US embassy cable - 04WELLINGTON539

C O N F I D E N T I A L WELLINGTON 000539 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/ANP 
NSC FOR GREEN, JONES 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, MNUC, PARM, NZ 
SUBJECT: NEW ZEALAND OPPOSITION PARTY BACKS AWAY FROM 
PRE-ELECTION CHANGE TO NUCLEAR LEGISLATION 
 
REF: WELLINGTON 470 
 
Classified By: ACTING DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION, TIMOTHY P. ZUNIGA-BROWN 
FOR REASONS 1.5(B,D) 
 
1. (C/NF) Summary:  New Zealand Opposition National Party 
leader Don Brash has formally declared that his party would 
not propose making changes to NZ's anti-nuclear legislation - 
at least not until after 2005 Parliamentary election.  Brash 
said a future National Government would not change NZ's 
anti-nuclear legislation without a national referendum 
indicating strong public approval.  Since early May National 
has debated an internal party (Creech Commission) report that 
recommends keeping NZ's anti-nuclear policy but amending NZ's 
anti-nuclear legislation to allow nuclear-powered, but not 
nuclear-armed, vessels to enter NZ waters.  Brash's 
announcement is an attempt to remove a controversial issue 
from the pre-election agenda.  Brash privately reiterated to 
Ambassador that he remains personally committed to changing 
the legislation.  End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU/NF) New Zealand Opposition National Party leader Don 
Brash formally declared June 22 that his party would not 
propose making changes to the anti-nuclear legislation - at 
least not before 2005 Parliamentary election.  Brash's 
statement allowed that if National won the upcoming elections 
in 2005 and formed a Government, it would seek improved 
relations with the U.S. and Australia.  He added that a 
National government might commission a referendum on changing 
the anti-nuclear legislation if it appeared that changing the 
legislation would improve NZ's relationship with the U.S. 
However, Brash noted that he was unable to fully "discuss the 
issue with Canberra and Washington" while he was only leader 
of the opposition.  He added that it would be necessary for 
any future National government to understand whether the 
United States would be inclined to normalize bilateral 
relations if NZ retained its no-nukes policy but amended NZ's 
anti-nuclear legislation to allow nuclear-powered, but not 
nuclear-armed, vessels to enter NZ waters.  (Comment:  This 
was the key proposal contained in an internal National Party 
(Creech Commission) report into NZ-US relations released in 
May.  End Comment.) 
 
3. (SBU/NF) The Labour government's reaction to Brash's 
statement was predictable - it accused Brash of raising and 
then walking away from a sensitive "iconic" issue.  However, 
the author of the internal National party report, former 
Deputy Prime Minister Wyatt Creech, chimed in to express his 
public dismay at Brash's announcement, fearing that members 
of the National Party were more frightened over changes to 
the anti-nuclear legislation than the general public.  Creech 
contested the notion that the legislation was "iconic" and 
immutable, pointing to a recent independent poll (reftel) 
that showed a proportionally larger number of New Zealanders 
would support changes to the anti-nuclear legislation 
provided the U.S. did not to send nuclear-powered ships to 
New Zealand.  Creech commented that as people became better 
informed on the matter, their support for a change to the 
legislation rose. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
4. (C/NF) With a paper-thin lead in the polls, Brash feels he 
can ill afford to alienate any potential supporters over 
hypothetical changes to New Zealand's nuclear legislation. 
With this formal statement, Brash is trying to remove a 
potentially damaging plank from his election platform. 
However, he had been careful to leave open the option that 
National will reexamine the issue if it returns to 
Government.  Brash told Ambassador privately on June 24 that 
internal polling points to a slow shift in public opini