US embassy cable - 04ROME2389

UNCLAS  ROME 002389 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, IT, ITALIAN POLITICS 
SUBJECT:  ELECTION RESULTS: SOMETHING GAINED, SOMETHING LOST 
BUT MOSTLY A TIE 
 
REF:  A) ROME 2280, B) FLORENCE 79, C) NAPLES 514 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED; NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (U)  In Italy's EU elections, the governing coalition 
obtained a total of 45.4 percent of the votes, compared to 
46.1 percent obtained by all parties on the center left. 
The remaining 8.5 percent went to other smaller parties. 
mainly center-right oriented.  The center-left now holds 37 
seats, instead of the previous 38 in the European 
Parliament, and the center-right 36 instead of 39.  The 
remaining five seats went to the Emma Bonino list (two), and 
one each to Alessandra Mussolini's Social Alternative, the 
Pensioners Party, and the Tricolor Flame Party (a descendent 
of the former Fascist Party several times removed).  (Note: 
With EU expansion, Italy lost nine EP seats, currently 
holding 78.)  Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and Deputy 
Prime Minister Gianfranco Fini received the most votes 
nationwide, while DS President Massimo D'Alema and former TV 
anchorwoman Lilli Gruber outpolled Berlusconi in their 
respective districts.  Only one region (Sardinia) voted for 
a new government, and here the center-left took over from 
the center-right.  The first round of local elections gives 
little indication of the final winners' tally, because in 
provincial and mayoral elections, the center-left and center- 
right have thus far largely kept what they already had.  The 
June 26-27 run-offs may highlight differences, but for now, 
the hue and cry appears to be greatly exaggerated - not much 
of a surprise in Italian politics. 
 
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EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT RESULTS 
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2.  (U)  Compared to previous EP elections, Forza Italia 
(FI) lost more than four points, obtaining 21 percent 
against the previous 25.2 percent.  National Alliance (AN) 
gained a little with 11.5 percent against the previous 10.3 
percent, and Union of Christian Democrats of the Center 
(UDC) increased markedly to 5.9 percent from the 4.8 percent 
earned previously by the Christian Democratic parties, which 
combined to form UDC.  The Northern League (Lega) gained 
slightly -- five percent against the previous 4.5.  The 
United Socialists/New Socialist Party led by former Foreign 
Minister Gianni De Michelis, now with the center-right, won 
two percent.  This gives the center-right a total of 45.4 
percent against the previous 44.8 percent. 
 
3.  (SBU)  "United under the Olive Tree," aka the "Prodi 
List," did not shine, earning 31.1 percent; in 1999 EP 
elections, individual parties in the list obtained a total 
of 32.5 percent.  Far left groups all gained:  Communist 
Renewal (RC) celebrated its 6.1 percent against the previous 
4.3; Greens also gained with 2.5 percent against 1.8; and 
the Italian Communist Party (PDCI) slightly increased its 
ground with 2.4 against 2.2.  Additionally, the Di Pietro- 
Occhetto list, a left-leaning party running for the first 
time, got 2.1 percent.  Added to this grouping are also the 
Sudtirol Volkspartei (SVP) and Union Valdopain (UV) (two 
minority linguistically-based groups from Northern Italy), 
which did not obtain any seats, but their 0.6 percent allows 
the center-left to show a vote total of 46.1 percent. 
 
4.  (U)  On the outskirts of the two major groupings are the 
Bonino list, whose 2.3 percent represents a significant 
downfall from the party's 8.5 percent showing in 1999. 
Alessandra Mussolini's far-right Social Alternative took 1.2 
percent from two other extreme right parties, Social 
Movement and Tricolor Flame, which previously had a combined 
1.6 percent and in these elections garnered only 0.8 
percent. 
 
