US embassy cable - 87PRETORIA17012

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 17012 
 
AF FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY CROCKER FROM AMBASSADOR PERKINS 
 
E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR 
TAGS: SF, PGOV 
SUBJECT: MBEKI'S RELEASE -- WHAT DOES IT MEAN? 
 
1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
2. I BELIEVE THAT THE RELEASE OF GOVAN MBEKI SHOULD 
BE SEEN AS A SIGNIFICANT EFFORT ON THE PART OF THE 
SOUTH AFRICAN GOVERNMENT TO LOOSEN UPTHE POLITICAL 
GRIDLOCK IN THE COUNTRY ON THE KEY ISSUE OF 
BLACK/WHITE DIALOGUE.  I SUSPECT, HOWEVER, THAT THE 
GESTURE AND THE OTHER RELEASES WHICH WE HOPE WILL 
OCCURIN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS ARE AIMED MORE AT 
DRAWING MODERATE INTERNAL BLACK LEADERS INTO A 
DIALOGUE, RATHER THAN AT ENGAGING THE EXTERNAL ANC. 
SIMPLE HUMANITARIAN AND SECURITY CONSIDERATIONS, 
I.E., THE POSSIBLE DEATH IN PRISON OF AGED ANC 
PARTIARCHS, ALSO PLAYED A ROLE IN PRETORIA'S GAMBIT. 
 
 
THE HUMANITARIAN ANGLE 
 
3.  DFA DIRECTOR GENERAL NIEL VAN HEERDEN TOLD US 
YESTERDAY JUST BEFORE MBEKI'S RELEASE THAT TO SOME 
EXTENT P.W. BOTH'S DECISION SHOULD BE SEEN AS 
SOMETHING "FROM ONE OLD MAN TO ANOTHER."  VAN HEERDEN 
SAID THAT IN THE NOVEMBER 4 SAG SESSION WHICH 
FINALIZED THE DECISION, P.W. SAID THE MAN IS SEVENTY 
SEVEN YEARS OLD AND IN GOOD HEALTH FOR  A MAN THAT 
AGE, BUT HE IS NOT A YOUNG MAN.  P.W., IN VAN 
HEERDEN'S VIEW, SEEMED TO BE MUSING OVER HIS OWN 
CIRCUMSTANCES IN THE TWILIGHT YEARS OF HIS LIFE. 
 
4.  VAN HEERDEN SAID THAT THERE HAD BEEN NO ARGUMENT 
ABOUT THE UNCONDITIONALNATURE OF MBEKI'S RELEASE. 
THERE WAS ALSO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT, IF ALL WENT 
WELL, THIS WOULD BE ONLY THE FIRST STEP INA PROCESS 
INVOLVING THE FREEING OF MORE ANC PRISONERS OVER THE 
NEXT FEW MONTHS.  HE DID NOT SPECIFICALLY MENTION 
MANDELA BUT OUR ASSUMPTION IS THAT HE WOULD BE THE 
FINAL ACT IN THE PROCESS. 
 
 
THE POLITICAL ANGLE 
 
5.  VAN HEERDEN STRESSED THAT IN A BROADER CONTEXT 
THE GOVERNMENT IS WELL AWARE THAT THE SITUATION IS 
"TUMBLING HEAD OVER HEELS TOWARD SOME KIND OF 
CATASTROPHE.  A GESTURE OF SOME SORT WAS NEEDED TO 
BREAK UP THE MOMENTUM AND BRING PEOPLE AROUND TO THE 
NEED TO TALK. 
 
6.  CENTRAL TOTHIS CONTEXT IN MY VIEW IS THE 
PERCEPTION INSIDE THE SAG,RECENTLY EXPRESSED TO ME 
BY STOFFEL VAN DER MERWE, THAT CREDIBLE BLACK LEADERS 
INSIDE SOUTH AFRICA SUCH AS BUTHELEZI HAVE PAINTED 
THEMSELVES INTO A CORNER BY REFUSING TO NEGOTIATE 
WITH PRETORIA UNTIL THE POOLSMORE/ROBBEN ISLAND 
GOVERNMENT HAS NO CHOICE BUT TO MEET THAT CONDITION. 
HOWEVER, IN DOING SO, THERE IS NO INTENTION AT THIS 
STAGE TO DEAL WITH THE LUSAKA AND. 
 
7.  I WOULD SERIOUSLY DOUBT THAT STOFFEL HAS ANY 
ILLUSIONS ABOUT AN IMPENDING SEA OF CHANGE IN BLACK 
REJECTION OF CHRIS HEUNIS' NATIONAL COUNCIL. 
HOWEVER, IN PLAYING A LONGER TERM GAME VIS A VIS 
INTERNAL BLACK POLITICAL FIGURES, THE SAG MUST FEEL 
IT MAY NOW BE ABLE TO MOVE A FEW PIECES IN THE RIGHT 
DIRECTION. IN THAT CONNECTION, INFORMATION DUPUTY 
DIRECTOR DAVID STEWART REMARKED TO US EARLIER THIS 
WEEK THAT WHILE THE GOVERNMENT IS OPERATING FROM A 
POSITION OF PHYSICAL STRENGTH,AT SOME STAGE A 
POLITICAL DIALOGUE MUST TAKE PLACE, "IF NOT IN THE 
NATIONAL COUNCIL, THEN IN WHATEVER FORUM FOLLOWS IT 
OR WHATEVER COMES AFTER THAT." 
 
 
OUR REACTION 
 
8.  IN SUM, WE SHOULD HEARTILY WELCOME MBEKI"S 
RELEASE AS WE HAVE DONE AND GENTLY PRESS THE SAG TO 
FOLLOW UP WITH OTHER PRISONERS IN THE MONTHS AHEAD. 
(AT THE SAME TIME, WE MIGHT QUIETLY URGE THE ANC NOT 
TO CROW VICTORY TOO LOUDLY.)  HOWEVER, WE SHOULD HAVE 
NO ILLUSION THAT THIS PARTICULAR SAG STRATEGY -- 
ASIDE FROM ATTEMPTING TO CLAIM SOME HIGH GROUND -- IS 
IN A SENSE AIMED AT A NEAR TERM SAG/ANC DIALOGUE. 
 
PERKINS 
 
 
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