US embassy cable - 04LJUBLJANA636

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LJUBLJANA 000636 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
DEPT FOR EUR/NCE 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, SI 
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA: RESIGNATIONS AND REALIGNMENTS IN NATIONAL 
ASSEMBLY 
 
REF: A. LJUBLJANA 623 
 
         B. LJUBLJANA 600 
     C. LJUBLJANA 597 
     D. LJUBLJANA 547 
     E. LJUBLJANA 634 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
1.  (U) SUMMARY: OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST WEEK, THE 
SLOVENIAN NATIONAL ASSEMBLY HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF CHANGES. 
THE FORMER FOMIN DIMITRIJ RUPEL, WHO WAS DISMISSED ON 05 
JULY (REFS A, B, C AND E), HAS ALIGNED HIMSELF WITH THE 
OPPOSITION DEPUTY GROUP SLOVENIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY (SDS), 
WHICH HAS NOMINATED HIM FOR THE POST OF DEPUTY SPEAKER OF 
PARLIAMENT.  NATIONAL ASSEMBLY PRESIDENT BORUT PAHOR, OF 
UNITED LIST (ZLSD), RESIGNED HIS POSITION ON 07 JULY IN 
ORDER TO TAKE HIS SEAT IN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT (EP).  IN 
ADDITION TO PAHOR, THREE MORE MPS ARE SET TO RESIGN TO TAKE 
THEIR SEATS IN THE EP.  END SUMMARY. 
 
RUPEL ALIGNS WITH OPPOSITION 
------------------------------ 
 
2.  (U) IN THE SAME WEEK THAT HE WAS DISMISSED AS FOMIN BY 
PARLIAMENT AND LEFT THE RULING LDS (REFS A, B, C AND E), 
DIMITRIJ RUPEL HAS ALIGNED WITH THE OPPOSITION SLOVENIAN 
DEMOCRATS (SDS) WITHOUT FORMALLY JOINING THE PARTY.  SDS 
PRESIDENT AND FELLOW MP JANEZ JANSA STATED AT A PRESS 
CONFERENCE THAT SDS HAS WORKED WELL WITH RUPEL "MOST OF THE 
TIME," AND THAT "WE THINK THAT WE CAN COOPERATE WELL ALSO IN 
THE FUTURE."  [NOTE: COM AND DCM MET WITH RUPEL ON 08 JULY. 
PLEASE REFER TO REF E FOR MORE DETAILS.  END NOTE.] 

PARLIAMENT'S LEADERSHIP TO TAKE NEW SHAPE 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (U) THE PRESIDENT OF THE SLOVENIAN NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
BORUT PAHOR RESIGNED HIS POST ON 07 JULY TO GIVE HIS UNITED 
LIST (ZLSD) COLLEAGUES AND OTHER MPS AMPLE TIME TO ELECT A 
NEW PRESIDENT.  PAHOR WON A SEAT IN LAST MONTH'S EUROPEAN 
PARLIAMENTARY (EP) ELECTIONS.  SINCE THE POSTS OF MEP AND MP 
CANNOT BE OCCUPIED AT THE SAME TIME, PAHOR'S TERM IN OFFICE 
AS PRESIDENT OF THE PARLIAMENT WOULD HAVE ENDED WHEN HE 
JOINED THE EP LATER THIS MONTH.  PAHOR HAS HELD THE 
PRESIDENT'S CHAIR SINCE NOVEMBER 2000. DURING HIS TERM, HE 
HAS HELPED GUIDE THE PARLIAMENTARY PROCEDURES AND 
LEGISLATION WHICH ENABLED EU AND NATO ACCESSION.  PAHOR AND 
HIS PARTY HAVE NOMINATED ZLSD MP FERI HORVAT AS NEW 
PRESIDENT OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY.  [NOTE: ACCORDING TO THE 
COALITION AGREEMENT, ZLSD HAS THE RIGHT TO THE POSITION OF 
PRESIDENT OF PARLIAMENT.]  ALTHOUGH NATIONAL ELECTIONS WILL 
BE HELD IN THE FALL, THE NEW PRESIDENT WILL HAVE THE 
DEMANDING TASK OF PREPARING THE FIRST SESSION OF THE NEW 
PARLIAMENT.  THE PRESIDENT OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY BECOMES 
PRESIDENT OF SLOVENIA IF THE INCUMBENT BECOMES 
INCAPACITATED, RESIGNS, OR DIES.  THE VOTE FOR THE NEW 
PRESIDENT OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY IS SCHEDULED FOR 12 JULY, 
BY SECRET BALLOT. ELECTION REQUIRES AN ABSOLUTE MAJORITY 
(46) OF NATIONAL ASSEMBLY MEMBERS, AND MOST BELIEVE HORVAT 
WILL BE APPROVED. 
 
