US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2183

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002183 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
HQ USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
USAID DCHA/OTI FOR RPORTER 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, VE 
SUBJECT: CONCERNS ABOUT PRESIDENTIAL RECALL TIMELINE 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: A/DCM ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR REASONS 1.4 (D) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C)  AS VENEZUELA APPROACHES THE AUGUST 15 PRESIDENTIAL 
RECALL VOTE, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS OVER POSSIBLE DELAYS IN THE 
RECALL PROCESS AND EXACTLY WHICH EVENT--THE RECALL VOTE OR 
THE RELEASE OF THE OFFICIAL RESULTS--MUST OCCUR BEFORE AUGUST 
19 TO PREVENT TRIGGERING ARTICLE 233 OF THE CONSTITUTION. 
ARTICLE 233 STATES THAT IF THE PRESIDENT IS REMOVED IN THE 
LAST TWO YEARS OF HIS TERM, HIS VICE PRESIDENT ASSUMES POWER. 
 WHILE SOME OPPOSITION LEADERS ARE CONFIDENT THAT SHOULD 
CHAVEZ LOSE THE RECALL VOTE, THE NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL 
(CNE) OR THE SUPREME COURT (TSJ) WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO DELAY 
THE PROCESS, NEITHER INSTITUTION IS LIKELY TO PROVIDE ANY 
CLARIFICATION IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
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DATE OF RECALL VERSUS DATE OF OFFICIAL RESULTS 
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2. (C) ACCORDING TO THE CNE'S TIMELINE, FOLLOWING THE 
    PRESIDENTIAL RECALL VOTE ON AUGUST 15, THE CNE HAS THREE DAYS 
TO TABULATE THE RESULTS AND WILL PUBLISH THEM BY SEPTEMBER 2. 
 SOME OPPOSITION MEMBERS ARE CONCERNED THAT IF CHAVEZ THINKS 
THAT HE IS LOSING THE REFERENDUM HE MAY ARGUE THAT IS NOT 
TECHNICALLY REMOVED UNTIL THE CNE PUBLISHES THE RESULTS.  A 
CONSTITUTIONAL EXPERT, TULIO ALVAREZ, STATED THAT IT IS NOT 
CLEARLY DEFINED IN THE CONSTITUTION IF THE PRESIDENT IS 
REVOKED ON THE DATE OF THE ELECTION OR WHEN THE CNE PUBLISHES 
THE OFFICIAL RESULTS.  IN ALVAREZ'S OPINION, CHAVEZ'S LAST 
TWO YEARS DO NOT START UNTIL JANUARY 10, 2005.  SO AS LONG AS 
THE RECALL IS HELD BEFORE JANUARY, HE ASSERTS, ARTICLE 233 
SHOULD NOT BE APPLIED. 
 
3.  (C) FELIPE MUJICA, PRESIDENT OF MOVIMIENTO AL SOCIALISMO 
(MAS) TOLD POLOFFS JUNE 17 THAT THE LAW IS ON THE 
OPPOSITION'S SIDE AND THAT HE IS CONFIDENT THAT SHOULD CHAVEZ 
LOSE THE RECALL VOTE THE GOVERNMENT WILL NOT TRY TO ARGUE 
THAT THERE SHOULD BE NO FOLLOW-ON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
BECAUSE THE PUBLICATION OF THE RESULTS WILL OCCUR AFTER 
AUGUST 19.  BORGES STATED ON JUNE 18 THAT THE VENEZUELAN 
PEOPLE WOULD NOT PERMIT SUCH A MOVE BY THE GOVERNMENT AND 
CLAIMED CHAVEZ WOULD DO NOT ATTEMPT SUCH A STRATEGY FOR FEAR 
OF LOSING LEGITIMACY IN THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. 
 
 
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NO SIGN FROM CNE OR TSJ 
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4. (C)  THE CNE HAS BEEN SILENT ON THE DEBATE AND THE TSJ 
VAGUE.  TSJ RULING OF JUNE 15 DETERMINED  THAT CHAVEZ THAT 
    CHAVEZ COULD RUN IN 2006 IF RECALLED, BUT DID NOT ANNOUNCE 
WHETHER CHAVEZ COULD RUN IN THE IMMEDIATE FOLLOW-ON ELECTION 
SHOULD HE BE RECALLED.  (NOTE: TSJ PRESIDENT RINCON PRIVATELY 
TOLD THE AMBASSADOR EARLIER THIS YEAR THAT IF CHAVEZ WERE 
RECALLED, HE WOULD PERMIT HIM TO RUN IN THE FOLLOW-ON 
ELECTION.)  COPEI DEPUTY CESAR PEREZ VIVAS HAS REQUESTED 
CLARIFICATION FROM THE TSJ, BUT THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT 
THE COURT WILL RESPOND. 
 
 
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SPECULATIONS AND CONSPIRACY THEORIES ABOUND 
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5. (C) THE RELATIVE SILENCE IN THE CNE AND TSJ HAS LED TO 
SPECULATIONS AND THEORIES.  BORGES TOLD POLOFFS THAT HE 
BELIEVED THAT THE TSJ DID NOT RULE ON WHETHER CHAVEZ COULD 
RUN IN A FOLLOW-ON ELECTION TO UNDERMINE OPPOSITION EFFORTS 
TO UNITE AROUND A SINGLE CANDIDATE.  BORGES SPECULATED THAT 
IF MEMBERS OF THE COORDINADORA DEMOCRATICA (CD) THOUGHT THAT 
CHAVEZ WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO RUN, THEN THE THERE WOULD BE LESS 
 
CARACAS 00002183  002 OF 002 
 
THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN 
ARTICLE 233 SHOULD BE INVOKED TO WIN THE RECALL BECAUSE 
NEITHER CHAVISTAS NOR OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS WANT VICE 
PRESIDENT RANGEL TO BECOME PRESIDENT. 
 
6. (C) ANOTHER RUMOR SWIRLING AROUND THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT 
IS THAT CHAVEZ IS WORKING WITH LEFTIST MEMBERS OF THE CD, 
PROBABLY MAS OR CAUSA R.  ACCORDING TO THIS THEORY, IF CHAVEZ 
LOSES THE RECALL, HE WOULD NEGOTIATE WITH THE OPPOSITION TO 
NAME A TRANSITIONAL PRESIDENT, AND THUS BYPASS THE 
CONSTITUTIONAL MECHANISM FOR SUCCESSION.  PRESIDENT OF CAUSA 
R, ANDRES VELASQUEZ, ON JUNE 22 TOLD POLOFFS A DIFFERENT 
VERSION OF THE RUMOR, STATING THAT HE HAD HEARD THAT CHAVEZ 
WAS GOING TO DELAY THE RECALL UNTIL AFTER AUGUST 19 AND 
NEGOTIATE WITH UNKNOWN ELEMENTS OF THE OPPOSITION ON WHO 
WOULD BE THE TRANSITIONAL PRESIDENT. 
 
 
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COMMENT 
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7. (C)  NEITHER THE CNE NOR THE TSJ ARE LIKELY TO PROVIDE ANY 
CLARIFICATION TO THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE PRESIDENTIAL 
RECALL PROCESS.  IT SERVES CHAVEZ'S INTERESTS TO KEEP THIS 
    POINT FUZZY UNTIL THE RESULTS OF THE REFERENDUM ARE KNOWN, 
AND WHEN CHAVEZ CAN JUDGE WHAT BEST SUITS HIS INTERESTS AND 
WHAT HE CAN AND CANNOT GET AWAY WITH. 
MCFARLAND 
 
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      2004CARACA02183 - CONFIDENTIAL