US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS2794

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 002794 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT:  EU LEADERS NOMINATE PORTUGUESE PM DURAO 
BARROSO AS COMMISSION PRESIDENT; SOLANA REAPPOINTED 
AS CFSP HIGH REP, LATER TO BE THE FIRST EU FM 
 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  EU leaders on June 29 nominated Portuguese Prime 
Minister Jose Manuel Durao Barroso as the next 
Commission President effective November 1.  The 
leaders also renewed the mandate of Javier Solana as 
Council SG/CFSP High Rep with a commitment to 
appoint him as the first EU Foreign Minister once 
the EU Constitutional Treaty is in place.  Barroso, 
whose nomination remains subject to confirmation by 
the European Parliament in a July 22 vote, said the 
allocation of portfolios in his team would be his 
"sole responsibility."  END SUMMARY. 
 
ONE NEW HEAD AND TWO REAPPOINTMENTS 
----------------------------------- 
 
2.  EU leaders smoothly agreed "by consensus" at a 
short meeting in Brussels the evening of June 29 to 
nominate Portuguese PM Jose Manuel Durao Barroso as 
the next Commission President to succeed Romano 
Prodi on November 1, 2004.  Barroso's confirmation 
remains subject to the approval of the European 
Parliament, which will pronounce (majority of EP 
membership) on July 22.  The EP is expected to 
endorse Barroso, a member of the conservative 
European People's Party (EPP) that will form the 
largest group in the newly elected EP.  However, 
other factions (Liberals, Socialists and Greens) 
will likely want to hear more from Barroso on his 
views on the EU and his approach to the job before 
deciding how to vote. 
 
3.  The leaders also reappointed Javier Solana as 
Council Secretary General/CFSP High Rep and Pierre 
de Boissieu as Deputy Secretary General of the 
Council as from October 18, 2004.  They issued a 
Declaration stating that Solana will be appointed 
Union Minister for Foreign Affairs "on the day of 
entry into force" of the Constitutional Treaty.  The 
implication, which was confirmed to us by a senior 
Council official, is that Solana will not/not join 
the Commission until that time.  Thus, double 
hatting (merging the current Solana and Patten jobs) 
is not anticipated.  Although the leaders invited 
the future President of the Commission and the SG/HR 
"to organize the working relations between them in a 
way that will ensure a smooth and efficient 
transition and to take the necessary measures to 
that end," a senior official privately told us that 
the Council and Commission have not done anything 
yet in that respect and that they have 18 months to 
fulfill this tasker.  In the meantime, it will be up 
to Barroso to decide how the RELEX functions will be 
fulfilled in his Commission. 
 
4.  The leaders also reappointed the Frenchman 
Pierre de Boissieu as Deputy Secretary-General of 
the Council, a function that entails the day-to-day 
management of the Council Secretariat and 
organization of work, with a footnote saying that de 
Boissieu will be appointed Secretary-General of the 
Council on the day of entry into force of the 
Constitution (when Solana becomes EU FM). 
 
INTRODUCING THE NEXT COMMISSION PRESIDENT 
----------------------------------------- 
 
5.  Barroso appeared at a joint press conference 
with a jubilant Irish PM/EU chair Ahern, Solana and 
Commission President Prodi.  The performance of Jose 
Manuel Barroso (as he invited the media to refer to 
him) was highly creditable, drawing from his 
linguistic and communication skills, a sense of 
humor, and marked by a sense of respect for the 
European Parliament and the prerogatives of his 
function as enshrined in the Treaty.  Addressing the 
press in his statement and the question period in 
Portuguese, French and English, Barroso emphasized 
that his nomination was made by consensus.  He 
stressed the need for a strong Commission that 
respects "all sensibilities in the European project" 
and insisted that "all conditions are there for such 
a project. 
 
6.  With the July 29 press reporting pressures on 
Barroso from France and Germany to secure top 
economic portfolios in his team, the nominee said he 
would be happy to listen to "suggestions" but 
insisted that the allocation of portfolios would be 
his "sole responsibility."  To make things clear, he 
referred to Treaty provisions concerning the role of 
the Commission President.  He encouraged colleagues 
to propose the best candidates and especially to 
propose women as candidates.  Pending his 
confirmation, he said he was simply not in a 
position to express any position nor to give any 
undertaking with respect to portfolios.  With 
respect to the EU and its operation, Barroso 
developed a motto of "fairness," highlighting the 
need for "balance" between big and small, rich and 
poor, the center and the periphery.  His concept of 
the Union was "based on the principle of solidarity" 
(read: financial transfers to poorer members). 
Barroso backed the Commission's proposal for the 
2007-2013 EU financial framework. 
 
