US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO1071

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001071 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS; NSC FOR E.MILLARD 
PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/24/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PTER, CE, Political Parties, LTTE - Peace Process 
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA POLITICAL UPDATE:  GSL LOOKING FOR 
MAJORITY AMID ATTACKS IN PARLIAMENT AND TENSIONS IN THE EAST 
 
REF: COLOMBO 1062 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of Mission.  Reason 1.5 
 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) This update reviews the following political 
developments in Sri Lanka: 
 
-- The government remains in pursuit of an elusive majority 
in Parliament 
 
-- Continued reports of tension and violence in the east 
 
-- The UNP increases the volume of verbal attacks against the 
government 
 
-- The saga continues over the JHU Buddhist monk abused by 
government MPs in Parliament. 
 
================================= 
GSL at work on gaining a Majority 
================================= 
 
2.  (C) Two and half months after the parliamentary elections 
that brought President Chandrika Kumaratunga,s United 
People,s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) party to power, the 
government has been unable to gain a majority (113 seats) in 
the 225-member Parliament.  (Currently, the GSL can claim the 
support of 107 MPs.)  Over the course of several weeks, local 
media has reported that senior GSL officials have been in 
discussions with members of various parties, including the 
Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC) and Sri Lankan Muslim Congress 
(SLMC), to join the government.  To date, only one SLMC MP 
has &crossed over,8 despite stories that multiple deals 
were imminent.  With Parliament meeting only three times 
since the formation of the UPFA government, 114 MPs from 
non-government parties accused the government June 21 of 
obstructing the legislative body from meeting and conducting 
business because it does not have a majority. 
 
3.  (C) COMMENT:  The GSL,s inability to fashion a majority 
in Parliament is quickly becoming a serious liability for the 
President and her party.  Initial public efforts by 
government officials regarding constitutional and electoral 
reforms in the weeks immediately following the April 2 
election have been largely overshadowed by the GSL,s 
fixation on obtaining the majority in Parliament.  The 
continuing parliamentary situation also weakens the 
government's position regarding peace negotiations with the 
LTTE.  The longer the government remains unable to make 
progress on any substantive work in Parliament, the less the 
Tigers will believe in the government's ability to get the 
Sinhalese in the south to agree to an interim administration 
for the north/east, as the peace process continues.  The 
President, according to her office, returns from London the 
evening of June 24 and presumably will turn her attention to 
further parliamentary horse-trading.  END COMMENT. 
 
============================== 
Tension still high in the East 
============================== 
 
4.  (C) Several recent media reports have focused on the 
continuing tension in the east between the Liberation Tigers 
of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and cadre who remain loyal to the 
breakaway eastern rebel leader Karuna.  Although the LTTE has 
denied reports of fighting in the area, the group maintains 
its belief that the Sri Lankan Army (SLA) is using Karuna and 
his faction to target the LTTE.  In a June 19 press 
conference, LTTE Batticaloa-Ampara Special Commander Ramesh 
warned the government not to use the Karuna faction to 
declare war against the LTTE.  A prominent English weekly 
quoted him,  "Serious repercussions could flow if this 
situation continues.  We have information to confirm 
Karuna... is being harbored by the Army.  We also know his 
group is collecting information about us." 
 
5.  (C) During a June 14-15 visit by the DCM to the Ampara 
and Batticaloa areas in the East, military, police and SLMM 
interlocutors emphasized that Karuna elements, although 
driven into small groups since the April military defeat by 
Prabhakaran forces, were active and moving at will.  Small 
skirmishes between the two LTTE groups, largely in the 
"uncleared areas" were commonplace.  Government security 
forces were in touch with both LTTE factions and working hard 
to prevent the LTTE internal struggle from spilling over into 
violence which would affect the larger populace.  To that 
end, GSL security was tight, especially in Batticaloa (with 
armed patrols on the streets, largely ignored by residents 
going about their business) and in smaller towns north of 
Batticaloa towards the area where the April fighting took 
place (for example, several armored personnel carriers with 
troops were patrolling the main road through Eravur, north of 
Batticaloa).  The police had recently discovered and arrested 
several Prabhakaran "pistol gangs" trying to move into 
Batticaloa and other towns to settle scores with Karuna 
elements.  Indeed, a police special task force (STF) officer 
near Ampara told DCM that in many of the small towns under 
his purview, the LTTE offices are empty since the new cadres 
assigned to take over by LTTE headquarters are reluctant to 
take up their duties for fear of being knocked off by Karuna 
elements.  "They turn on the lights and then go home."  The 
general consensus was that Karuna is the strong preference of 
Tamils in the East, but that, drawing from historical 
experience, the population will adapt to whichever side 
prevails.  Given the security tensions, it was quite striking 
the extent to which life was proceeding as normal.  The DCM 
and party had no difficulties in moving about to various 
AID/OTI project opening ceremonies, all of which drew 
sizeable, happy crowds. 
 
