US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN1439

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001439 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE, EUR/PGI, EUR/SE, DRL 
DEPT PASS MCC 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, EAID, AM 
SUBJECT:  YEREVAN REACTION TO KOCHARIAN'S JUNE 24 COUNCIL OF 
EUROPE SPEECH 
 
 
1. (U) Sensitive But Unclassified.  Please treat 
accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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2. (SBU) Local media reaction was mostly positive in Yerevan 
following President Robert Kocharian's June 24 address to 
the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE). 
The address, which was covered widely by all local media 
outlets, inspired a flurry of formal and informal commentary 
among GOAM representatives, analysts and international 
missions.  Kocharian supporters within the GOAM were 
enthusiastic about the speech and told Post that it was a 
"triumph" in response to the opposition's recent criticism 
of Kocharian at PACE.  As expected, Armenian opposition 
leaders sharply criticized the speech, particularly 
Kocharian's description of the GOAM's response to recent 
opposition activity.  Supporters and critics alike, however, 
reacted positively to Kocharian's comments regarding Nagorno- 
Karabakh and the uncharacteristically nostalgic tone of his 
speech.  End summary. 
 
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PRESS REPORTS GENERALLY POSITIVE 
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3. (SBU) After considerable speculation in editorial pages 
the preceding week, local media response to Kocharian's June 
24 speech was generally positive.  Two days before the 
speech, Yerevan daily "Haykakan Zhamanak" coyly predicted 
that Kocharian might falter in Strasbourg when faced with 
hostile questions from the Azeri and Turkish delegations. 
Following the speech, however, the same newspaper reported 
that Kocharian gave a strong performance and congratulated 
his ability to "present Armenia in the best possible light." 
For the most part, local media did not draw connections 
between Kocharian's speech and the Council of Europe's 
resolution on Armenia.  Instead, coverage concentrated on 
Kocharian's comments regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh 
conflict.  Initial press reports interpreted his statements 
as a new approach for Kocharian, signaling a more "helpful" 
GOAM posture on the N-K issue. 
 
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GOAM SUPPORTERS APPLAUD KOCHARIAN'S "FORCEFUL DELIVERY" 
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4. (SBU) Kocharian supporters within the GOAM were 
enthusiastic about the speech and told Post that it was a 
"triumphant" response to the opposition's recent criticism 
of Kocharian at PACE.  MFA contacts told us they were 
pleasantly surprised by his forceful delivery and were 
hopeful that it would counteract any negative impressions of 
the GOAM resulting from opposition parliamentarians' March- 
April speeches.  The speech appeared to exceed the 
expectations of some within the GOAM who earlier predicted 
Kocharian might use the opportunity to aggressively 
discredit the opposition during his address. 
 
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CRITICISM FROM OPPOSITION BUT POSITIVE TAKE ON N-K COMMENTS 
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5. (SBU) While not overly negative, opposition leaders were 
quick to criticize Kocharian's speech.  Speaking from 
Strasbourg, National Accord Party Chairman Artashes 
Geghamian classified Kocharian's analysis of domestic 
political developments in Armenia as "distorted." 
Opposition Justice Bloc leader Stepan Demirchian told us he 
was annoyed by Kocharian's defense of the GOAM's response to 
the opposition rally of April 12-13 and predicted that these 
comments would later hurt the President.  National 
Democratic Union Chairman Vazgen Manukian described 
Kocharian's address as "mediocre" and said it was 
confirmation that Kocharian would never be able to rise 
above his perceived "role as a battalion commander." 
Geghamian and others within the opposition, however, reacted 
favorably to Kocharian's comments on the Nagorno-Karabakh 
conflict.  Geghamian congratulated Kocharian for making 
specific mention of the Paris and Key West principles.  He 
added, however, that Kocharian's commitment to the issue 
would be better perceived were he to make similar comments 
in Yerevan rather than in Strasbourg.    The issue of a 
joint opposition statement in response to Kocharian's 
address is reportedly first on the June 30 agenda of a 
meeting of the leaders of the Justice Bloc and The National 
Accord Party. 
COMMENT 
6. (SBU) While still early, Kocharian's speech was not 
initially the lightning rod for local criticism many 
observers had predicted.  Local media coverage of the 
speech, together with unexpectedly positive reactions by 
opposition leaders in response to Kocharian's N-K comments, 
have clearly provided a boost of confidence for his 
supporters.  In contrast to his traditionally restrained 
public posture, Kocharian's personal tone during the 
question and answer period appears to have struck a 
nostalgic chord -- at least for now -- with a number of 
Armenians across party lines. 
ORDWAY