US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2123

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002123 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
HQ USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
USAID DCHA/OTI FOR RPORTER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION FINALLY LAUNCHES PRESIDENTIAL RECALL 
CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE 
 
REF: A. CARACAS 02037 
 
     B. CARACAS 02087 
 
Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR MARK WELLS FOR REASONS 1.4 (d 
) 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
1.  (C) After three weeks of wrangling, the Coordinadora 
Democratica (CD) on June 25 launched its presidential recall 
campaign committee and swore in members of its 'yes 
commands.'  Enrique Mendoza, Governor of Miranda and likely 
presidential candidate in a possible follow-on election, said 
in a televised event that the opposition has approximately 
500,000 volunteers ready to participate in the CD's campaign 
effort, which will focus on national unity and expose 
Chavez's failure to combat rising crime and unemployment. 
Key opposition leaders told Poloffs that they think their 
message will resonate with undecided voters and moderate 
Chavez supporters.  The opposition has yet to deliver this 
message to those key groups, nor has it announced its much 
anticipated governance plan.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------- 
CD launches campaign effort 
--------------------------- 
 
2. (U)  On June 25, the CD announced its national campaign 
committee, its answer to Chavez's Comando Maisanta.  Enrique 
Mendoza led the televised event and claimed that several of 
hundreds of thousands of volunteers will work in "Comandos 
por el Si," the opposition's local campaign committees.  He 
was joined by the other twelve members of the national 
campaign committee: 
 
Alejandro Armas--National Assembly (NA) Deputy from the 
Solidaridad party 
 
Albis Munoz--President of Fedecamaras 
 
Cesar Perez Vivas--COPEI Deputy from Tachira state 
 
Rafael Huizi Clavier--leader of the Institutional Military 
Front 
 
Pompeyo Marquez--an opposition wise man and a leader of Union 
party 
 
Juan Fernandez--President of Gente de Petroleo 
 
Jesus Torrealba--head of CD's public relations 
 
Henry Ramos Allup--President of AD 
 
Julio Borges--President of Primero Justicia 
 
Felipe Mujica--President of MAS 
 
Jorge Sucre--Proyecto Venezuela 
 
Manuel Cova--leader of the Confederation of Workers of 
Venezuela 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Slow Decision Making Process Hampering Opposition 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
3. (C) On June 25, Juan Fernandez expressed his frustration 
with the CD's slow decision making process to Poloffs.  He 
stated that bickering among the parties and groups over the 
size and membership of the campaign committee delayed its 
launch by nearly three weeks.  Fernandez--who is in charge of 
the CD's communications committee--said that the CD's poor 
decision making process is also undermining the 
communications effort.  He gave the example of the recent 
 
 
television advertisements telling supporters that "it's now 
or never" in describing the signature appeals process. 
Fernandez claimed he bypassed the regular decision making 
process and got Enrique Mendoza to sign off on the 
advertisements.  Fernandez claimed that if he had worked 
within the regular process, the proposal would still be in 
the discussion phase.  Fernandez added that, despite the 
success of the ads, CD members are still debating whether it 
was the right message. 
 
 
----------------------- 
Getting the Message Out 
----------------------- 
 
4. (C) Opposition leaders are confident that the opposition 
will win the recall vote, despite the recent Greenberg poll, 
which showed that the CD and the government are at a dead 
heat (ref a).  Fernandez stated that the opposition is going 
after undecided voters, the so called "ni-ni," as well as 
moderate Chavistas.  In particular, the CD is targeting young 
people, women and the poor with a three-point message of 
reuniting the polarized country and highlighting Chavez's 
inability to control rising crime and unemployment.  (Note: 
This is the advice of the CD's Washington consultants, 
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner.)  To deliver this three-pronged 
message, Fernandez said that the CD will not only use 
television advertisements, but also develop campaign 
literature and go to the poor neighborhoods where the 
majority of Venezuelans live.  At the same time, the 
opposition leadership is looking to reinvigorate its support 
base  Fernandez claimed that the June 25 event was designed 
in large part to reenergize CD's core followers. 
 
 
5. (C) Alejandro Armas told Poloffs on June 23 that the 
opposition would use SUMATE's telephone database of more than 
4 million supporters to rally the faithful.  Armas believes 
the opposition must give a vision to voters that they are 
capable of governing through 2006.  He noted the importance 
of making voters understand that Venzuelan democracy and 
institutions are at stake. 
 
 
------------------------------- 
What about the Governance Plan? 
------------------------------- 
 
   6. (C) The fanfare of the June 25 event failed to mention 
the anticipated governance plan nor the country consensus 
plan--a detailed proposal for a transitional 
government--despite previous claims from opposition insiders 
that the CD would do so on June 25 (ref b).  The campaign 
committee did not state when either plan would be announced. 
According to the CD literature, the political 
committee--whose 60 members were responsible for naming the 
campaign committee--is also responsible for the governance 
plan and the country consensus plan, as well as the method 
for selection a candidate for a possible follow on election. 
Details of both plans are sketchy and will probably focus in 
varying degrees of detail on similar issues of national 
unity, pledging to revive the economy while at the same time 
addressing social concerns. 
 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
7. (C) The opposition's campaign command is developing an 
electoral message that should resonate not only with its 
support base, but with moderate Chavistas and undecided 
voters.  However, the opposition has yet to demonstrate that 
it can translate these ideas into campaign actions.  The CD's 
slow decision making process will likely hamper its ability 
to compete against Chavez, who has direct control over his 
Comando Maisanta and has access to the government coffers. 
 
 
We do not meant to count the opposition out, as it is 
typically clumsy at the outset of its campaigns. And, while 
it is slow to reach internal agreements -- the opposition 
runs the gamut from right to left -- the opposition has shown 
its skill at organizing voting centers. But with just six 
weeks left before the referendum, the opposition needs to get 
moving. 
SHAPIRO 
 
 
NNNN 
 
      2004CARACA02123 - CONFIDENTIAL