US embassy cable - 04ABUDHABI2194

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ABU DHABI 002194 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SECAF FOR DR ROCHE, CSAF FOR GENERALS JUMPER AND 
MOSELEY AND USCENTAF FOR LTG BUCHANAN 
STATE FOR D, PM, NEA/NGA, NEA/ARP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2014 
TAGS: PREL, MASS, MARR, MOPS, IZ, SA, PK, YM, TC 
SUBJECT: DEPUTY CENTCOM COMMANDER DISCUSSES 
REGIONAL SITUATION WITH UAE ARMED FORCES DEPUTY 
CHIEF OF STAFF 
 
Ref: (A) Abu Dhabi 2113 (B) Abu Dhabi 1157 
 
Classified by Richard A. Albright, Charge 
d'Affaires, a.i., reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (S) Summary: CENTCOM Deputy Commander 
Lieutenant General Lance Smith on June 28 
discussed security and the transition to 
sovereignty in Iraq, the deteriorating situation 
in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan's efforts to combat 
foreign fighters, and the UAE's request for an 
armed Predator, with UAE Armed Forces Deputy 
Chief of Staff Staff Major General Hamad Thani 
Al-Rumaithy in Abu Dhabi.  The two sides also 
agreed to meet later this summer to review UAE 
concerns with the proposed Proliferation Security 
Initiative (PSI) Shipboarding Agreement.  End 
Summary. 
 
2. (U) The Charge, USLO Deputy, and Polchief 
(notetaker) attended.  Hamad Thani was 
accompanied by GHQ Special Advisor Jack 
McGuinness. 
 
Iraq 
---- 
 
3. (S) In a broad review of developments in Iraq, 
Hamad Thani and Smith discussed the new Iraqi 
leadership's capabilities, ongoing security 
problems, and the influence of foreign fighters. 
Iraqis can be unpredictable, making it difficult 
for outsiders to know what will happen next, 
Hamad Thani said.  He agreed with Smith that the 
new Iraqi president and prime minister have 
strong qualities that should allow them to govern 
during the six-month interim period leading up to 
the elections.  Hamad Thani made the point that 
it will be important to see the positive impact 
of sovereign governance and decision-making on 
the Iraqi street.  "The world community wants to 
see something positive in Iraq," he said. 
 
4. (S) Smith said the US would appreciate the 
UAE's continued vocal support for the new Iraq. 
"We all have to make sure it's a successful 
government."   Smith said the US would like to 
see an Iraq that cooperates with its neighbors, 
and refrains from developing or using Weapons of 
Mass Destruction.  He noted that Iraq has 
considerable natural wealth, not to mention $18 
billion of U.S. aid.  "If they (Iraqis) can use 
that for reconstruction and get moving, we will 
leave and they will have a great future." 
 
5. (S) Hamad Thani thanked the U.S. for what it 
is doing in Iraq and said that all are looking 
forward to a stable region.  He said there had 
been seven wars fought in the region since 1948. 
The Arab-Israeli conflict had generated more 
instability, and he viewed that as the greatest 
source of the region's problems.  There is a need 
for a gradual transition period, he said.  Hamad 
Thani said it took him 10 years to fully accept 
that Israelis and Palestinians had to co-exist. 
"People are not sane.  We have had enough wars; 
we need to get the problem solved as the world is 
getting smaller."  He said there are many global 
issues, such as pollution, that require our 
attention as well. 
 
6. (S) Smith said that despite the unacceptable 
levels of violence, there were some encouraging 
developments on the security front.  The Iraqi 
forces are in the process of establishing a 
complete chain of command from the field to the 
CHOD.  Iraq was bringing back members of the old 
armed forces (those without blood on their hands) 
to lend their experience to the new security 
forces, changes that Hamad Thani supported. 
Smith cited the new Iraqi National Guard that 
will report to a chain of command that is 
entirely Iraqi. 
 