6.  (C) COMMENT:  Tension and unrest have simmered in the 
east since the March break by Karuna, with continual gossip 
about the rebel leader's true whereabouts and his presumed 
involvement with the Sri Lankan Army.  These latest news 
reports seem to indicate a sterner LTTE warning to the 
government about aiding attacks in the east.  See Septel on 
latest developments regarding Karuna's status and 
whereabouts.  END COMMENT. 
 
=================================== 
Opposition at work on attacking GSL 
=================================== 
 
7.  (C) Members of the main opposition United National Party 
(UNP) continue to attack the new UPFA government.  On June 
16, G.L. Peiris, UNP spokesman and chief peace negotiator 
under the former government, claimed that the President was 
&a bundle of confusion8 and solely concerned with obtaining 
a majority in Parliament.  He stated that the LTTE appeared 
to be losing confidence in the peace process, as a result of 
contradictions in the President,s recent statements to Tamil 
National Alliance (TNA) MPs and her speech to the nation 
regarding the role of the Tiger,s interim administration 
proposal in the peace talks.  (These comments are the latest 
in Peiris, continual criticism of the GSL,s peace process, 
which he has characterized as a &sham.8)  Sri Lanka Muslim 
Congress leader, Rauf Hakeem, also criticized the changes in 
the President,s position on the peace talks, stating she was 
only interested in power. 
 
8.  (C) Separately, two former UNP ministers have criticized 
the new government,s economic efforts.  Former Commerce and 
Consumer Affairs Minister Ravi Karunanayake (himself the 
subject of a corruption-related arrest warrant) sent a public 
letter to Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) deputy minister 
Sunil Handunetti declaring that election campaign promises to 
address rising food prices and other economic issues had 
remained unfulfilled.  In another public letter, Karu 
Jayasuriya, the former Power and Energy Minister, refuted 
allegations that no power generation projects had been 
initiated during his tenure as minister. 
 
9.  (C) COMMENT:  Although these various attacks are directed 
to individuals, they seem to be part of an orchestrated 
effort by the UNP to criticize the President and her minority 
government.  The UNP is taking its turn at criticizing the 
government, as President Kumaratunga and her Sri Lanka 
Freedom Party (SLFP) did during their past two years in the 
opposition.  Although the President has recently emphasized 
that the SLFP and the UNP combined have a majority of the 
seats in Parliament, it is clear that both sides would have 
to overcome many obstacles, first among them enmity between 
the President and former PM Wickremesinghe, to work together. 
 As for the UNP, its recent behavior does not foretell a 
strong showing by the party in the July 10 Provincial council 
elections.  END COMMENT. 
 
======================================= 
Brawl with Buddhist monks in Parliament 
======================================= 
10.  (C) The sad affair of the Buddhist monk MP from the 
Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) party who was physically abused in 
Parliament on June 8 continues.  JHU party members, annoyed 
by two of the nine JHU MPs who voted with the government in 
the April 22 speaker election, took steps to replace one of 
the offending MPs.  When the Ven. Akmeemana Dayaratana Thero 
was scheduled to swear in as a new JHU MP during the June 8 
Parliament session, UPFA MPs physically tried to prevent the 
swearing-in.  Two JHU Buddhist monk MPs were injured, &in a 
planned attack,8 according to Ven. Omalpe Sobitha Thero, 
another JHU MP who witnessed the brawl.  Government MPs have 
denied attacking the monk, even as one of the monks remains 
hospitalized with bruises.  Mervyn Silva, a UPFA MP, 
allegedly declared he would commit suicide if found complicit 
in the incident. 
 
11.  (C) COMMENT:  Most political interlocutors are certain 
that the monks were manhandled by UPFA MPs and, across the 
political spectrum, many are shocked by the recent events in 
Parliament.  Although the government seems desperate to 
obtain a majority in Parliament and to prevent the loss of 
the GSL-sympathetic monk who was being replaced, the MPs, 
actions have likely only served to further alienate the JHU 
MPs.  END COMMENT. 
 
LUNSTEAD