US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS2931

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002931 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2014 
TAGS: PREL, EAID, IZ, AF, HA, BM, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: COMMISSION PERSPECTIVE ON JULY 12 GAERC 
 
REF: A. A) STATE 147536 (NOTAL) 
 
     B. B) THE HAGUE 1700 
     C. C) SCHOFER-HOLTZAPPLE 7/8/04 EMAIL 
     D. D) USEU BRUSSELS 2897 (NOTAL) 
     E. E) REIDHEAD-KOSTELANCIK 7/7/04 EMAIL 
     F. F) LITZENBERGER-DIBBLE 7/8/04 EMAIL 
 
Classified By: PolOff Rick Holtzapple, Reasons 1.4 (B/D) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (C) Commission officials tell us the July 12 General 
Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC) meeting will 
not see many serious decisions before the EU FMs.  A featured 
item would be a lunch discussion with Iraqi PM Allawi (which 
we now understand may be cancelled or postponed).  The 
principal decision before the GAERC (as noted ref B) is how 
the EU will handle Burmese pariticipation at the October ASEM 
Summit. End Summary. 
 
IRAQ 
---- 
 
2. (SBU) PolOff delivered ref A points on July 8 to Nick 
Banner of External Relations Commissioner Patten's staff. 
Banner indicated ("it may take a while") the Commission was 
not likely to open an office in Baghdad soon, due to the 
security situation. He said Patten expected some Member 
States would push for the Commission to at least send an 
"exploratory mission" to Iraq, and that Patten was prepared 
to listen to the arguments for that.  Regarding Iraqi PM 
Allawi's planned lunch appearance, Banner said the EU FMs 
would be particularly interested to hear Allawi's plans for 
the national conference and the overall democratization 
process, as well as how the IIG planned to address the 
security situation.  (NOTE: Subsequent to our meeting, we now 
understand from The Hague - ref C - that Allawi may not make 
the GAERC.  It remains possible, but not at all certain, that 
the Iraqi FM may appear in his place.) 
 
AFGHANISTAN 
----------- 
 
3. (C) Banner said the EU aimed to "do what we can to give 
credibility" to the electoral process.  The Commission is 
working on plans for electoral technical assistance in Kabul. 
 But in the provinces, from the Commission's perspective, it 
would "just not be safe enough to send long term election 
observers."  Banner stressed this was the Commission's 
assessment regarding an EU mission; it is not meant to 
prejudge what the OSCE would decide to do.  He commented that 
at least some EU member states were likely to push for an 
OSCE mission (Commission South Asia Director Julian Wilson 
has underscored - ref E - that while the EC's electoral 
support would be more limited than originally hoped due to 
security concerns, they had no intent to dissuade the OSCE or 
others from doing what they could.) 
 
BURMA/ASEM 
---------- 
 
4. (C) Banner commented that back in March, at the ASEM 
ministerial in Ireland, the EU had laid out its conditions 
for accepting full Burmese participation at the EU-ASEM 
Summit in Hanoi this October, including a credible structure 
(with NLD participation) for the national conference and 
release of Aung San Suu Kyi.  At the recent ARF meeting, the 
EU had been told by its Asian counterparts that ASEAN was 
prepared to accept an EU-ASEM Summit format where Burma would 
only attend at a much lower level than head of state or 
government.  The EU was now deliberating on whether it would 
accept such an arrangement, with some still holding out for a 
tougher line, refusing any Burmese participation until some 
positive moves are made by Rangoon -- but that would almost 
certainly mean cancellation of the Hanoi Summit.  Banner 
commented that one source of EU confusion on this issue was 
that the Dutch Presidency itself appeared divided on the 
proper course to recommend. 
 
NEW ITEMS: SUDAN, HAITI, ISRAEL; ENP DROPPED 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) Banner said that the GAERC might endorse some 
additional humanitarian assistance for the Darfur crisis in 
Sudan.  He did not have a figure, but per our discussions 
with other EU officials (Ref D), we believe it could be 40 
million euros.  The EU FMs will also discuss Haiti, with 
France pushing for the Commission to commit more assistance 
funds, something Banner said was unlikely in the immediate 
future.  A final GAERC item (added on July 8, also at French 
insistence) was the EU's response to a recent refusal by the 
Israeli government to receive the Quartet envoys (ref F). 
Banner said GAERC Conclusions regretting the Israeli stance 
were possible, but little more than that. 
6. (SBU) Banner also said that the European Neighborhood 
Policy (ENP) Action Plans had been dropped from the GAERC 
agenda, because the only one that was ready was with Moldova. 
 The Commmission preferred to postpone the discussion until 
an autumn GAERC, when it hoped to have ready additonal Action 
Plans with Jordan, Morocco, and possibly Ukraine, Israel and 
the Palestinian Authority. 
 
MINIMIZE CONSIDERED 
 
MCKINLEY