5.  (U)  Due to proportional voting, which seeks to 
guarantee representation by smaller groups, a candidate with 
only 2,641 votes, such as Tricolor Flame member Luca 
Romagnoli, will get a seat in Strasbourg, while Prodi List 
candidate Ferdinando Latteri (17th in order of preferential 
votes received) will not be elected with 151,253.  The 
candidates who received the most votes nationwide are 
Berlusconi and Fini, who ran in all five EP districts. 
Reviewing the five districts separately, candidates who 
received the most votes in their districts are, in order, 
D'Alema in the South, Gruber in the center, and Berlusconi 
in the North-West, North-East, and the Islands. 
 
6.  (U)  Elected candidates who cannot legally remain in 
their current office while serving in the EP (i.e., national 
 
 
level elected leaders) must choose which position they will 
accept/retain, generally within a month.  This means that 
members of the Italian Parliament who accept a newly-won EP 
seat will have to be replaced.  Italian parliamentary 
elections use mixed direct and proportional voting. 
Supplementary elections will be held to replace departing 
parliamentarians who were elected directly by majority vote, 
while those who were elected proportionally will be replaced 
by the next candidate on the party's list for the 2001 
elections.  In the case of candidates who retain their 
Italian position and forsake the EP post (as Prime Minister 
Berlusconi has said he will do), the next candidate on the 
party's list for the EP in these (2004) elections will be 
named. 
 
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REGIONAL 
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7.  (SBU)  Sardinia, the only region electing a new 
government, chose Renato Soru as its president ("governor"), 
although a few ballots remain contested.  Soru, an 
independent backed by a center-left coalition, is currently 
shown with 50.16 percent against former FI Regional 
President Mauro Pili's 40.47.  (In previous elections, Pili 
obtained 48.1 percent of the votes.)  It will take at least 
a few weeks for the new Sardinian regional government to 
organize itself, although Soru is already working to pull 
together his team.  The regional government does not have 
direct control over decisions regarding construction plans 
by U.S. Naval personnel using Italian bases in Sardinia. 
However, Soru campaigned on an "ask the Americans to leave" 
platform; his election will make diplomatic and outreach 
programs by and on behalf of U.S. personnel in La Maddalena 
and Santo Stefano more challenging.  It may also make the 
Italian government, which does approve U.S. Naval plans, 
more skittish about follow-through, at least in the short 
term. 
 
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LOCAL RACES 
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8.  (U)  Much of the Italian and some foreign media has 
reported a smashing victory for the center-left, which won 
in 38 of the 63 provinces, while the center-right won in 
three.  An analysis concentrating on those provinces that 
changed hands between center-right and center-left, however, 
provides a slightly different perspective.  Only two 
provinces registered a changeover, Cuneo (in Piemonte) and 
Taranto (in Puglia).  The center-left took Taranto from the 
center-right, and the reverse occurred in Cuneo.  Much the 
same thing happened in the thirty provincial capital cities 
electing new mayors and city councils.  Before elections, 
the center-left held twenty of these cities, and the center- 
right ten.  In the June 12-13 elections, the center-left won 
outright in eighteen cities, and the center-right in six. 
Mayors for the remaining six cities will be decided in June 
26-27 run-off elections.  (Note:  Some cities changed hands, 
so that the 18 now held by the center-left are not all part 
of the 20 it held prior to elections.  The same is true on 
the center-right.) 
 
9.  Run-off elections for these six municipalities and for 
22 provincial governments will finally determine left-right 
breakdown.  The six cities are currently split evenly 
between the center-left and center-right.  Our analysis 
suggests the two coalitions should still retain three cities 
each after the run-offs, but not the same ones.  (If true, 
the center-left will increase by one its hold on the 
provincial capitals, which held elections this year.)  Early 
predictions suggest that the center-right will win in most 
of the northern provincial races, a result made more certain 
by the Northern League's June 17 agreement to run together 
with Forza Italia in the local run-offs.  (Note: In the 1999 
elections, the center-right parties ran separately.  As a 
result, most of the northern provinces went to the center- 
left.)  In total, then, the center-right looks poised to win 
in some 12 provinces, and the center-left in two, assuming 
repeated high voter turnout.  Eight provinces remain too 
close to call. 
SEMBLER 
 
 
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	2004ROME02389 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED