US embassy cable - 04CARACAS2063

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 002063 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
HQ USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
USAID DCHA/OTI FOR RPORTER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, VE 
SUBJECT: FELIPE MUJICA ON HOW TO BEAT CHAVEZ 
 
 
Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR MARK WELLS FOR REASONS 1.4 (d 
) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) On June 17, Political officers met with Felipe Mujica, 
President of Movimiento a Socialismo (MAS) and one of the 
leading Coordinadora Democratica (CD) negotiators with the 
National Electoral Council (CNE).  Mujica outlined what he 
thought should be the CD's campaign strategy for the 
presidential recall referendum.  He largely dismissed 
concerns about the automated voting process and laid out what 
he thought were the lessons learned from the failed Comando 
Ayacucho.  End Summary. 
 
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How to win the recall 
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2.  (C) Mujica said that the CD is trying to overcome 
infighting to select its campaign command, which would 
consist of 13 to 15 members.  He warned that any effort by 
the CD to run on an anti-corruption platform would backfire, 
given the corruption of previous governments.  Instead, the 
MAS President is encouraging the opposition to focus on 
Chavez's failures, particularly the deteriorating economic 
conditions of many Venezuelans.  In addition, he believed 
that a plan that focuses on unity, peace, and the resolution 
of the political conflict would appeal to much of the public, 
which is tired of the ongoing crisis.  Mujica pointed to the 
success the Chilean opposition had in using a similar 
strategy to defeat Pinochet. 
 
3.  (C)  The MAS President noted that the CD is still 
developing its strategy, but was confident that the CD is on 
track.  He also said that it would be clear by July 30 how 
the referendum would come out. 
 
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Not too worried about recent CNE decisions 
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4.  (C)  Mujica again dismissed any concerns that the wording 
of the recall question would benefit Chavez, repeating that 
"We Venezuelans are not idiots" and can properly read the 
recall question.  In regards to the automated voting system, 
which has caused much angst within the opposition movement, 
the MAS President warned that a manual system would also have 
been vulnerable to tampering.  Mujica acknowledged that the 
CD must negotiate as much control and supervision over the 
voting and tabulating process as possible.  He appeared 
confident that the CD's computer experts, particularly in 
SUMATE, would strengthen the opposition's ability to properly 
monitor the automated system. 
 
 
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Chavistas afraid of telling the truth 
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5.  (C) Mujica claimed the Chavistas' unwillingness to tell 
Chavez the truth contributed to the failure of the Comando 
Ayacucho in the signature appeals process.  According to 
Mujica, Comando Ayacucho members were afraid to admit to 
Chavez that they were not going to be able to get enough 
people to recant their signatures in order to prevent a 
recall referendum vote.  He also claimed that membership in 
the new Comando Maisanta is based solely on loyalty to 
Chavez. 
 
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COMMENT 
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6.  (C)  Mujica's thinking tracks with polls that suggest the 
opposition's ideal themes are reconciliation and 
 
re-unification of Venezuela.  The opposition still faces an 
uphill battle and is hampered by its slow internal 
deliberations to select campaign leadership.  As the recall 
vote approaches, the CD leadership will likely face 
increasing pressure to not only demonstrate Chavez's 
failures, but offer a viable alternative to the current 
government. 
SHAPIRO 
 
 
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      2004CARACA02063 - CONFIDENTIAL