US embassy cable - 04LJUBLJANA599

UNCLAS  LJUBLJANA 000599 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/NCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, SI 
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA: CENTER-RIGHT OPPOSTION PARTIES FORM NEW 
GROUP WITH MEMBERS OF THE RULING COALITION IN ATTENDANCE 
 
REF: A. LJUBLJANA 576 
     B. LJUBLJANA 597 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: The Assembly for the Republic (AFTR) held 
an inaugural public meeting on 23 June reuniting DEMOS 
members, drawing like-minded academics, and gathering 
considerable media attention (ref A).  The AFTR continued to 
press its message for inclusion and national renovation in 
an attempt to rekindle the spirit of the DEMOS movement, 
which successfully sought Slovenian independence.  Speakers 
at the AFTR event also accused the ruling LDS party of 
having been hijacked by a left-wing faction of "vulgar 
liberals."  The presence of FoMin Rupel, who returned to 
Slovenia via charter plane from London in open defiance of 
his party's (LDS) ultimatum not to participate, captivated 
the audience and media present.  [NOTE: PM Anton Rop 
dismissed Rupel the following day. Ref B.  END NOTE].  Peter 
Jambrek, member of the Slovenian Democratic (SDS) Party and 
newly designated AFTR President; former MP and MEP-elect 
Alojz Peterle, New Slovenia (NSi); SDS President Janez 
Jansa; and NSi President Andrej Bajuk, addressed the crowd. 
Rupel, who was consequently dismissed as FoMin (ref B) for 
his political realignment with AFTR, will not sail quietly 
into the night.  Furthermore, what he has to say in the 
coming months about the LDS, and particularly about Rop's 
leadership of the party, could have broad repercussions in 
the political frenzy leading up to this fall's parliamentary 
election.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (U) On 23 June, PDO attended an inaugural public meeting 
of the Assembly for the Republic (AFTR).  The meeting was 
held in the same venue where former President Kucan's Forum 
21 was established, signifying the extent to which the AFTR 
has modeled itself as a political counterweight and 
alternative to Forum 21.  Borut Pahor, President of the 
National Assembly, one of the most popular political figures 
in Slovenia and the leader of junior coalition partner 
United List, attended the inaugural meeting as a "guest of 
honor."  Tine Hribar, a well-known philosopher, also spoke. 
 
AFTR - NOT RIGHT, NOT LEFT, BUT FOR SLOVENIA 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (U) Peter Jambrek, AFTR President, explained that the 
Assembly was established as a public forum to discuss the 
future of Slovenia as a NATO and EU member (ref A).  He 
explained that the AFTR was an "open forum" for all who 
wished to join and unequivocally noted that it was neither 
left-wing nor right-wing.  "The purpose of the AFTR is to 
find an alternative to the current situation in Slovenia and 
put the country back on the right path."  He mentioned that 
the convening of the AFTR was an attempt to revive the ethos 
of DEMOS and to gather a like-minded group of politicians 
and intellectuals to once again set Slovenia on the right 
path towards democracy.  As he put it, DEMOS helped lead 
Slovenia to independence, democratic rule, and a free market 
in the late 1980's.  A similar organization was now needed 
to rectify the "grave problems" within Slovenian democracy. 
Jambrek also pointed out the need to establish a genuinely 
liberal market economy, calling for lower taxes, open and 
fair competition, and less interference from the State. 
 
4. (U) For his part, Peterle said that the AFTR needed to 
stay the course of multi-partisanship and commented, "We 
should stop those that are stopping Slovenia." 
 
HRIBAR: LDS AS THE "VULGAR LIBERALS" 
------------------------------------ 
 
5.  (U) A visibly nervous Tine Hribar stated that the LDS 
coalition had led the country into an era of corruption and 
false democracy, openly calling for the establishment of a 
new center-right party patterned after DEMOS.  He labeled 
the LDS "vulgar liberals," claiming that the party had 
perverted the true meaning of liberalism, and described the 
LDS's style of governance as "Leninist" -- "if you are not 
with us you are against us."  Hribar also spoke of the need 
to form a center-right party that would work together with 
the Church, but that would also appeal to middle-of-the-road 
voters. 
 
