US embassy cable - 04ABUDHABI2113

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABU DHABI 002113 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SECAF FOR DR ROCHE, CSAF FOR GENERALS JUMPER AND 
MOSELEY AND USCENTAF FOR LTG BUCHANAN 
STATE FOR D, PM, NEA/ARP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2014 
TAGS: MCAP, MASS, TC 
SUBJECT: SHAYKH MOHAMED BIN ZAYED REJECTS UNARMED 
PREDATOR PROPOSAL 
 
Ref: State 111651 (EXDIS) 
 
(U) Classified by Richard A. Albright, Charg d'Affaires, a.i., reasons 1. 
5 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: Abu Dhabi Deputy Crown Prince and UAE 
Armed Forces Chief of Staff Shaykh Mohamed bin Zayed 
Al-Nahyan (MbZ) met on June 26 with a SAF/IA team led 
by Brigadier General Ronald Yaggi, Director of 
Regional Affairs for the Deputy Under Secretary of the 
Air Force for International Affairs, to receive a 
briefing on the US Predator unmanned aerial vehicle 
(UAV) proposal.  MbZ rejected the U.S. proposal for an 
unarmed Predator-A export version telling General 
Yaggi that only an armed version of the UAV would 
fulfill the UAE's national security objectives.  End 
Summary. 
 
2. (C) During a June 26 briefing by a SAF/IA team led 
by General Yaggi, MbZ said he was not interested in 
the "interim solution," a Missile Technology Control 
Regime (MTCR) Category II compliant unarmed Predator- 
A.  MbZ said he was aware of the USG's strict policy 
limitations regarding such transfers.  He expressed 
regret that the US could not meet his need for an 
armed UAV.  He said that he always preferred to work 
with us and equip his forces with US equipment and 
systems.  MbZ reiterated that the UAE was the only 
Arab and Muslim country contributing forces in 
Afghanistan.  MbZ explained that the UAE needed armed 
Predator UAVs to protect their special forces units 
deployed in Afghanistan as well as for coastal and 
border surveillance.  An armed Predator would enable 
the UAE to strike at terrorists and drug smugglers. 
 
3. (C) MbZ, who expressed frustration at having waited 
more than two years for a USG response to his request 
for an armed Predator, had raised the UAE request 
repeatedly with State and DoD interlocutors, as 
recently as his May 2004 visit to Washington (see 
reftel).  MbZ told General Yaggi that the UAE is 
prepared to develop an indigenous armed UAV with the 
help of other countries, citing Israel, South Africa, 
France, Italy, Germany, and China as potential 
partners.  "There are a lot of offers," he said.  More 
than one system is "under study," MbZ said, adding 
that the UAE will be deploying its South African-made 
Seeker II UAV's at Bagram Air Base in the fall.  MbZ 
realizes that any UAV it develops with other partners 
will not initially be equal in capability to the US 
Predator, but believes that it would gain capability 
over time.  He also acknowledged that the MTCR would 
prevent the UAE from selling the UAV it develops, but 
the UAE has an "operational requirement" that must be 
fulfilled.  Referring to SAF/IA's Predator-A proposal, 
MbZ said, "If it is not armed, this proposal is not 
acceptable." 
 
4. (C) BG Yaggi said that we viewed this proposal as 
an interim solution, that the modified ISR-Predator 
could be upgraded and simply used as a gap filler.  It 
would also have the same operational capabilities as 
the US ISR version.  General Yaggi told MbZ that the 
US considers an armed Predator-A UAV less effective 
than F-16s, Apache helicopters or patrol boats in 
intercepting targets at sea or in the desert.  He also 
said that the US has never sold an armed Predator to 
anyone.  MbZ said that he had other UAV's that could 
provide surveillance, and that his requirement was for 
an armed version only.  MbZ rejected the idea that an 
unarmed ISR-Predator would provide superior 
surveillance and could be tied into their air defense 
network where fighters, attack helicopters, or patrol 
boats could be used as an armed response. 
 
5. (C) After rejecting the modified Predator-A 
alternative, MbZ said there was no need to see 
SAF/IA's full briefing.  General Yaggi said that he 
would convey MbZ's decision to Washington. 
 
6. (C) Comment: Despite having left the impression 
with several interlocutors over the past year that he 
would ultimately consider an unarmed Predator if that 
were his only option, MbZ has now closed the door with 
his statement that he will only consider an armed UAV. 
MbZ did not indicate that he objected to the idea of a 
modified MTCR-compliant Predator, his only stipulation 
being that it had to be armed.   MbZ's position leaves 
three options: 
 
(1) Make no further offers and provide MbZ with an 
official negative response.  MbZ said such a response 
would propel him to develop an armed UAV with a 
foreign partner. 
(2) Consider release of an armed, MTCR-compliant, 
Predator. 
(3) Work for an MTCR revision that would allow 
transfer of Predator-B to the UAE. 
 
7. (C) The country team position is that options 2 and 
3 are far preferable to option 1.  We urge the 
interagency stakeholders to work toward release of an 
armed Predator that would meet UAE needs. 
8. (U) This message was cleared by Brigadier General 
Yaggi. 
ALBRIGHT