US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2087

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002087 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
USAID DCHA/OTI FOR RPORTER 
 
    E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: NEW REFERENDUM POLLING FIGURES 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR MARK WELLS FOR REASONS 1.4 (D 
) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C)  GREENBERG, ROSNER AND QUINLAN (GRQ) SHOWED THE 
OPPOSITION THE PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF ITS LATEST POLL 
REGARDING THE AUGUST 15 REFERENDUM.  THE FIGURES SHOW THAT 
VOTERS ARE SPLIT 48-TO-48  ON WHETHER TO RECALL PRESIDENT 
HUGO CHAVEZ.  GRQ REP MARK FEIERSTIEN CONTENDED THAT WITH THE 
ECONOMY DOING WELL AND CHAVEZ APPEARING INCREASINGLY 
DEMOCRATIC AFTER CALLING FOR THE REFERENDUM, THE OPPOSITION 
MUST ESTABLISH ITS ELECTORAL MESSAGE, WHICH SHOULD FOCUS ON 
CHAVEZ,S DISMAL RECORD ON JOBS, SOCIETAL UNITY AND CRIME. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
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PRELIMINARY FIGURES 
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2.  (C)  MARK FEIERSTIEN OF GREENBERG, ROSNER AND QUINLAN 
(GRQ) TOLD POLOFF ON JUNE 24 THE PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF GRQ'S 
LATEST POLL REGARDING THE AUGUST 15 PRESIDENTIAL RECALL 
REFERENDUM.  THE FIGURES, COLLECTED AFTER THE REFERENDUM WAS 
CONVOKED, SHOW THAT LIKELY VOTERS ARE SPLIT 48-TO-48 OVER 
    WHETHER TO RECALL PRESIDENT HUGO CHAVEZ.  FEIERSTIEN OFFERED 
THREE REASONS FOR THE FIGURES.  FIRST, CHAVISTAS ARE MORE 
LIKELY TO VOTE NOW THAT THERE IS A REFERENDUM.  SECOND, THE 
ECONOMY HAS DONE WELL IN THE LAST THREE MONTHS, WITH HIGH OIL 
PRICES AND MASSIVE SOCIAL SPENDING.  LASTLY, BY GOING FORWARD 
WITH THE REFERENDUM, CHAVEZ DEMONSTRATED HIS "COMMITMENT" TO 
DEMOCRACY AND WON HIMSELF INCREASED SUPPORT.  FEIERSTIEN SAID 
CHAVEZ WOULD WIN THE REFERENDUM IF THESE TRENDS ARE NOT 
ARRESTED NOW. 
 
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A MESSAGE TO THE OPPOSITION 
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3.  (C)  FEIERSTIEN SAID HE DELIVERED THESE RESULTS TO A 
SELECT GROUP OF SENIOR OPPOSITION REPRESENTATIVES.  HE 
OBSERVED THAT THE OPPOSITION HAS TO FOCUS ITS REFERENDUM 
CAMPAIGN AGAINST CHAVEZ AND HIS DISMAL RECORD ON JOBS, 
SOCIETAL UNITY AND CRIME.  HE ASSERTED THE OPPOSITION SHOULD 
STAY AWAY FROM THE ISSUES OF DEMOCRACY, AS CHAVEZ APPEARS 
MORE DEMOCRATIC AFTER CALLING THE REFERENDUM.  CORRUPTION IS 
ALSO A POOR THEME, FEIERSTIEN SAID, UNLESS A MAJOR SCANDAL 
ERUPTS DIRECTLY IMPLICATING CHAVEZ.  THOSE POLLED DID NOT 
VIEW CHAVEZ AS CORRUPT, RATHER BELIEVING THE OPPOSITION TO BE 
WORSE.  FEIERSTIEN ALSO CONTENDED THAT THE OPPOSITION SHOULD 
NOT SPEND EXCESSIVE TIME WRANGLING OVER THE ISSUES OF VOTING 
MACHINES AND INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS, BUT SHOULD CONCENTRATE 
ON ESTABLISHING ITS ELECTORAL MESSAGE. 
 
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COMMENT 
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4.  (C)  THE POLL IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE IT IS THE FIRST 
"POST-REPAROS" POLL.  CHAVEZ GOT A BUMP OUT OF ACCEPTING THE 
REFERENDUM.  PREVIOUS POLLS ALSO MAY NOT HAVE ACCURATELY 
GAUGED THE COMMITMENT OF CHAVEZ SUPPORTERS, WHO DID NOT 
BELIEVE THERE WOULD BE A REFERENDUM.  ADMITTEDLY, GRQ IS 
SELLING ITS SERVICES AS AN ELECTORAL CONSULTANT AND THIS IS 
ITS SALES PRESENTATION.  HOWEVER, THE MESSAGE IS CLEAR: 
CHAVEZ IS FAR FROM FINISHED AND THE OPPOSITION HAS A TOUGH 
CHALLENGE AHEAD. 
SHAPIRO 
 
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      2004CARACA02087 - CONFIDENTIAL