US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2145

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002145 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
USAID DCHA/OTI FOR RPORTER 
 
    E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: MORE POLLING DATA ON RECALL REFERENDUM 
 
REF: CARACAS 2087 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR MARK WELLS FOR REASONS 1.4 (D 
) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  ON JUNE 23, GREENBERG, QUINLAN, ROSNER RESEARCH INC. 
(GQR) RELEASED THE RESULTS OF ITS NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION 
STUDY (REF).  COLLECTED AFTER THE REPAROS PROCESS, THE 
FIGURES SHOW THAT NATIONAL OPINION IS SPLIT 48-TO-48 ON 
WHETHER TO RECALL PRESIDENT CHAVEZ.  NATIONAL OPINION WAS 
FAVORABLE REGARDING CHAVEZ,S POLICIES TO ADDRESS POVERTY IN 
VENEZUELA, WITH 62% OF PARTICIPANTS AGREEING THAT THE CHAVEZ 
ADMINISTRATION IS HELPING THE POOR.  GQR DATA ALSO INDICATED 
THAT MIRANDA GOVERNOR ENRIQUE MENDOZA WAS THE MOST FAVORED 
OPPOSITION CANDIDATE FOR A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, BUT THAT 
MENDOZA WAS TRAILING IN AN ELECTION AGAINST CHAVEZ 52-TO-40. 
POLLING RESEARCH COMPANY MERCANALISIS RELEASED SIGNIFICANTLY 
DIFFERENT FIGURES THAT STATED 54% OF VENEZUELANS WERE IN 
FAVOR OF RECALLING CHAVEZ IN THE REFERENDUM AND 33% WERE 
OPPOSED.  MINISTER OF COMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION JESSE 
CHACON HAS ASSERTED THAT THE MERCANALISIS DATA ARE FALSE AND 
HAS TOUTED FIGURES BY THE POLLING COMPANY DATOS, WHICH SHOW 
CHAVEZ WINNING THE REFERENDUM 51-TO-39.  END SUMMARY. 

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THE GQR POLL: THE REFERENDUM AND APPROVAL RATING 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
2.  (SBU)  ON JUNE 23, GREENBERG, QUINLAN, ROSNER RESEARCH 
INC. (GQR) RELEASED THE RESULTS OF ITS NATIONAL PUBLIC 
OPINION STUDY.  GQR CONDUCTED ITS POLLING IN FOCUS GROUPS 
AFTER CHAVEZ AGREED TO CONVOKE THE REFERENDUM, BUT HAS NOT 
INDICATED HOW MANY PARTICIPANTS WERE INVOLVED.  THE GQR 
POLLING DATA SHOWED THAT NATIONAL OPINION IS SPLIT EVENLY 
48-TO-48 ON WHETHER TO RECALL PRESIDENT CHAVEZ.  GQR FIGURES 
ALSO INDICATE THAT CHAVEZ HAS A 53-TO-45 PERCENT APPROVAL 
RATING, BUT THAT NATIONAL OPINION IS MORE EVENLY DIVIDED OVER 
WHETHER OR NOT CHAVEZ IS LEADING VENEZUELA IN THE RIGHT 
DIRECTION, 42% APPROVAL TO 40% DISAPPROVAL. 
 
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THE GQR POLL: CHAVEZ AND THE POOR 
--------------------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU)  ON ISSUES REGARDING THE VENEZUELAN POOR, CHAVEZ 
RECEIVED SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER PUBLIC OPINION FIGURES. 
SIXTY-TWO PERCENT OF THOSE PARTICIPANTS POLLED BY GQR AGREED 
THAT THE CHAVEZ ADMINISTRATION IS HELPING THE POOR, WHILE 
ONLY 36% DISAGREED.  ADDITIONALLY, GQR FIGURES INDICATED 
CHAVEZ,S SOCIAL WELFARE MISSIONS HAVE 58-TO-38 PERCENT 
APPROVAL RATING.  WHEN THE GQR POLLING DATA ON THE RECALL 
REFERENDUM WAS BROKEN DOWN INTO FIVE INCOME GROUPS, THE TOP 
FOUR INCOME STRATA WERE IN FAVOR OF RECALLING CHAVEZ. 
HOWEVER, CHAVEZ WON IN THE LOWEST INCOME GROUP, 59 TO 38 
    PERCENT. 
 