NEXT STEPS 
---------- 
 
7.  Assuming Barroso passes the test of the European 
Parliament on July 22 (and we believe he will), the 
focus will turn to the formation of his team (one 
Commissioner per Member State).  The EU governments 
(excluding Portugal), in consultation with the 
President-designate, will each nominate the person 
they propose to appoint as member of the new 
Commission.  The Council will draw up a list of the 
24 designated Commissioners.  The President- 
designate will then announce the allocation of 
portfolios among the Commissioners-designate.  The 
EP will hold hearings of the proposed Commission 
members on September 27-October 1 and October 4-8. 
Following that, the President-designate and the 
other members of the Commission will be subject as a 
body to a confirmation vote by the EP (Parliament 
has no power to refuse individual members).  The EU 
Council will then formally appoint the President and 
the other members of the Commission.  This can 
happen by qualified majority. 
 
WHEN THE MUSIC STOPS: EXIT VITORINO 
----------------------------------- 
 
8.  The main victim of the leaders' choice of 
Barroso as Commission President will be current JHA 
Commissioner Vitorino, who cannot be reappointed to 
the Commission this fall as his country is only 
entitled to have one national in the team.  The 
current Spanish Commissioner, Joaquin Almunia, now 
holding responsibility for economic and monetary 
affairs, is expected to be reappointed.  However, as 
Member States will only be allowed to have one 
Commissioner each, Almunia would have to step down 
if/when Solana combines the job of Commission Vice- 
President and EU FM (not before 2006). 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
9.  Barroso's nomination was the result of a process 
of crossed vetoes of the leading candidates, leading 
to a desperate search for the candidate that would 
be acceptable to both the largest political group in 
the European Parliament and to all governments of 
the EU-25.  The deal ends two weeks of uncertainty, 
during whichsupporters and opponents of unofficial 
candidates were pitted against each other in a 
behind-the-scenes process in which views on the EU's 
future were not given primary consideration and 
exposure, fueling criticism on the lack of 
transparency of the nomination process. 
 
10.  Barroso is on the record as saying he is no 
visionary: "I'm a reformist, not a revolutionary, a 
centrist, not a free-market fundamentalist."  To 
judge from his initial comments, he can be expected 
to develop a vision of the EU based on strong, equal 
rights for Member States as well as well-funded EU 
policies to reduce internal disparities and enhance 
the EU's profile.  The new President will have to 
manage integration of the ten new Member States, and 
also prepare for the next wave of enlargement into 
the Western Balkans.  EU leaders are due to decide 
in December, just weeks after he takes office, 
whether to open accession talks with Turkey.  But 
drafting the Commission's opinion will not be his 
responsibility.  As for the organization of his 
team, Barroso may be expected to appoint up to five 
Vice-Presidents to run clusters of Commissioners in 
a more pyramidal management structure. 
 
11.  We defer to Embassy Lisbon for a fuller 
analysis of Barosso, and will be interested in any 
insights Lisbon might offer on key advisors likely 
to move with Barosso to Brussels.  Though presented 
as "largely unknown outside Portugal," Barroso is 
perceived in well-informed EU circles as a market- 
oriented reformer who imposed strict austerity 
measures on his country upon taking office in 2002 
after Portugal became in breach of EU rules on 
budget deficits.  He is seen here as a staunch 
defender of the EMU Stability and Growth Pact 
underpinning the euro.  In spite of his record at 
home, Barroso objects to capping EU spending (of 
which his country is a major beneficiary), which may 
put him on a collision course with major EU budget 
funders and net contributors (Germany, France, 
Netherlands, in particular).  He may soon have to 
guide his Commission through difficult choices 
between assisting the newcomers and preserving flows 
of EU structural aid to poorer members among the 
former EU-15, including his home country. 
 
12.  A supporter of stronger ties with the U.S. and 
promoter of a strong NATO, Barroso also wants bigger 
investment in the European military:  "Europe cannot 
be an economic elephant and a military pygmy," he 
once said.  "The transatlantic relationship must be 
revitalized.  This is...a task for political 
decision-makers on both sides of the ocean we 
share," Barroso said in a speech in October 2003. 
"Our planet will be much better if Europe and the 
United States work together and worse off if this 
doesn't happen." 
 
SCHNABEL