US embassy cable - 04TEGUCIGALPA1434

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEGUCIGALPA 001434 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA DAS DAN FISK, WHA/CEN AND INR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/24/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, ELAB, PREL, PHUM, HO 
SUBJECT: HONDURAN PROTESTS BEGIN TO CREATE CONCERNS ABOUT 
POLITICAL STABILITY 
 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Francisco Palmieri; 
reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  Honduran President Ricardo Maduro is facing 
an increasingly challenging domestic political situation. 
United teachers' unions are entering their fourth week on 
strike and have rejected offers from the government to 
resolve its wage dispute.  President Maduro personally joined 
the negotiations during the week of June 14-19 and was unable 
to get the teachers to return to the classrooms or enter into 
direct negotiations with the government.  Meanwhile, a 
widening corruption scandal at the Forestry Service involving 
logging permits and illegal logging has galvanized public 
support for the nascent environmental movement in Honduras. 
On June 24, the March For Life (Marcha Por La Vida) will 
begin from multiple points in Honduras and culminate in 
Tegucigalpa on June 30th in front of the Casa Presidencial. 
The marchers are protesting the government's complicity in 
and inaction against threats to the environment and human 
life, especially ongoing deforestation, illegal logging and 
hard world trade, deterioration of water sources, poorly 
regulated mining, and national hunger.  The President asked 
the marchers on June 22 to postpone their march and open a 
dialogue with him.  While the President is directly engaged 
in his government's response to both of these challenges to 
its authority, he has not been able resolve them.  Political 
missteps by Maduro and his team have exacerbated the 
situation.  His inability to exert effective leadership is 
creating some uncertainty about the stability of the 
political situation.  To date, the Embassy firmly believes 
that President Maduro remains in control of the situation and 
there has been no coalescing of opposition forces which would 
threaten the government in the near immediate future. 
However, given this climate, a single catalytic event, such 
as a violent confrontation between police and protesters, 
could create a more volatile situation.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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SUSTAINED POLITICAL CHALLENGES CREATE PUBLIC CONCERN 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
2. (C)  During the past month, Honduran President Ricardo 
Maduro has been confronting an ongoing series of political 
challenges, including a teachers' strike and a national 
pro-environment march, which his government has not been able 
to resolve easily.  Political opponents are making the 
situation more difficult by suggesting that the country is 
entering a period of ungovernability.  While the President is 
directly engaged in his government's response to these 
challenges, his involvement has not advanced the settlement 
prospects.  Also according to a Minister, a congressional 
leader, and other non-governmental sources, political 
missteps by Maduro and his Ministers have exacerbated the 
situation. 
 
3. (C)  With President Maduro's popularity at its lowest 
point in his presidency, his government does not have a 
reservoir of political capital or support to draw upon in 
dealing with these issues.  Consequently, the President has 
only been able to rally limited public support for his 
positions.  Private sector umbrella organizations have taken 
out full page ads in the newspapers supporting the government 
and, privately, the military is steadfast in its support. 
Both groups would like to see the government act more 
decisively and forcefully to bring order to the current 
uncertain atmosphere. 
 
4. (C)  Finally, the government, citing intelligence sources, 
expressed publicly its concern that the groups opposing it 
are being externally funded in an effort to destabilize the 
country.  Maduro also announced that as a demonstration of 
his commitment to resolve the internal problems in the 
country, he was suspending all trips abroad, including 
canceling a planned trip to the U.S.  According to one 
political analyst, both statements created a higher level of 
public uneasiness, not just about the source and legitimacy 
of the current protests, but also about the possibility that 
a larger confrontation may be in the offing. 
 
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TEACHERS' STRIKE INTO FOURTH WEEK AMID SIGNS 
UNIONS PREFER CONFRONTATION TO NEGOTIATION 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
5. (U) Honduras' February 2004 IMF agreement included 
controversial, but needed and IMF required, fiscal provisions 
to bring the government's total public sector wage bill under 
control.  Teachers' salaries represented the largest part of 
the bill.  After almost two years of negotiation, Congress 
passed legislation in December freezing teacher pay and 
benefits at 2003 levels and repealing the economic provisions 
of the existing 1996 teacher salary law after intensive 
negotiations between the government, congressional leaders, 
and the unions.  The President of Congress Pepe Lobo 
announced that the new law was part of a deal between the 
government and the teachers to bring the spiraling teacher 
wage bill under control. 
 
6. (C) However, two months into the school year (February to 
November in Honduras), the teachers decided to strike after 
efforts to negotiate a smaller wage increase within the IMF 
program framework stalled.  The Minister of Labor told PolOff 
that the teachers' demands turned quickly to trying to 
restore wages and benefits lost under the December agreement. 
 In addition, President Maduro failed in January to dismiss 
the Minister of Education and other ministers as part of the 
government's end of the December deal.  According to labor 
leaders and congressional sources, this breach of faith 
enraged the leadership of the two teachers' unions, which 
previously had been divided over how to confront the 
government's fiscally limited wage offer. 
 