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THE GQR POLL: MENDOZA AND THE OPPOSITION 
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4.  (SBU)  THE GQR POLLING DATA INCLUDES FIGURES FOR A 
POST-REFERENDUM PRIMARY FOR OPPOSITION CANDIDATES, WITH 
MIRANDA STATE GOVERNOR ENRIQUE MENDOZA LEADING WITH 40%, 
FOLLOWED BY PRIMERO JUSTICIA PARTY LEADER JULIO BORGES WITH 
24%.  IN ADDITION TO LEADING PRIMARY POLLING FIGURES, MENDOZA 
HAS A 52% APPROVAL RATING AND A 34% DISAPPROVAL RATING. 
HOWEVER, GQR FIGURES FOR A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION BETWEEN 
CHAVEZ AND MENDOZA SHOW THAT CHAVEZ HAS A COMFORTABLE LEAD AT 
52-TO-40. 
 
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OTHER POLLS 
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5.  (SBU)  OTHER COMPANIES HAVE RELEASED POLLING DATA WITH 
 
CARACAS 00002145  002 OF 002 
 
 ARE IN FAVOR OF RECALLING 
CHAVEZ AND 44% ARE OPPOSED.  FOR FIGURES RATING THE 
PRESIDENT'S PERFORMANCE, CHAVEZ DID NOT PERFORM AS WELL AS HE 
DID IN THE GQR POLL, WITH ONLY A 37% APPROVAL RATING. 
ADDITIONALLY, 52% PARTICIPANTS POLLED BY CONSULTORES 21 
INDICATED THAT, UNDER CHAVEZ, VENEZUELA WAS CURRENTLY HEADED 
IN THE WRONG DIRECTION.  CONSULTORES 21 CONDUCTED ITS POLLING 
AFTER THE REPAROS PROCESS AND HAD 20,000 PARTICIPANTS. 
 
6.  (U)  ON JUNE 27, MERCANALISIS RELEASED POLLING FIGURES 
THAT STATED 54% OF VENEZUELANS WERE IN FAVOR OF RECALLING 
CHAVEZ IN THE REFERENDUM AND 33% WERE OPPOSED.  MERCANALISIS 
FIGURES ALSO INDICATED THAT CHAVEZ HAS A 51-TO-42 PERCENT 
APPROVAL RATING.  MERCANALISIS CONDUCTED ITS POLLING AFTER 
THE REPAROS PROCESS AND INTERVIEWED 900 CITIZENS IN 
VENEZUELA'S FIVE LARGEST METROPOLITAN AREAS. 
 
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GOV REACTION 
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7.  (U)  MINISTER OF COMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION JESSE 
CHACON HAS PUBLICLY ASSERTED THAT THE POLLING DATA PRESENTED 
BY MERCANALISIS ARE FALSE AND CRITICIZED PRIVATE MEDIA 
OUTLETS FOR PUBLICIZING THEM.  CHACON CONTENDED THAT THE 
FIGURES PRESENTED BY THE POLLING RESEARCH COMPANIES DATOS AND 
    INDAGA, WHICH SHOW CHAVEZ WINNING THE REFERENDUM 51-TO-39 
PERCENT AND 51-TO-42 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY, REPRESENTED MORE 
TRUTHFUL DATA.  CHACON ALSO POINTED OUT THAT EVEN THE 
&FABRICATED8 MERCANALISIS FIGURES STILL SHOW THAT CHAVEZ 
HAS A POSITIVE APPROVAL RATING, WHICH HE TOUTED AS AN 
INDICATION THAT CHAVEZ WILL WIN THE REFERENDUM. 
 
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COMMENT 
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8.  (C)  THE POLLS DIFFER, BUT WE CAN SEE THAT CHAVEZ IS NOT 
AS BADLY WOUNDED BY THE CONVOCATION OF THE REFERENDUM AS THE 
OPPOSITION HAD HOPED.  THE SOCIOECONOMIC BREAK DOWN OF THE 
GQR REFERENDUM FIGURES IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE ALTHOUGH CHAVEZ 
IS ONLY FAVORED IN THE LOWEST INCOME GROUPING, HE STILL IS 
TIED IN THE OVERALL POLL.  OPPOSITION LEADERS HOPE THAT THERE 
IS SOME AMOUNT OF "FEAR FACTOR" IN THESE NUMBERS THAT 
PREVENTS ANTI-CHAVISTAS IN POOR AREAS FROM EXPRESSING THEIR 
SENTIMENTS.  ALTHOUGH THIS COULD HAVE MERIT, CHAVEZ'S CONCERN 
FOR THE POOR IS SEEN AS GENUINE AND HE STILL MAINTAINS A 
FAVORABLE OPINION RATING IN NEARLY ALL OF THE POLLING 
FIGURES.  THE SIMPLE FACT IS THAT THE OPPOSITION HAS A REAL 
HORSE RACE ON ITS HANDS AND NEEDS TO GET TO WORK. 
SHAPIRO 
 
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      2004CARACA02145 - CONFIDENTIAL