US embassy cable - 04MONTREAL888

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MONTREAL 000888 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, CA, Bloc Quebecois, Elections 
SUBJECT: QUEBECERS GIVE BLOC QUEBECOIS 54 SEATS, PUNISHING 
LIBERALS 
 
1. This cable was jointly prepared by the Montreal and 
Quebec City Consulates. 
 
2. SUMMARY: As predicted, the Bloc Quebecois took 54 of 75 
possible seats in Quebec in yesterday's Federal election, 
gaining 21 seats in Parliament, and matching the party's 
1993 seat count, when former Bloc leader and founder Lucien 
Bouchard led the newly-born party to victory.  Quebec voters 
were the least volatile in Canada, as election-day results 
matched what pollsters had measured from the outset of the 
campaign.  Although the Conservatives came in second in a 
few races, neither they nor the New Democratic Party, which 
came in behind the Green party in many ridings, elected 
anyone in the province. 
 
3. Some have called the Bloc's performance a resurrection, 
since only a year ago the party's imminent demise was 
predicted by many pundits. However, handed the gift of the 
corporate sponsorship scandals -- and Liberal stumbling in 
its Quebec strategy -- Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe adroitly 
managed an almost mistake-free campaign, shrewdly depicting 
himself and his party as trust-worthy and competent Quebec- 
firsters, while downplaying his party's sovereignist goals 
in order to make in-roads among non-separatist Quebec 
voters.  While Separatist militants are buoyed by the 
election results, many Quebecers cast a protest vote  for 
the Bloc, because they wanted to punish the Liberals, and 
couldn't stomach the Conservatives. END SUMMARY 
 
Campaign Conduct 
 
4. The corporate sponsorship scandals figured hugely in the 
election results.  Gilles Duceppe, in his victory speech, 
reiterated that the loyalty of Quebecers cannot be bought, a 
reference to the Chretien government's channeling of funds 
to Liberal public relations firms in the province. 
Compounding their difficulties in overcoming the sponsorship 
scandals, the selection of Jean Lapierre as Prime Minister 
Martin's election lieutenant in Quebec was viewed by many as 
yet another example of Liberal cronyism.  Lapierre, who 
squeaked out a victory in the well-to-do and traditionally 
Liberal Outremont riding of Montreal, reportedly had 
promotional contracts with the tobacco industry and other 
big business interests, even while he served as a journalist 
and host of public affairs television and radio shows. 
 
5. While Lapierre was forced to take a low profile, Duceppe 
campaigned widely and prominently throughout the province, 
projecting confidence  and promotion of Quebec's interests. 
Duceppe has been depicted by political cartoonists for years 
as a dour, shower-capped -- a 1997 photo of Duceppe touring 
a Cheese factory wearing a sanitary hat has dogged his 
political career -- single-issue cousin of the provincial 
Parti Quebecois leaders.  However, during the campaign, 
Duceppe overcame his reputation for charmlessness. 
 
Sovereignty Question Re-Opened? 
 
6. PQ Opposition Leader Landry's comment in a June 23 Globe 
& Mail interview that a Bloc win could hasten the chances 
for a referendum on Quebec independence was practically the 
only gaffe in the Bloc's campaign.  Duceppe, and other Bloc 
candidates, however, maintained a disciplined message that 
this election was not about sovereignty, an issue that can 
only be decided through a provincial referendum.  While 
technically true, it was clear from Duceppe's acceptance 
speech and from Posts' campaign conversations with Bloc 
militants, that sovereignists in the province feel buoyed by 
the Bloc's show of strength.  There is already speculation 
that the 56-year-old Duceppe, who hailed Landry as his 
friend and supporter in his victory speech, could succeed 
the 67-year-old PQ leader in the next provincial election. 
 
7. Polling during the campaign did show a higher level of 
support for sovereignty - at 50 percent according to some 
data - than the average level since the 1995 referendum of 
42 percent.  However, analysts note that support for Quebec 
independence follows patterns that have been fairly constant 
over the past decades.  Stronger among the young, weaker 
among the elderly, women and ethnic communities, support for 
sovereignty when a referendum is only a faint prospect years 
away is not taken very seriously, even by voters.  The Parti 
Quebecois would have to regain their mandate in Quebec City 
for a referendum to be held.  Though his government is very 
unpopular right now, Liberal Quebec Premier Jean Charest 
does not have to call an election until 2007. 
 
Liberal Fortress Montreal Holds, Though Cracks Show 
 
8. Although none of the Montreal-area ministers and MPs lost 
their seats, many experienced their first tension-filled 
election night, with leads seesawing throughout the evening. 
Health Minister Pierre Pettigrew's victory in the Papineau 
riding was uncertain until early in the morning; he won by 
only a few hundred votes.  Development Minister Liza Frulla, 
in Jeanne-Le Ber, similarly won by less than 500 votes. 
Those small margins of victory should not prevent the two 
ministers from playing a key role in trying to re-establish 
the Liberal base in Quebec.  Martin is expected to rely as 
well on experienced Quebec MPs Denis Coderre and Stephane 
Dion. But Lapierre's election in Outremont may be a hot 
potato for Martin: if appointed to the cabinet, the former 
TV news analyst could remain a lightning rod for the media 
who will hound him about his past. 
 