RUPEL AS DEPUTY SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT? 
--------------------------------------- 

4.  (U) ALTHOUGH RUPEL IS NOT AN OFFICIAL MEMBER OF SDS, THE 
PARTY ANNOUNCED ON 07 JULY THAT IT WOULD PROPOSE RUPEL FOR 
THE POST OF DEPUTY SPEAKER AFTER THE CURRENT HOLDER OF THE 
POSITION, SDS MP MIHA BREJC, RESIGNED ON 08 JULY TO BE AN 
MEP.  [NOTE: UNDER THE PARLIAMENTARY RULES OF PROCEDURE, THE 
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY HAS UP TO THREE DEPUTY SPEAKERS, ONE OF 
WHOM IS A MEMBER OF THE LARGEST OPPOSITION PARLIAMENTARY 
FACTION, I.E. SDS.  END NOTE.]  LDS, THE GOVERNING COALITION 
PARTY THAT RUPEL LEFT THIS WEEK, HAS YET TO COMMENT ON 
RUPEL'S NOMINATION SAYING THAT THEY WILL WAIT UNTIL IT 
BECOMES "OFFICIAL" FOLLOWING PROPER, PARLIAMENTARY 
PROCEDURE.  ZLSD HAS STATED THAT IT SEES RUPEL'S NOMINATION 
AS "A REWARD FOR RUPEL'S POLITICAL TRANSFER" AND WILL DO 
EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO KEEP RUPEL FROM THE POSITION.  THE 
SLOVENIAN NATIONALIST PARTY (SNS) STATED THAT IT WOULD NOT 
SUPPORT RUPEL WHILE NEW SLOVENIA (NSI) HAS STATED THAT IT 
WOULD SUPPORT HIM.  THE PENSIONER'S PARTY (DESUS) AND THE 
PEOPLE'S PARTY (SLS) HAVE YET TO GIVE A POSITION PUBLICLY. 
[COMMENT: SINCE DESUS IS ALSO A MEMBER OF THE GOVERNING 
COALITION, ONE CAN IMAGINE THAT IT WOULD ALSO VOTE AGAINST 
RUPEL.  END COMMENT].  RUPEL WILL ALSO HAVE TO OBTAIN 
 
LJUBLJANA 00000636  002 OF 002 
 
 GIVEN THE GREAT RESISTANCE 
TO HIS CANDIDACY, HIS SUCCESS IS CONSIDERABLY LESS CERTAIN 
THAN HORVAT'S. 
 
TWO MORE MPS RESIGN, REPLACEMENTS HAVE BEEN DETERMINED 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
5.  (U) IN ADDITION TO PAHOR AND BREJC, MPS JELKO KACIN 
(SDS) AND LOJZE PETERLE OF NEW SLOVENIA (NSI) MUST RESIGN IN 
ORDER TO TAKE THEIR SEATS IN THE EP.  ALL FOUR MPS ARE VERY 
INFLUENTIAL IN THEIR PARTIES, IN THE SLOVENIAN POLITICAL 
SYSTEM, AND IN PARLIAMENT.  HOWEVER, SINCE THEY WILL ONLY 
MISS THE SESSION NEEDED TO OFFICIALLY REPLACE THEM, THERE IS 
LITTLE LIKELIHOOD THAT THEIR ABSENCES WILL HAVE MUCH EFFECT 
ON THE LEGISLATIVE PROCESS BEFORE THE FALL ELECTIONS. 
 
THE REPLACEMENTS 
----------------- 
 
6.  (U) THE FOLLOWING ARE SHORT BIOGRAPHIES FOR FERI HORVAT, 
NOMINATED FOR PRESIDENT OF PARLIAMENT, AND FOR THE FOUR MPS 
REPLACING THOSE WHO WON SEATS IN THE EP. 
 