JANSA: "MEDIA MONOPOLY" 
 
 
------------------------ 
 
6.  (U) SDS's Jansa accused the ruling coalition of having 
established a "media-financial monopoly" within Slovenia, 
and claimed that certain opinions "never get printed in our 
media."  He also accused a "left-wing faction" within the 
LDS of initiating a "culture war" by pitting different 
sections of Slovenian society against each other.  He did 
say, however, that the participation of Rupel and Pahor in 
the AFTR - both as representatives of the ruling coalition - 
boded well for the future and for the establishment of a new 
political order in Slovenia. 
 
MEMBERS OF THE GOVERNING COALITION SPEAK 
----------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (SBU) Invited as the guest of honor, Pahor was the only 
governing coalition member besides Rupel to address the 
group.  In his opinion, there is no need to form another 
version of DEMOS "because there is no radical conflict or 
break up as there was 14 years ago."  He did signal, 
however, the need for change in the current political 
situation by stating that more multi-partisanship was needed 
because there can be no progress without it. [COMMENT: There 
has been speculation that Pahor's attendance was to provide 
"political cover" for Rupel, so that Rupel would not be the 
only governing coalition member in attendance and, 
therefore, have some added job security.  The "cover," 
obviously, was not adequate, as Rupel's dismissal was 
announced by Rop on 24 June.  END COMMENT. ] 
 
 
8.  (U) FoMin Rupel received a noisy welcome as he made it 
back to Ljubljana in time for the meeting despite the 
attempts by the LDS leadership to prevent his attendance. 
Rupel's Nova Revija friends funded a charter plane from 
London to make sure the FoMin made it back on time.  [NOTE: 
In 1987, a group of Slovenian intellectuals that opposed the 
Communists gathered around the periodical Nova Revija and 
advocated abandoning the Communist system and introducing a 
pluralistic democratic system in an independent Slovenian 
state.  This movement gathered steam and contributed to the 
creation of the political coalition DEMOS in November 1989. 
In the first democratic elections in April 1990, DEMOS 
defeated the Communist successor party and formed the first 
Slovenian democratic government with Lojze Peterle as PM, 
Dimitrij Rupel as FoMin, and Janez Jansa as DefMin. END 
NOTE].  On 21 June, the LDS Executive Council met to debate 
Rupel's having signed the document establishing the AFTR, 
and had instructed him not to attend the inaugural meeting. 
PM Anton Rop, talking on behalf of the party, stated that 
the AFTR is more of an "Assembly for the [opposition] SDS" 
which is why the LDS expected that Rupel would refrain from 
taking part "in meetings that go against the LDS."  Rop, 
however, added that the Executive Council does not have the 
power to decide on Rupel's fate as minister, a decision that 
only he and Parliament can decide. 
 
PRESIDENT DRNOVSEK'S REACTION TO AFTR 
------------------------------------- 
 
9.  (SBU) Earlier in the week, President Janez Drnovsek told 
the press that he had nothing special to say about Rupel and 
AFTR and added that too much attention is being paid to it. 
He also stated that Slovenia is a free country where people 
can freely express their opinion and freely take part in 
gatherings of any sort.  Finally, he assumed an apolitical 
stance by asserting that the role of President must remain 
distanced from political initiatives.  [COMMENT: Still, we 
think that Drnovsek is happy to see a group form to 
counterbalance his rival Kucan's new Forum 21.  END 
COMMENT.] 
 
COMMENT 
-------- 
10.  (SBU) The Assembly for the Republic has not disguised 
its aspirations to become the focal organization of 
Slovenia's center-right and the principal challenge to 
former President Kucan's Forum 21, the biggest alliance of 
leftist politicians and industrialists.  It remains to be 
seen if the AFTR will remain a temporary alliance of 
convenience or whether it will crystallize into a genuine 
political organization uniting parties of the center-right. 
The association with FoMin Rupel could play a role in 
 
 
determining whether or not AFTR will be successful.  The 
left-of-center media have been highly critical of Rupel and 
have generally been disparaging of AFTR.  The Slovenian 
daily Dnevnik called Rupel a "capricious and conceited 
politician" and predicted that he would turn on this new 
organization like he turned on his current party, LDS. 
Rupel's dismissal from the government might indicate a 
stronger identification with AFTR.  Furthermore, what Rupel 
has to say about the LDS, particularly Rop's leadership (or 
lack thereof) will matter in an election where the political 
factions (intra and inter party) may seek to redefine their 
positions.  The main question remains, however, whether or 
not a significant political realignment will occur before 
the fall national elections and, if it does and the center- 
right emerges victorious, whether or not its constituent 
parties will be able to put aside differences and rule 
successfully.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
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