Bloc Inroads 
 
9. The biggest loss for the Liberals in the Province was 
Heritage Minister Helene Chalifour-Scherrer in the Quebec 
City riding of Louis-Herbert.  She lost to French CBC 
reporter Roger Clavet of the Bloc.  The Bloc swept all 10 
seats in the Quebec City region, with the exception of the 
Beauce riding, where Liberal Claude Drouin barely clung to 
his seat.  He is now the only Liberal MP in eastern Quebec. 
The Liberal's star candidate Dennis Dawson in Beauport was 
beaten by Christian Simard, who won twice as many votes. 
The Liberals also lost Georges Farrah in the Iles-de-la- 
Madeleine to Bloquiste Raynald Blais. 
 
10. For the sovereignists to make headway in their 
independence cause, they need to win converts in Quebec's 
ethnic communities.  But during a candid conversation with 
Francine Lalonde, the Bloc's foreign affairs spokesperson, 
Montreal PAO was told that support for sovereignty among 
ethnic communities was still not very high despite the 
Bloc's incessant efforts.  Even among the French-speaking 
Haitian community, support for the Bloc does not reach forty 
percent, said Lalonde.  Lalonde said that for immigrants 
coming from countries where instability meant violence and 
chaos, it is very difficult to dismiss the fear campaign 
federalists mount any time Quebec's independence is 
mentioned.  One of the Bloc's challenges is to convince 
Haitian and other immigrant groups that they would be better 
off in a sovereign Quebec, than in the Canada that welcomed 
them and gave them a passport.  Still, Lalonde proudly 
introduced us to a Chinese volunteer from her riding, and 
also noted the endorsement of the Bloc by Black Coalition of 
Quebec President Dan Phillip. 
 
11. A quick look at the results shows the Bloc did improve 
its standing in ridings with a large ethnic percentage. 
Outremont, with a non-Francophone population of 50 percent, 
almost voted in a Bloc candidate, but that can partly be 
explained by the unpopularity of Jean Lapierre.  However, in 
St-Leonard (a heavily Italian district), Massimo Pacetti, a 
young Liberal unknown won scandal-tainted Alfonso Gagliano's 
old riding by more than 17,000 votes. 
 
12. In his victory speech, Duceppe also proudly hailed the 
victories of Bloc candidates Maka Kotto in St. Lambert and 
Bernard Cleary in Louis-Saint-Laurent. Kotto, an actor 
originally from Cameroon, has appeared on stage and in 
television series in Quebec.  Bernard Cleary, an Innu, is 
the first member of a First Nation to be elected from 
Quebec.  Duceppe, who has disciplined BQ MPs in the past for 
digressions from the party line, may find it more difficult 
to keep these newcomers on message.  Cleary drew rebukes 
from other First Nation chiefs and from Duceppe during the 
campaign when he said that Ottawa should send in the army to 
quell trouble on the Mohawk territory of Kanesatake.  Kotto 
is used to expressing himself freely, as well. 
 
Role of the Bloc In Ottawa Unchanged 
 
13.  Although headlines called the results a triumph for the 
Bloc, leader Duceppe may have preferred a Conservative 
minority with the Bloc holding the balance of power.  With a 
Liberal-NDP coalition, the left-of-center Bloc is still in 
the position of trying to claim credit for any progressive 
measures the government passes while continuing to criticize 
any attempts to centralize power in Ottawa.  The Bloc can be 
expected as well to continue hammering on the subject of 
fiscal imbalance between the provinces and the federal 
government when the House of Commons reopens. 
 
14. If NDP leader Jack Layton is true to his campaign 
rhetoric, and makes proportional representation a top 
priority once the Commons reconvenes, the Bloc might make an 
issue of it.  Though theoretically everyone supports PR, the 
subject is very sensitive in Quebec because it is closely 
related to linguistic divisions; proportional representation 
would give Montreal's West Island Anglophones considerable 
power. 
 
15. Comment:  Voter turnout in Quebec was lower than the 
national average at 58.9 percent.  The Liberals may have 
been hurt by voter fatigue in areas where municipal demerger 
referendums were held just last week.  All in all, while the 
Bloc Quebecois has certainly received a new lease on life, 
it would be hard to characterize the Bloc win as a sea 
change in attitudes here toward sovereignty.  As for the 
lifespan of the current minority Liberal government, Bloc 
MPs will not want to impose yet another election campaign on 
Quebecers in the near future  given that their party's 
current strength may fail when anger toward the Liberals 
dissipates.  End Comment. 
ALLEN