US embassy cable - 04HALIFAX164

UNCLAS HALIFAX 000164 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, CA, Liberal Party, Elections 
SUBJECT: FEDERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN:  LIBERALS MAINTAIN SUPPORT IN 
ATLANTIC CANADA 
 
REF: HALIFAX 0159 AND PREVIOUS 
 
 
1.  In our meetings this past week with election-watchers, 
pollsters, party officials and candidates themselves, the 
consensus still appears to be that the Liberals will maintain 
the majority of the 32 seats in Atlantic Canada in the June 28 
federal election (reftel).  With just a few days left in the 
campaign our contacts are standing by their original predictions 
that the Liberals will continue to take advantage of the general 
trepidation towards Conservative leader Stephen Harper and the 
reluctance of the electorate to move towards the third-place New 
Democratic Party.  Although Conservative candidates have had 
some success in assuaging the fears that Atlantic Canadians have 
over how Mr. Harper views economic development issues in the 
Atlantic region, voters are not ready to abandon the Liberals 
entirely.  Consequently, and in spite of what our contacts 
believe has been a poor campaign by the Liberals, the Liberals 
will still prevail on election day.  One of our contacts summed 
up the campaign by saying that Atlantic Canadians will simply be 
asking themselves, "Who can I trust, or who can I least 
distrust?" 
 
2.  Comment:  With their apparent agreement on who is going to 
capture the 32 seats here, the focus has now drifted to the 
national stage.  Like their counterparts across the country, 
each is coming up with a variety of scenarios for what will 
happen in the event of a widely anticipated minority government 
situation.  While they have somewhat different views on what 
party can form alliances with whom, the one point they do have 
in common is that the country could very well be headed to the 
polls in the next year, year-and-half time frame.  End Comment 
 
 
ROWLAND