US embassy cable - 04AMMAN5397

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 005397 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2014 
TAGS: PREL, IZ, JO 
SUBJECT: IRAQIS IN JORDAN REACT POSITIVELY TO HANDOVER, BUT 
NOT READY TO GO HOME YET 
 
REF: AMMAN 5088 
 
Classified By: DCM David Hale for reasons 1.5 (b), (d). 
 
1. SUMMARY:  Iraqi contacts in Jordan see the transfer of 
sovereignty to the Iraq Interim Government (IIG) as a 
positive step toward a better Iraq.  They expect that the 
violence will continue in coming months, but subside as the 
IIG asserts its authority.  These contacts maintain that 
security is the biggest issue in Iraq, and that having 
trained police and military forces is crucial to restoring 
stability.  However, these Iraqis are convinced that the 
long-term keys are reconstruction and increased job 
opportunities.  They do not plan on returning any time soon, 
citing insecurity.  End Summary. 
 
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REACTION TO THE TRANSFER OF SOVEREIGNTY 
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2. (C) Our Iraqi contacts reacted positively--but with 
surprise--to the June 28 transfer of sovereignty.  The Iraqi 
Charge in Amman, Ma'an Barakat, said that he and the entire 
staff at the Mission were surprised and very pleased with the 
news.  (Comment:  On the separate issue of rumored new visa 
requirements, Barakat has not yet received any communication 
from the Iraq MFA providing visa instructions--see reftel.) 
Issam Chalabi, Iraqi businessman in Jordan and former Iraq 
Oil Minister, said that he was not surprised that the 
transfer occurred earlier than June 30 but was happy 
nonetheless.  Iraqi businessman Amin Zubeidi said it was a 
great move to surprise the insurgents.  He also cited the 
NATO agreement in principle to train Iraqi forces as 
important to establishing IIG credibility. 
 
3. (C) Despite their positive feelings about the transfer of 
sovereignty, these Iraqis say that they do not have any plans 
to visit Iraq soon.  They maintain that wealthy Iraqis are 
targeted for kidnapping and theft of property, and this fear 
is a major influence on any decision to risk travel into 
Iraq.  They suggest that the best way to help calm the 
security situation is for Iraqi police and NIA forces to 
coordinate efforts with the multi-national forces.  While 
expecting continued attacks, these contacts were hopeful that 
the situation would improve more as job opportunities 
increase and tangible results in the reconstruction process 
are felt. 
 
 
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SOVEREIGNTY OR ELECTIONS: WHICH IS MORE IMPORTANT? 
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4. (C) In recent conversations with our Iraqi contacts, there 
has been a consensus that sovereignty and a strong Iraqi 
government are more important than free elections at this 
time.  Most of our contacts do not believe that the planned 
January 2005 elections can be implemented properly. Iraqis, 
they claim, do not understand the meaning of democracy.  They 
believe it is more important to establish the credibility and 
authority of the IIG so that it can stem the violence. 
 
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IIG CREDIBILITY; THESE ARE GOOD GUYS 
------------------------------------ 
 
5. (C) Reaction to IIG leaders from our contacts has been 
favorable.  Our Iraqi contacts tend to characterize the IIG 
leadership as a "bunch of good guys", and they repeatedly say 
it was wise to involve the U.N. in the selection process. 
Our secular, business-oriented contacts, are happy that the 
leadership is not composed of religious leaders.  The current 
leadership, they feel, is well-placed to begin the process of 
restoring stability in Iraq and paving the way towards a 
democratically-elected government.  A group of Iraqi students 
who are participating in a U.S. exchange program spoke 
favorably of the new leaders as being well-known inside Iraq, 
in comparison to the unknown transition figures who preceded 
them. 
 
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COMMENT 
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6. (C) Our contacts favorably viewed the coalition's efforts 
to install a new government.  However, they are quick to 
criticize the coalition for poor security and bad 
unemployment in Iraq. 
 
7. (U) AMEMBASSY Baghdad minimize considered. 
 
Visit Embassy Amman's classified website at 
 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman/ 
or access the site through the State Department's SIPRNET 
home page. 
GNEHM