US embassy cable - 04AMMAN5508

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 005508 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2014 
TAGS: PREL, ECON, PTER, KPAL, ASEC, US, JO 
SUBJECT: THE DEPUTY SECRETARY'S VISIT TO JORDAN:  IRAQ, 
PEACE PROCESS, AND PENDING ASSISTANCE ISSUES 
 
REF: AMMAN 5467 
 
Classified By: DCM David Hale for reasons 1.5 (b) (d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  King Abdullah has sought to portray Jordan (and 
himself) as both a peacemaker and deal-maker in the Middle 
East.  The popular mood, however, is uneven:  the invasion of 
Iraq and perceived stronger pro-Israel tilt in U.S. policy 
have shaken Jordanian popular confidence in the moral 
underpinning of U.S. policy.  The GOJ is relieved at the 
choice of Iyad Allawi as Iraqi PM and will continue its 
strong support to rebuild Iraq, but has serious concerns 
about the security situation and the newly resurgent Shia 
population.  As always, the number one topic remains the 
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with the Jordanian mood 
swinging optimistic or pessimistic in tandem with movement on 
the peace process.  The King supports Gaza disengagement, but 
will ask that the U.S. continue to insist that it be part of 
the roadmap.  As he has done on the Hill, the King will ask 
for more military assistance to cover border security, 
explaining his needs in terms of newly emerging regional 
threats from Syria, Iraq, and looming Saudi instability.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
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GAZA DISENGAGEMENT OK IF PART OF THE ROADMAP 
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2.  (C)  The Palestinian-Israeli conflict remains at the top 
of the agenda for most Jordanians, who believe both that U.S. 
policy is tilted towards Israel and that only the U.S. can 
move the process toward resolution.  The King recognizes that 
Gaza disengagement could jump-start the process, but insists 
that it be part of the roadmap and not come at the expense of 
West Bank disengagement.  He is willing to train Palestinian 
security forces for the West Bank, but does not want to play 
as extensive a role there as Egypt is likely to play in Gaza. 
 The King will press for concrete U.S. steps to rein in 
Israeli military actions, particularly home demolitions, the 
tight closure of the West Bank and Gaza, and targeted 
killings.  There is no love lost for Arafat, who the King 
views as an obstacle to peace that he must nonetheless deal 
with. 
 
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CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR IRAQ 
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3.  (C)  The King has argued for some time that Iraq needs a 
strong leader, and believes that Iyad Allawi may be that man 
-- at least in the short term.  He remains concerned, 
however, over continuing instability and Iraqi Sunni 
political isolation, and believes the IIG and Iraqi military 
and security forces are not yet capable of restoring order. 
The King will continue his strong support of Iraq 
reconstruction, including police and military training. 
Military training continues on a small scale (with Air Force 
personnel and special forces only) until the Jordanians and 
Iraqis can come to an agreement on continuing the program. 
Police training continues apace, with 3,411 recruits trained 
so far.  However, the King (and recent congressional 
visitors) have expressed concern about the length of the 
eight-week course, the vetting of recruits, and follow-up on 
officers once they return to Iraq after graduation.  The 
current CPA-Jordan police training agreement expired June 30. 
 The King told the Ambassador on July 4 that he wanted a 
quick resolution on outstanding issues related to the text of 
a new agreement, and we expect to finalize it before you 
arrive. 
 
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IRAQI TRADE DEBT TO JORDAN 
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4.  (C)  Jordan has transferred to the Development Fund for 
Iraq (DFI) a total of USD 250 million of frozen Iraqi assets, 
more that any country except the U.S.  The GOJ has also been 
trying -- thus far unsuccessfully -- to get Iraqi officials 
to address USD 1.3 billion in Iraq commercial debt to the 
Central Bank of Jordan resulting from the financing of 
bilateral Jordan-Iraq trade in the 1980's and 1990's. 
 
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REFORM EFFORTS CHUG ALONG 
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5.  (C)  The King has led reform in Jordan and the region, as 
much out of his calculus that reform is vital for this poor 
and youth-heavy country as in response to USG pressure. 
While insisting that reform not be imposed from the outside, 
the King has embraced the Broader Middle East and North 
Africa (BMENA) initiative and attended the Sea Island Summit. 
 However, the King argues that G-8 and/or NATO intervention 
to support reform will have legitimacy for the Arab world 
only if it is not seen as an attack on Islam and if its 
geographic scope is limited to Arab countries.  He may also 
argue that the region will not embrace reform without 
parallel progress on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. 
 
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FMF REQUESTS AND BORDER SECURITY 
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6.  (S)  The King has recently asked USG and congressional 
visitors for USD 400 million in additional FMF assistance 
(for more detail on outstanding military assistance issues, 
see ref).  The King has pledged that this money would not go 
to purchase "more planes or tanks," but rather to protect 
Jordan from new regional threats.  The GOJ, for example, has 
intercepted an increasing number of shipments of weapons and 
explosives from Syria -- some linked to a Zarqawi/al-Qaeda 
plot to target the GOJ and U.S. Embassy.  There is also worry 
about instability in Iraq and the political rise of militant 
Shia groups in the south.  Finally, there is new concern over 
security in Saudi Arabia, and a fear that Saudi extremists -- 
pushed out by Saudi counter measures -- might try to slip 
into Jordan across the long, virtually unprotected border. 
 
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SECURITY CONCERNS UNDERPIN IT ALL 
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7.  (C)  Recent attacks in the region and a planned 
Zarqawi/al-Qaeda attack in Jordan thwarted this spring have 
highlighted Jordan's role -- and stake -- in the war on 
terrorism.  The threat of attack against American and GOJ 
interests remains high.  Jordanians are increasingly on edge 
now that the terrorists have demonstrated their willingness 
to target fellow Arabs and Muslims.  The King deserves our 
thanks for Jordan's continuing close cooperation with us 
against terrorism. 
 
Visit Embassy Amman's classified website at 
 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman/ 
 
or access the site through the State Department's SIPRNET 
home page. 
GNEHM