7. (C)  Determined, and now united, the teachers' unions have 
demonstrated strong solidarity in their fourth week on strike 
and have rejected multiple fiscally-viable offers from the 
government to resolve the issues at the core of the dispute. 
President Maduro personally entered the negotiations during 
the week of June 14-19 and proved unable to get the teachers 
to return to the classrooms and/or join the government for 
direct negotiations.  The teachers' response this week has 
been to escalate their demands.  Many Embassy interlocutors 
note that the unions appear to prefer a confrontation with 
the government rather than a willingness to utilize the 
traditional Honduran option of seeking a consensus agreement 
through extended negotiation. 
 
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ORGANIZERS INSIST MARCH FOR LIFE WILL BE PEACEFUL; 
REJECT PRESIDENT'S CALL TO POSTPONE IT FOR TALKS 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
8. (U)  On June 24, the March For Life (Marcha Por La Vida) 
will begin from four cardinal points in Honduras (including 
Olancho), culminating in Tegucigalpa on June 30th at the Casa 
Presidencial.  The March is in protest of the government's 
complicity in and inaction against threats to the environment 
and human life, especially ongoing deforestation, illegal 
logging and hard wood trade, deterioration of water sources, 
poorly regulated mining, and national hunger.  It is also 
fueled by a widening corruption scandal at the Forestry 
Service involving logging permits and illegal logging.  The 
scandal has galvanized broader public support for the 
environmental movement in Honduras. 
 
9. (U)  Father Andres Tamayo, a Salvadoran Catholic priest 
who resides in Olancho and heads the Olancho Environmentalist 
Movement (MAO), is leading the March.  Organizers have told 
the Honduran press that this will be a peaceful march with 
the goal of awakening public consciousness about the 
deteriorating environmental situation in the country.   They 
expect ten thousand people to participate, including members 
of the Catholic Church, public institutions, civil society, 
teachers, and campesinos.  A small delegation sponsored by 
the Center for International Policy and organized by former 
U.S. Ambassador Bob White will participate in the March as a 
sign of international support and solidarity.  The delegation 
may include Representative Maurice Hinchey (D-NY), former 
Maryland lieutenant governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, 
Robert Edgar (Secretary General of the National Churches 
Counsel), and actor Mike Farrell (Co-president of Human 
Rights Watch). 
 
10. (C)  The government's response to the March has been 
disjointed.  On June 10, President of Congress Lobo stated 
that under Honduran law foreigners who participate in public 
demonstrations could be expelled from the country.  If true, 
this law would have prevented Tamayo from participating in 
his own march.  Subsequently, a Honduran immigration official 
stated that, according to the Constitution, foreigners 
residing in Honduras have the same rights as any Honduran to 
demonstrate.  On June 22, President Maduro, who has said that 
he supports the objectives of the march, requested that it be 
postponed because of confidential information indicating that 
certain groups hope to use the March to create an environment 
that will destabilize his government.  He invited the march 
organizers to begin an immediate open dialogue with him. 
 
11. (C) March organizers responded that the march would go 
on.  MAO and Cofadeh (Committee of Relatives of 
Detained-Desaparecidos) leaders told the Honduran press that 
because the march has been announced since March of last year 
it could not postponed at this late date.  They reiterated 
that the protest is peaceful and denied that they were 
seeking to destabilize the government.  The Catholic Church 
withdrew support for the march, despite typically being a 
strong advocate of the defense of the forests, warning the 
public through the media that it would not be involved in 
acts intended to destabilize governments that have been 
elected by the will of a majority. 
 
12. (C) COMMENT:  To date, the Embassy firmly believes that 
President Maduro remains in control of the situation and 
there has been no coalescing of opposition forces which would 
threaten the stability of the government in the immediate 
future.  However, a statement by the leftist Bishop of Copan 
Luis Alfonso Santos on June 22, warning the government the 
goal of the March was to destabilize and attack the GOH, was 
cited by senior level Casa Presidencial officials to POLCOUNS 
that the March was being manipulated by elements with a more 
confrontational agenda.  They also pointed out that Bishop 
Santos said the march organizers may ask for President 
Maduro's resignation.  President Maduro's inability to exert 
effective leadership and some of his government's 
contradictory public statements have helped to create some 
uncertainty about the stability of the political situation. 
Given this climate, a single catalytic event, such as a 
violent confrontation between police and protesters, could 
create a more volatile situation.  However, we doubt a call 
for the President's resignation by the marchers would be 
widely supported.  END COMMENT. 
 
Palmer