US embassy cable - 04FRANKFURT5543

UNCLAS FRANKFURT 005543 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, GM 
SUBJECT: Local Elections: SPD Struggles, CDU Stays Strong 
 
REF: (A) FRANKFURT 4964 (B) FRANKFURT 5178 
 
1.  SUMMARY: Voters in June 13 communal elections in SW 
Germany followed the nation-wide pattern of punishing SPD 
candidates in a protest vote against the SPD national 
government.  The SPD fared poorly in Baden-Wuerttemberg and 
Rheinland-Pfalz, and turned in a weak performance that 
nonetheless exceeded expectations in Saarland.  Greens, Free 
Democrats, and independents recorded the largest gains, 
while support for the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) 
remained strong throughout the region.  Although the CDU's 
margin of victory in Saarland (under popular Minister- 
President Peter Mueller) was narrower than expected, the CDU 
remains the favorite to prevail in state elections there 
this September.   END SUMMARY. 
 
Baden-Wuerttemberg  Independents Move Into First Place 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
2.  Baden-Wuerttemberg communal elections featured minor 
losses for the CDU, painful defeats for the SPD, and gains 
for the Greens and the FDP.  The biggest winners were 
independents with 34.4 percent of the vote (up 0.7 pct) -- 
reflecting the state's regional diversity and traditional 
voter willingness to entrust local issues to independents -- 
followed by Christian Democrats with 32.4 percent (down 1.5 
percent).  The SPD dug a deeper hole for itself with 18 
percent of the vote (down from its 1999 low of 19.9 
percent).  Greens and Liberals increased their vote shares 
to 6.6 and 3.1 percent respectively.  The Greens, who only 
ran in one third of B-W's communities, had spectacular gains 
in the university cities of Tuebingen (where they became the 
strongest party), Freiburg, Heidelberg, and Stuttgart.  In 
Stuttgart, the CDU lost almost six points but defended its 
majority and remains optimistic that CDU incumbent Schuster 
will be re-elected in October 10 mayoral elections. 
 
Rheinland-Pfalz  Popular M-P Beck Unable to Stem SPD Losses 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
3.  On the heels of dismal results in balloting for the 
European elections (reftel B), Rheinland-Pfalz Social 
Democrats suffered their worst ever defeat in communal 
elections, receiving only 28.9 percent of the vote (down 7.2 
percent).  The R-P CDU maintained its position as the 
strongest party in the state with 45.2 percent of the vote 
(down 0.9 percent).  Smaller parties posted gains, with 
independent voter groups receiving 11.6 (up four percent), 
Greens receiving 7.1 percent (up 2.1 percent), and Free 
Democrats polling 6 percent of the vote (up 1.9 percent). 
Popular and well-regarded Minister-President Kurt Beck (SPD) 
described the results as "a bitter day for the SPD" and 
asserted that voters were punishing the party for painful 
but necessary reforms at the national level.  Meanwhile, CDU 
leader Christoph Boehr called the election "a dream result" 
for the CDU and an excellent foundation for state elections 
in 2006.  Boehr announced a special convention at the end of 
the year to select the CDU's standard bearer for the 2006 
contest. 
 
Saarland  CDU Victorious, but Rays of Hope for the SPD 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
4. The CDU notched a clear victory over the SPD in Saarland, 
receiving 46 percent of the vote in contrast to the SPD's 37 
percent total.  The Greens and Free Democrats posted gains, 
with the Greens receiving 5.9 percent (up 1.5 percent) and 
the FDP 4.3 percent (up 1.7 percent) respectively.  This 
year's polling marks only the second time in postwar history 
that the CDU has beaten the SPD in Saarland communal 
elections.  The SPD managed a strong finish in local 
elections, with the SPD challenger forcing a popular CDU 
incumbent into a second round of voting for mayor of 
influential Saarlouis.  The SPD leadership hopes that its 
unexpectedly strong showing will generate momentum for state 
elections in September. 
 
5.  COMMENT:  Communal election results in SW Germany were 
largely consistent with results from concurrent European 
elections (ref B) as well as communal contests in other 
parts of Germany.  The Greens used the elections to expand 
their electoral base across the region, particularly in 
Baden-Wuerttemberg (a traditional CDU stronghold that has 
nonetheless tradionally had a strong Greens party).  The 
CDU's impressive results in Rheinland-Pfalz strengthened 
party head Christoph Boehr's position as putative standard- 
bearer against SPD M-P Beck in 2006 state elections. 
Although results in Saarland show that the Saar Social 
Democrats have managed to sidestep some of the 
disappointment with the government in Berlin, the party 
still remains a clear underdog against popular and energetic 
CDU Minister-President Peter Mueller in September.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
BODDE