7. (S) Hamad Thani asked Smith what role he 
thought Moqtada Al-Sadr might play.  Smith 
responded that the coalition and the Iraqi 
Security Forces are working to neutralize Sadr's 
Militia and that we understand that Sadr will 
continue to create problems if he is not included 
in the political process.  Hamad Thani was 
skeptical that Sadr's militia would hand in their 
weapons.  Hamad Thani also inquired about whom 
might be supporting militant Mussab Al-Zarqawi. 
Smith replied that Zarqawi was his own man with 
his own network and ideas, likely not working 
directly for Osama bin Laden.  However, he has 
recruited followers of Ansar-al-Islam and has 
been able to count on the cooperation of former 
Saddam elements.  Zarqawi brings leadership to 
disparate elements in the region, Smith said. 
Smith said countering this insurgency is 
difficult because there are so many weapons in 
Iraq.  Hamad Thani stated that many of the 
weapons seized in the Straits of Hormuz had 
originated in Yemen. 
 
Saudi Arabia 
------------ 
 
8. (S) Hamad Thani said he shared Smith's concern 
about Saudi Arabia's battle against militant 
extremists.  The phenomenon, he said, will take 
time to uproot.   He was critical of the Saudis 
for not listening to warnings about extremist 
violence, and for acting late to prevent the 
violence.  Hamad Thani said the UAEG believes 
that if the Saudi regime were to collapse, the 
repercussions for the region would be enormous. 
Smith questioned whether Bahrain and Kuwait might 
be waiting too long to respond to their 
respective extremist problems, but Hamad Thani 
said he was not as worried about Bahrain. 
 
Pakistan 
-------- 
 
9. (S) Both sides agreed about the strategic 
importance of Pakistan in the region and 
acknowledged President Musharraf's uphill 
struggle to modernize Pakistani society.  Hamad 
Thani credited Pakistan's ability to stave off 
extremism to Musharraf's strong leadership, his 
background as a soldier, and the strong tradition 
of his armed forces.  He said that Western 
democracy will not work in Pakistan.  The 
Pakistanis need a strong leader, but not a 
criminal like Saddam Hussein.  Hamad Thani noted 
the difficulties Musharraf and the central 
government face in regions, such as Balushistan 
and the northwest region along the Pakistan- 
Afghanistan border, where they have no authority. 
Smith said Musharraf is having an effect 
combating foreign fighters like Al-Qaida in 
Pakistan, and added that Musharraf will continue 
engaging those fighters with or without the 
cooperation of Pakistan's tribal leaders. 
Predator 
-------- 
10. (S) Hamad Thani and Smith reviewed the 
discussion between Abu Dhabi Deputy Crown Prince 
and UAE Armed Forces Chief of Staff Shaykh 
Mohamed bin Zayed (MbZ) had had with Brigadier 
General Yaggi, Director of Regional Affairs for 
the Deputy Under Secretary of the Air Force for 
International Affairs, a day earlier (ref A) on 
the UAE's request for an armed Predator.  Hamad 
Thani said that MbZ had told him he was baffled 
that the USG could sell F-16 Block 60s to the UAE 
and refuse to release an armed Predator.  "This 
issue is disappointing to the UAE, though we 
understand the circumstances," he said.  He said 
the UAE is in the process of studying other UAV 
options, including producing its own (in 
partnership with foreign companies), although he 
acknowledged that the Predator's capability is 
superior.  Smith said he would convey the UAEG's 
views. 
 
PSI Shipboarding Agreement 
-------------------------- 
 
11. (C) Hamad Thani provided an update on the 
status of his government's review of a proposed 
PSI Shipboarding Agreement, which Post had raised 
with MbZ last April (ref B).  He said that a 
defense committee at the armed forces GHQ had 
been studying the agreement and had some 
concerns, but no objections.  One concern their 
military lawyers had was whether the U.S. could 
board a UAE-flagged vessel after a certain 
interval of time without obtaining the UAEG's 
approval in advance.  The Charge said the 
agreement addresses the consultation process. 
Hamad Thani acknowledged that when two countries 
reach the level of cooperation that the U.S. and 
the UAE enjoy, there are situations where it may 
be necessary to take immediate action when time 
is of the essence. 
 
12. (C) Hamad Thani said the Ministries of 
Justice and Foreign Affairs are reviewing the PSI 
agreement as well.  It was agreed that Post would 
follow up with the GHQ's point person on the PSI 
Shipboarding Agreement after he returns to the 
country in mid-July.  Hamad Thani said that MbZ 
had told him to do his best to make the agreement 
work.  "Eventually, all these agreements must 
comply with international law," he said.  It is 
important that the two sides work out the legal 
details. 
 
13. (U) This message was cleared by Lt Gen Smith. 
 
14. (U) Baghdad minimize considered. 
ALBRIGHT