--FERI HORVAT HAS BEEN AN ZLSD MP IN THE SLOVENIAN NATIONAL 
ASSEMBLY SINCE 1992.  PRIOR TO THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY, HE WAS 
THE GENERAL MANAGER OF RADENSKA, A THERMAL WATER COMPANY; A 
MEMBER OF THE MANAGING BOARD OF LJUBLJANSKA BANKA; AND WAS A 
MEMBER OF THE GOVERNMENT OF THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA IN CHARGE 
OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS AND TOURISM.  HE HAS A 
BA IN ECONOMICS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF LJUBLJANA AND IS 62 
YEARS OLD. 

-- BREDA PECAN (ZLSD) IS THE MAYOR OF DOMZALE AND IMPORTANT 
MEMBER OF THE ZLSD WOMAN'S FORUM.  PECAN WILL FILL PAHOR'S 
SEAT. 
 
-- DARJA LAVTIZAR BEBLER IS THE FORMER SLOVENIAN AMBASSADOR 
TO THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE IN STRASBURG AND A MEMBER OF LDS. 
SHE WAS AN LDS MP FROM 1992 UNTIL 1996.  [NOTE: HER HUSBAND 
IS ANTON BEBLER, AN IMPORTANT EMBASSY CONTACT, PRESIDENT OF 
THE ATLANTIC COUNCIL OF SLOVENIA AND FORMER SLOVENIAN 
AMBASSADOR TO THE UN IN GENEVA.  END NOTE.] BEBLER WILL BE 
FILLING JELKO KACIN'S SEAT. 
 
-- SINISA GERMOVSEK IS A MEMBER OF SDS AND WILL BE REPLACING 
MIHA BREJC. 
 
-- MATJAZ FALKNER IS A MEMBER OF NEW SLOVENIA (NSI).  HE 
WILL BE TAKING LOJZE PETERLE'S SEAT. 
 
5.  (SBU) COMMENT: WITH NATIONAL ELECTIONS SCHEDULED FOR THE 
FALL, ONE SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THE EVENTS CURRENTLY 
UNFOLDING COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO PRE-ELECTION POSITIONING. 
THE GOVERNING COALITION WAS DEALT A LOSS IN THE RECENT 
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS (REF D), AND THIS BLOW HAS 
CONTRIBUTED TO THE OPPOSITION'S EFFORTS TO GARNER MORE 
SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE FALL PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, WHILE THE 
RULING COALITION WORKS TO SECURE ITS BASE. 
 
6.  (SBU) ALTHOUGH PAHOR WILL TAKE HIS SEAT IN THE EP LATER 
THIS MONTH, HE HAS STATED THAT HE WILL ALSO RUN IN THE FALL 
ELECTIONS.  PAHOR IS A VERY POPULAR POLITICIAN AS EVIDENCED 
    BY HIS WINNING A SEAT IN THE EP, THROUGH PREFERENTIAL 
VOTING, DESPITE BEING AT THE BOTTOM OF HIS PARTY'S LIST (REF 
D).  ACCORDING TO CONVENTIONAL WISDOM, WITHOUT PAHOR AS A 
CANDIDATE, ZLSD WOULD MOST LIKELY NOT CROSS THE THRESHOLD 
FOR A PLACE IN PARLIAMENT IN THE FALL ELECTIONS.  ALTHOUGH 
PAHOR HAS BEEN DISTANCING HIMSELF FROM HIS PARTY, POSSIBLY 
PREPARING A BID FOR THE PRESIDENCY IN 2007, HIS PARTY 
UNDERSTANDS THAT IT NEEDS HIM AND WILL, AT LEAST FOR NOW, 
LIKELY IGNORE HIS ATTEMPTS TO REINVENT HIMSELF.  IF ZLSD IS 
ONCE AGAIN INVITED INTO THE GOVERNING COALITION AFTER THE 
FALL ELECTIONS, PAHOR COULD HAVE A MINISTERIAL POSITION 
OFFERED TO HIM.  WE THINK HE FAVORS THE FOREIGN MINISTRY. 
END COMMENT. 
 
YOUNG 
 
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