH TO ORGANIZE, THE OPPOSITION HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF 
STARTING TO CAMPAIGN, ALBEIT AT A LOWER PROFILE.  OPPOSITION 
    LEADER JUAN FERNANDEZ, THE COORDINADORA DEMOCRATICA'S (CD) 
STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR FOR THE RECALL REFERENDUM, 
TOLD POLOFF JULY 8 THAT SECURING FUNDING IS A CENTRAL 
PRIORITY FOR THE OPPOSITION.  FERNANDEZ SAID THE CAMPAIGN 
BUDGET CALLED FOR 8 BILLION BOLIVARS (ABOUT USD 2.9 MILLION 
AT THE INFORMAL EXCHANGE RATE), BUT ONLY 2.5 BILLION BOLIVARS 
(USD 890,000) HAD BEEN COLLECTED.  FERNANDEZ SAID TRADITIONAL 
DONORS FROM THE BUSINESS SECTOR HAVE BEEN RELUCTANT TO GIVE 
BECAUSE OF DOUBT WHETHER THE OPPOSITION CAN WIN THE 
REFERENDUM -- BASED ON THE GREENBERG POLL SHOWING THE RACE AT 
A 48-48 TIE.  FERNANDEZ SAID THEY HAD RECEIVED REPORTS THE 
GOV IS LEANING ON COMPANIES THAT HAVE TRADITIONALLY SUPPORTED 
THE REFERENDUM TO DISCOURAGE THEM FROM GIVING. 
 
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MOBILIZATION EFFORTS UNDERWAY 
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3. (C) FERNANDEZ SAID THE GET-OUT-THE-VOTE PROGRAMS ARE WELL 
UNDERWAY.  POLITICAL PARTIES AND CIVIL SOCIETY GROUPS ARE 
WORKING AT THE GRASSROOTS FOR VOLUNTEERS TO REACH OUT TO 
POTENTIAL VOTERS.  THE CD IS ORGANIZING A TRANSPORTATION 
PROGRAM ("OPERATION KANGAROO") AND INFORMATION CENTERS 
(PROVIDING LEGAL AND LOGISTICAL AID) TO COVER THE VOTING 
CENTERS ON AUGUST 15.  VOLUNTEERS ARE BEING GIVEN TEN VOTERS 
TO CONTACT AND ASSURE THEIR VOTE FOR THE REFERENDUM. 
FERNANDEZ SAID THE NGO SUMATE WAS INSTRUMENTAL IN DEVELOPING 
THE DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION ON THE VOTERS FOR THE 
MOBILIZATION EFFORT.  THE CD'S REFERENDUM EXECUTIVE 
COORDINATOR, ENRIQUE NAIME, TOLD A/DCM JULY 7 THAT THE CD 
WOULD EXPLOIT THE INFRASTRUCTURE ("CUEVAS DEL  GUACHARO) THAT 
    THEY HAD DEVELOPED FOR THE APPEALS PROCESS. 
 
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MESSAGE BETTER, BUT DISCIPLINE A PROBLEM 
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4. (C) FERNANDEZ SAID THE CD WILL EMPHASIZE SOCIAL UNITY, 
JOBS, AND CRIME AS THEIR KEY THEMES.  HE CONCEDED THERE ARE 
STILL TOO MANY VOICES SPEAKING ON BEHALF OF THE OPPOSITION, 
AND HE DOES NOT SEE IT PRACTICAL TO SILENCE MOST OF THEM. 
FERNANDEZ IS TRYING TO KEEP THE SPEAKERS ON THE SAME PAGE BY 
PRODUCING A DAILY MESSAGE EMPHASIZING THE THREE CENTRAL 
THEMES AND OTHER POLITICAL MESSAGES.  FERNANDEZ SAID THERE IS 
A RIGOROUS CAMPAIGN SCHEDULE FOR KEY LEADERS.  FERNANDEZ ALSO 
COORDINATES SPEAKERS AND THEMES FOR TELEVISION AND RADIO NEWS 
COMMENTARY PROGRAMS.  HE NOTED THAT THE OPPOSITION PLANS 
RELEASE ITS "NATIONAL CONSENSUS PLAN" ON JULY 9. 
 
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CAMPAIGN MATERIALS SCARCE, BUT COMING 
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5. (C) FERNANDEZ SAID THE CD HAS BEEN SLOW TO GET CAMPAIGN 
 
CARACAS 00002203  002 OF 002 
 
D THAT POSTER AND PAMPHLET 
DESIGN WAS FINISHED, AND THE DEMAND FROM VOLUNTEERS IS GREAT. 
 CD ADVISORS CONFIRMED THE FINANCE CRUNCH TO POLCOUNS JULY 7, 
NOTING THEY HAD TO SCALE BACK PRINT RUNS AND ASK FOR CREDIT 
FROM THE PRINTERS.  FERNANDEZ SAID ON JULY 8 THEY HAD REACHED 
AN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPANY TO DO ALL OF THEIR PRINTING FOR 
THE REFERENDUM. 
 
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MEDIA CAMPAIGN SOLID, BUT LIMITED BY RULES 
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6. (C) FERNANDEZ SAID RADIO AND TELEVISION ADS ARE ALREADY 
RUNNING ON PRIVATE MEDIA OUTLETS.  HE SAID RADIO AND 
TELEVISION ARE THE OPPOSITION'S PRINCIPAL METHOD FOR REACHING 
POORER NEIGHBORHOODS.  THE ADS WILL KEY ON THE VOTER'S RIGHT 
TO CHOOSE, USING TESTIMONIALS FROM, FOR EXAMPLE, A POOR 
UNEMPLOYED PERSON HOPING A CHANGE WILL IMPROVE THE ECONOMY. 
FERNANDEZ SAID THE NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL'S (CNE) 
PUBLICITY RULES ARE A HANDICAP FOR THE OPPOSITION, LIMITING 
THEM TO JUST THREE MINUTES PER TELEVISION STATION PER DAY. 
THE CNE RULES PERMIT PRO-CHAVEZ ADS TO RUN ON PRIVATE MEDIA 
AS WELL, WHICH COVERS 95 PERCENT OF THE AUDIENCE.  FERNANDEZ 
SAID HIS "EQUAL TIME" ON STATE TELEVISION, WITH JUST FIVE 
    PERCENT OF THE AUDIENCE, WAS NOT A FAIR EXCHANGE.  HE ALSO 
COMPLAINED THAT CHAVEZ'S "CADENA" BROADCASTS, WHICH PRE-EMPT 
ALL PRIVATE RADIO AND TELEVISION, CONTINUE ALMOST DAILY, AND 
DO NOT REFRAIN FROM POLITICAL MESSAGES AS THE RULES 
STIPULATE. 
 
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COMMENT 
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7. (C) FERNANDEZ BELIEVES THE OPPOSITION'S CAMPAIGN IS 
BUILDING MOMENTUM SLOWLY AND WILL PEAK IN THE DAYS JUST 
BEFORE THE AUGUST 15 REFERENDUM.  WE SEE SIGNS THAT THE 
OPPOSITION IS INDEED WORKING.  THE OPPOSITION HISTORICALLY IS 
BEST AT MOBILIZING PEOPLE, SOMETHING THAT IS HARD TO OBSERVE 
OR MEASURE UNTIL ELECTION DAY. 
MCFARLAND 
 
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      2004CARACA02203 - CONFIDENTIAL